fredissy

This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower

Hey freya.....you wrote:

fredissy, if you bought anything in 1928, you would either be Long Dead or in some Care Center.

Very funny! But the point of the article was to engage in an exercize in relative values. What part of gold costing 47.85 times more now than it did in 1928 did you not understand?

This is not a forum for stupid attacks like yours. By the way.... I am 105 years old.....I am not in a day care center....I am sure I could beat you in an arm wrestling contest....and, I used to date your grandmother back in 1928!!

This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower

If I can look at gold as a store of value, and not an investment in which to seek a gain, I find the following: In 1928 gold was valued at roughly $20.00 per ounce. That same ounce of gold was valued this past Friday at $957.00. The gold hasn't changed, so it must be our dollar that has changed. What gold you could buy in 1928 for $1.00 cost you $47.85 this pat Friday.
The Dow-30 was valued at 240 in 1928. So in relation to gold, and having no growth whatsoever, I would expect it to be valued at 240 times 47.85, or 11484 this past Friday. It was valued at 8277. That means that in 81 years of holding the market, I have lost 27.9% in real purchasing power, as purchasing power relates to gold. To rub salt into the wound if I sold everything, I would have a capital gains tax to pay on all of my (HA HA HA HA) capital gains. i.e. 8277 - 240 = 8037 times 15% = $1205.55 in capital gains tax. So my real loss is more like -38.4%.
But, guess what? When I bought that Dow-30 in 1928 I conservatively anticipated that I could expect a 1% per year growth rate on average. That would have compounded by 124% over the 81 year stretch. So 240 times 124% plus the 240 would have my Dow worth 537.60 (in 1928 dollars) That is a 25,724 Dow -30 value in today's dollars. Do you get the picture??
A very good article as an eye opener. I hope I have opened a few more.
I am a market timer and have a very good model to guide me through this. When one can compound gains at more than 25% per annum on average the effects of inflation are well overcome, and gold is used primarily to measure how badly our dollar is being ruined systematically, and how the system is systematically raping the buy and hope type investor.
Check me out....StrategicTrendT...