fredissy

The S&P 500 in Real Terms

Why not just get with a good method for trend timing and forget all this crap? Inflation will eat everyone alive that does not beat it in the sense of higher average returns over a long period of time.

This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower

Hey freya.....you wrote:

fredissy, if you bought anything in 1928, you would either be Long Dead or in some Care Center.

Very funny! But the point of the article was to engage in an exercize in relative values. What part of gold costing 47.85 times more now than it did in 1928 did you not understand?

This is not a forum for stupid attacks like yours. By the way.... I am 105 years old.....I am not in a day care center....I am sure I could beat you in an arm wrestling contest....and, I used to date your grandmother back in 1928!!

This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower

If I can look at gold as a store of value, and not an investment in which to seek a gain, I find the following: In 1928 gold was valued at roughly $20.00 per ounce. That same ounce of gold was valued this past Friday at $957.00. The gold hasn't changed, so it must be our dollar that has changed. What gold you could buy in 1928 for $1.00 cost you $47.85 this pat Friday.
The Dow-30 was valued at 240 in 1928. So in relation to gold, and having no growth whatsoever, I would expect it to be valued at 240 times 47.85, or 11484 this past Friday. It was valued at 8277. That means that in 81 years of holding the market, I have lost 27.9% in real purchasing power, as purchasing power relates to gold. To rub salt into the wound if I sold everything, I would have a capital gains tax to pay on all of my (HA HA HA HA) capital gains. i.e. 8277 - 240 = 8037 times 15% = $1205.55 in capital gains tax. So my real loss is more like -38.4%.
But, guess what? When I bought that Dow-30 in 1928 I conservatively anticipated that I could expect a 1% per year growth rate on average. That would have compounded by 124% over the 81 year stretch. So 240 times 124% plus the 240 would have my Dow worth 537.60 (in 1928 dollars) That is a 25,724 Dow -30 value in today's dollars. Do you get the picture??
A very good article as an eye opener. I hope I have opened a few more.
I am a market timer and have a very good model to guide me through this. When one can compound gains at more than 25% per annum on average the effects of inflation are well overcome, and gold is used primarily to measure how badly our dollar is being ruined systematically, and how the system is systematically raping the buy and hope type investor.
Check me out....StrategicTrendT...

It's Not a Recession, It's the New Reality

Your view is right on, friend. We have quite a way (down) to go yet. When the average house price is 2 to 2-1/2 times the average wage, we will be about there.

Short Term Tactics and Long Term Strategy

I am with you on principle. Not sure yet of the timing. Scaling in short positions seem wise.

Stock Market Rally Is for Suckers as Credit Destruction Lingers

I don't know about his numbers...all technicians have numbers, just take your choice. But, his premise is right on. Mama always told me that money doesn't grow on trees. That is true. But, money does grow in the US Treasury. Mama didn't know crap about that. She lived in a world when credit was hard to get, and people lived simpler and more fruitful lives. They lived within their means. As a child , I used to make toys out of stones and little pieces of wood. I used to play in the dirt....I played in the dirt a lot. I am 75 and hardly ever am I sick.....I wonder if playing in dirt had anything to do with that?
No, I don't know if his numbers are correct, but his premise is. A society cannot print, borrow, and spend its way to prosperity. And bring up our children in a totally clean environment where they can be a comfortable 50 pounds overweight doesn't seem to bode well for our future either.
Our society, our economy, our markets, and our general well being, are all headed for HELL. The only question is......How long will it take

Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012?

Hey Ying Yang.....That the market may lose 50% of its present value by 2012 does not preclude the posibility that it will gain on a rally in the meantime.....Duh!

Buy and Hold is Dead

Buy and Hold has always been dead. The advent of the "Efficient Market Hypothesis" breathed life into the idea, and the zombie walked. The zombie (Mutual Funds) have been feasting on the flesh of average investors ever since. Not only do most of them underperform on a nominal value basis, but when you consider the effects of persistent dollar destruction (inflation), virtually all of them are under water in real terms of value. This is hardly any way for the average person to save for a future purpose. There are two ways to succeed: Know what W.Buffett knows, and have the money to back up your play. or, Find a good trend following service and, once discovered, stick with the plan. Check us out.

Krugman, Don't Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater Just Yet

No.....throw Krugman out with the bathwater.

Cramer's Stop Trading! Cramer Calls a Bottom (3/26/09)

I read Crammer when I am feeling down and need a good laugh to feel better. Crammer supplies all the humor I need. He is a great entertainer and stand up comic.

Gold Against Stocks Over the Decades: Not as Impressive

Since 1975, gold has risen by 6.8. The basic stock market has risen by a factor of 8.5, and of course there were dividends to boot. So, you are certainly right, looking back that far. But now that the "fraud" that has been our economy over those years has been revealed. And the new crooks that run things are perpetrating that fraud to ever higher levels, can any sane person believe that the future (if we have one) is going to look like the past? Good article....I think you wanted responses. This one is for you, and everyone. Buy some gold.......and buy some silver too!!

Credit Card Cancer

Does anybody realize that millions of pissed-off people are loading up their credit cards only to default on them toward the end of this year. People will seek their own bailout. After all.....the government will pay for it all, right? This is the next big story....watch!!

Tuesday's Big Rally Likely Means Absolutely Nothing

Markets go up and markets go down. The best way to succeed is to buy low and sell high..........duh!! Buy and hold? No, Buy and Hope, or Buy and Hang, or Buy on Hype. The only way out is to have a good way to time the peaks and valleys.

Overleveraging: An Unsustainable Way of Life

What???

Leaking Geithner: Good News for Currencies, Markets

This "news?" (Hype) was leaked an hour before the market closed. I found it interesting that the market was selling down (as it should) until this BS hit the street. I can not help but wonder how many "Cronies got the word that this would be leaked so they could get "LONG" at the bottom. I am pretty damned sick and tired of this market manipulation by the poiticians and their freinds. This stuff should not come out until the market closes, just like major corporation news. How about it folks??