klarsolo

IndexIQ Planning First Merger Arbitrage ETF

Adam, on the IndexIQ webpage the underlying index still lists ultrashort ETFs as holdings. Where do you get the information that futures will be used instead?


On Nov 06 06:11 PM Adam Patti wrote:

> No ultra short ETFs will be used in the portfolio. Futures are used
> for short exposure. Thanks.

IndexIQ Planning First Merger Arbitrage ETF

What I don't like about this fund is the partial market hedge it employs by using ultrashort ETFs. These things just suck in timeframes longer than one day. Compare the index performance of this fund with S&P UNHEDGED long-only merger arbitrage funds. The ride of S&P's index during last years market turmoil was smoother than the ride of this hedged vehicle's index, even though the overall performance over the last 2 years is almost identical.

If I had the choice I'd always go unhedged only. Let's hope ishares comes out with a similar fund soon based on the S&P index. With a solid index I think merger arbitrage can be core holding for any portfolio.

Two More Bond ETFs from PIMCO: FIVZ and ZROZ

How can a long end strips fund pay dividends monthly?

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

I agree. Strangely people either think stocks will go the moon or they will crash and burn. Nothing in between. Nobody ever seems to believe that we may just go sideways in a volatile trading range for months or even years.

Every time markets go down bears scream in anticipation of major selloff. And everytime markets go up bulls come out and scream "in your face!" back at the bears.

You'd think that after a while both parties learn that stocks do whatever they want and you better be prepared for *everything*. But no, not ever gonna happen.


On Oct 30 09:40 PM cstauffer wrote:

> I am frankly very glad that the sentiment on these boards and many
> others is so negative. This snap back bull market that we have had
> since March will not end with so many people scared or willing to
> be scared whenever the market goes through a profit taking period
> such as we are experiencing recently. I am really not sure what
> it is that people want at this point in the recovery coming off such
> a significant downturn. I certainly do not expect robust top line
> growth and I certainly would expect a significant portion of positive
> economic activity to have been "stimulated" by the stimulus.

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

How many posts like this could have been written at numerous points in history? What do you think people would have posted during the Great Depression? Their list of problems would make you quake in your bones.

But where were stocks when the biggest problems of the Great Depression were finally taken care of? Where they still at the same level?

Do you really think in 3 years from now the big problems are resolved but the S&P is magically 30 % lower or still on the same level? Or do you think in 3 years from now the problems will be even worse and we're 50 % lower?

On Oct 30 09:20 PM marketman54 wrote:

> You want the basics and the fundamentals, it is very easy, here they
> are:
>
> 1. 26 million out of work and growing.
> 2. No one going back to work in over a year.
> 3. Unemployment benefits running out.
> 4. GM wants another 50 billion or good bye!!
> 5. GE wants 80 billion or good bye!!!
> 6. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are getting flooded with additional
> foreclosures.
> 7. AIG, not worth a penny????
> 8. Financials still no clarity, foreclosures up, auto and credit
> card defaults up, credit swaps no value, loans down.....
> 9. Auto sales down from 14 million to 9 million.
> 10. Travel and business travel, way down.
> 11. Leisure industry down,
> 12. Dining down.
> 13. Heavy industry, down.
> 14. Durable goods, down.
> 15. Consumer goods, down.
>
> Virtually every sector of the market is worse off than a year ago
> but there is no reflection in the market for this.
>
> Uncle Sam is spending all my money but has run out. The balloons
> will pop and we will crash again and the small guy will be hurt a
> second time.
>
> If you think there was alot of money sitting on the side now, wait
> till the second coming!!!
>
> Things are bad and getting worse and there is nothing that my lying
> government and HOPEFUL wallstreeters can say that will make me believe
> that it is anything other than pitiful out on the street.

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

Dude, I'm not here to convince you of anything. If you think we're overbought and will go down, by all means go short or stay short. You can make a case for anything; there's always plenty of data to support any kind of viewpoint.

I'm not refuting we've had a big rally. We've also had the worst selloff in history preceeding the largest rally in history. So what?

We can easily go down from here. But we can also easily go up from here. Only people with not much trading experience think something is obvious. Nothing ever is.

On Oct 30 08:28 PM Carl Spackler wrote:

> Let's not get ridiculous. I could play the same game and say it
> is overvalued because in 1832 the S&P was at 12 and now its at
> 1036. There is no refuting that over the last six months we have
> had an unprecedented rally. Name one other time where you got 60%
> in six months......silence .........that's right its hard to beat
> it. Face it, this baby had gone a long way and maybe, just maybe
> its over.

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

What do you call almost 11 years and flat returns (S&P is on 1998 levels)? Or returns over the last 13 months: -3 %. Is that the biggest rally ever? Look at other timeframes than just the last 6 months only. Some party...not.


