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klarsolo

klarsolo
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  • FOMC Minutes: Support is growing for additional action "fairly soon," unless there is clear strengthening of the economic recovery. QE3 is among possible actions, but other options discussed included extending the announced period of ZIRP, or reducing interest rates on reserves. [View news story]
    I was thinking that that may have been the case...wouldn't be the first time
    Aug 22 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes: Support is growing for additional action "fairly soon," unless there is clear strengthening of the economic recovery. QE3 is among possible actions, but other options discussed included extending the announced period of ZIRP, or reducing interest rates on reserves. [View news story]
    It is saying "reducing interest rates on reserves"
    Aug 22 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outperformance By Low Volatility Equity ETFs [View article]
    SPLV may very well change its composition if any of its components starts to exhibit increased volatility. Don't assume that it will stay 74 % in utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare forever.
    Aug 13 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals Do Not Support The Stock Market Rally [View article]
    rpbalan, thank you for keeping track of these things so that newbies don't get suckered in. The only correct reaction to 9 out of 10 macro articles on Seeking Alpha is to laugh at them.
    Aug 9 12:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals Do Not Support The Stock Market Rally [View article]
    Anybody who's been doing this for a while should know that markets can completely detach from what you may perceive to be the "fundamentals". How full of yourself do you have to be anyway to think that the market should adhere to what you think it should adhere to?

    Warren Buffet trades on fundamentals too, yet I'm pretty certain he would not share a bearish view on equities at the moment. That should make you think.

    To me price action trumps whatever I think the fundamentals are. If I'm bearish but prices point higher, I'd put my fundamentals on the back burner until the technical picture supports them more.
    Aug 9 12:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500? [View article]
    How well does your 22-factor model work in practice? Do you actually trade it? Or is purely theoretical? I suspect the latter.
    Aug 7 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500? [View article]
    Not sure where I said that I'm an uber-bull or anything. All I said is that right now I'm in the bullish camp, based on the few indicators that I pay attention to. I do not care to list them in detail, because that will not solve anything. You can always find plenty of indicators that will tell you anything you want, but I'm using what works for me. I'm prepared that anything can happen at any time, including a 30 % overnight drop based on completely unexpected news.

    If your indicators work for you, then you should keep using those, and completely disregard what I'm saying anyway.
    Aug 6 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500? [View article]
    What technical indicators are you looking at? Just volume? Because the charts sure point to higher prices. I'd always subordinate volume to actual price action, but maybe that's just me.
    Aug 6 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500? [View article]
    If you think the economy = the stock market, especially in the short run, then you've already lost
    Aug 6 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500? [View article]
    If everything you see suggests declines then you're really doing it wrong. I guess earnings do not count, nor the bottoming housing sector, which takes one of the biggest drags on GDP of the table?
    Aug 6 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500? [View article]
    How did corporate balance sheets look like in 1937? Was everybody sitting on piles of cash as they do now? Piles of cash are not adequately reflected in earnings or P/E ratios (unless interest rates are high and the cash is earning a decent income), but they take out some of the business risk and thus justify higher P/Es.
    Aug 6 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500? [View article]
    They may mean revert, but if that happens while sales pick up because the economy continues to recover it may not have any effect on earnings at all.

    Also, I would never go short or go long against the trend based on valuation alone, no matter what the method is. If you can build a contrarian bet that has little downside but a lot more upside, go for it. But shorting because you think stocks are overvalued here? Not a winner in my book. But to each his own.
    Aug 6 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500? [View article]
    It is fascinating. In 2000 people ignored common valuation methods and favored "clicks" and "eyeballs" to justify their bullish position.

    Fast forward to today where people once again ignore common valuation methods and instead favor 10 year P/E lookbacks that include two hefty bear markets to justify their bearish position.

    I know it's tempting to use the Shiller P/E because it reasonably worked in the past. But how many of those periods included two 50 % bear markets and corresponding temporary earnings breakdowns,enormous global uncertainty and credit market collapses?
    Aug 6 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America - Under-Reserved And Overvalued [View article]
    Anybody who claims to know exactly what will happen in the markets in the future should not be given a cent to invest.
    Jul 26 12:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I've Learned From My First Trades [View article]
    lostalloncoal, you should read up on what Obama actually said. He was talking about how anybody with a thriving business relies on infrastructure provided by the government, so to say that somebody build a business from scratch and didn't need the government at all is obviously not correct.

    Alternatively you can keep believing whatever you want, but don't mistake it for the truth.
    Jul 18 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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705 Comments
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