On Oct 30 04:48 PM Carl Spackler wrote:

> If the bearishness was chart topping, what do you call 6 months and
> 60% - oversold? Everyone has a reason why the party has to continue,
> but we all know that eventually all parties end. Sometimes they end
> because everyone is tired of the party and no one wants to be the
> last one there. Everyone bought into yesterday and just assumed that
> the market would rocket up (just like it has previously). When it
> did not follow through today, everyone ran for the exits.
>
> Big question is, if you have a lot of people with profits in various
> positions, do they decide to take their profits and sell now, or
> do they get greedy and hope for more. Value and fundamentals will
> not enter into their decision very much - fear and greed will.

Breathing New Life into Old Strategy: John Meriwether Is Back Again

Good article. The tail risk of options is deceiving, because most of the time it doesn't show up, enticing people to load up on risk and shoot for the moon. But when it does show up, it wipes these people out.

When Morgan Stanley Almost Died

Every management decision, even in non-banking sectors, deals with an uncertain future, only based on probabilities. That makes every manager a gambler of some sort. Only the stakes are sometimes higher, sometimes lower.


On Oct 05 08:50 AM a fat panda wrote:

> " Mack is clear-eyed and doing the right thing for his employees
> and his shareholders. But how close did his gamble come to failing?
> "
>
> Felix,
>
> This story simply shows that John Mack is a gambler. He wins some
> and loses some. Remember it was his previous gambles that drove his
> company close to failing. His effort here simply shows that he is
> willing to double or nothing all the way to the end.

Of the Robert Shiller / James Kwak debate over financial innovation and its comparison to technology innovation, Free Exchange notes that Moore's Law-like efficiency gains don't operate the same way in finance. It would be one thing if, as in an iPod, increasingly complex circuitry made it easier for you to move through playlists and video collections. "Instead, innovation is like those same wires and circuitboards dumped in front of consumers, who are then asked by a loan officer where he should start soldering."

What a poor comparison. Everything financial is in a constant state of flux, completely unlike the relatively stable world of electronics and physics laws. If gadget makers had to deal with the same amount of uncertainty there probably would be no products at all to bring to the market. I don't think a lot of people would appreciate ipods that sometimes work great, sometimes not at all, sometimes have TV functionality, and then at other times not even a click wheel.

Harry Dent: India a Better Long-Term Bet than China

There are not a lot of people with a worse track record than Harry Dent. He must be the worst trend follower in history. What puzzles me is that people who truly have no skill whatsoever keep getting a forum in books, on TV, etc. The same with political pundits. What a strange world we're living in.

Is it a magazine? Or a TV? In its latest promotional stunt, CBS (CBS) will insert thousands of tiny screens into magazine Entertainment Weekly (TWX). Each of the screens, which can play 40 minutes of clips from CBS shows, probably cost in the "low teens."

What a waste of resources.

Why This Rally Will Continue

Sentiment check: 1) count how many people make fun of bullish articles on Seekingalpha. 2) count how many thumbs up these people get for their bearish comments. That's all you need to know to see how the smart money on seekingalpha is currently positioned.

If you're looking for a double-dip recession, Edward Harrison points at what to look for. Warning: A second dip could be worse than the first.

And for every story in which healthcare isn't as bad as people think you can come up with one where it is even worse. My Mother-in-law, whose husband was self employed until he died a few years ago, now has to pay through the nose to get any coverage at all (and can pretty much only choose from 1 plan - nobody else is willing to take her on).

It's easy for people who never had any issues to rally against reform, because the issues of other people are just not real to them. But that doesn't make it less real for people who are affected.


On Aug 04 10:28 PM Henry Buttal wrote:

> klarsolo,
>
> Actually, most states have insurance for people who fall through
> the cracks. I know, b/c my wife has had health problems, and can't
> always get individual insurance. Group is no problem.
>
> So I get insurance for her through a state contracted plan (supplied
> by BCBS). My kids and I are on a regular plan, as I am consulting
> right now. So she would fall into the transient 47 million always
> thrown up as why we need Obamacare. And yet she can still get reasonable
> coverage. If you read up on the different delineations in Medicare,
> and the lack of cost control of each, you would understand better
> why even people like myself are STILL against the current badly written
> bill.

If you're looking for a double-dip recession, Edward Harrison points at what to look for. Warning: A second dip could be worse than the first.

This still doesn't address the problem of having the wrong incentives throughout the entire healthcare system, be it at insurance companies, or hospitals, or doctors.

With the current economic debacle we all know what happens eventually when incentives are misaligned.

I see a lot of lies thrown out there to thwart reform. If the system really was as good as people thought you could let facts speak for themselves. So far I haven't seen a lot of facts to maintain the status quo, except from insurance companies who love the fact that less people are insured and more profits are assured than 10 years ago.

On Aug 04 10:28 PM Henry Buttal wrote:

> klarsolo,
>
> Actually, most states have insurance for people who fall through
> the cracks. I know, b/c my wife has had health problems, and can't
> always get individual insurance. Group is no problem.
>
> So I get insurance for her through a state contracted plan (supplied
> by BCBS). My kids and I are on a regular plan, as I am consulting
> right now. So she would fall into the transient 47 million always
> thrown up as why we need Obamacare. And yet she can still get reasonable
> coverage. If you read up on the different delineations in Medicare,
> and the lack of cost control of each, you would understand better
> why even people like myself are STILL against the current badly written
> bill.