klarsolo

klarsolo
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  • An Almost Risk-Free Way For Annual Return Of 50%+  [View article]
    Relying on the stability of correlations as a primary form of tail risk hedging is not advisable, in my opinion.

    How does the strategy perform if all markets go on a multi-year tear? You will be crying for your Mom in no time.

    To me prudent risk management does not just look back in time to arrive at answers. Ask yourself the simple question instead: "What is the worst that could ever happen and how do I best hedge that?"
    Dec 15, 2012. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • President Obama's proposal to extend the middle-class tax cuts before reforming the tax code and entitlements is a "sucker's game," declares Wilbur Ross. There's no trade-off there, it's just the president saying give me what I want, and I'll agree to talk about the rest later. What's being obscured by Washington is that the fiscal cliff issue isn't about taxes and revenue, but that our country is spending way too much. “You can't solve the bulk of the problem with revenues," Ross says. "It’s not going to happen.”  [View news story]
    I thought it's more like "let's do what we both agree on" instead of "let's give me what I want", but I can understand that from Wilbur's perspective it's difficult to see reality for what it is.
    Nov 15, 2012. 08:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Stock Portfolio  [View article]
    If you only wanted to talk about the Canadian banking sector, why did you wrap it in anecdotes of people who made out like bandits by being absolutely undiversified? Even the headline is misleading then, so whoever picked that headline from Seeking Alpha also didn't quite get what you were going for.

    It really is the worst kind of advice when it comes to investing. I know it makes people all warm and fuzzy to think about nailing it and buying the next MSFT or AAPL with everything they have, but the odds are so overwhelmingly against them that nothing good will come from it for the vast majority.

    Yes, Canadian banks may have done well, but what about almost all U.S. banks or European banks? The total opposite. Now imagine having had all your retirement savings in those. But hey, if you have such foresight to pick the winners I guess one stock portfolios are indeed the right thing for you.
    Nov 6, 2012. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Stock Portfolio  [View article]
    It is sad that articles like this are posted here. Obviously some stocks crush the indices. It is just as obvious that even more stocks greatly lag them and it should be known that it is not easy to discern in advance which ones will do good and which ones will do bad.

    Advice like "hey, putting it all in your company stock is worth thinking about" should never be given, regardless whether it sometimes works out well. Sometimes you can do foolish things and not be punished, even get rewarded, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a foolish thing to do.
    Nov 6, 2012. 11:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why PIMCO's Junk-Bond ETF Is The Best Of Its Kind  [View article]
    Yes, those are actual terms. You don't usually encounter them when you buy bond funds, but if you ever trade individual bonds you may still see them.
    Sep 13, 2012. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes: Support is growing for additional action "fairly soon," unless there is clear strengthening of the economic recovery. QE3 is among possible actions, but other options discussed included extending the announced period of ZIRP, or reducing interest rates on reserves.  [View news story]
    I was thinking that that may have been the case...wouldn't be the first time
    Aug 22, 2012. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes: Support is growing for additional action "fairly soon," unless there is clear strengthening of the economic recovery. QE3 is among possible actions, but other options discussed included extending the announced period of ZIRP, or reducing interest rates on reserves.  [View news story]
    It is saying "reducing interest rates on reserves"
    Aug 22, 2012. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outperformance By Low Volatility Equity ETFs  [View article]
    SPLV may very well change its composition if any of its components starts to exhibit increased volatility. Don't assume that it will stay 74 % in utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare forever.
    Aug 13, 2012. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals Do Not Support The Stock Market Rally  [View article]
    rpbalan, thank you for keeping track of these things so that newbies don't get suckered in. The only correct reaction to 9 out of 10 macro articles on Seeking Alpha is to laugh at them.
    Aug 9, 2012. 12:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals Do Not Support The Stock Market Rally  [View article]
    Anybody who's been doing this for a while should know that markets can completely detach from what you may perceive to be the "fundamentals". How full of yourself do you have to be anyway to think that the market should adhere to what you think it should adhere to?

    Warren Buffet trades on fundamentals too, yet I'm pretty certain he would not share a bearish view on equities at the moment. That should make you think.

    To me price action trumps whatever I think the fundamentals are. If I'm bearish but prices point higher, I'd put my fundamentals on the back burner until the technical picture supports them more.
    Aug 9, 2012. 12:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500?  [View article]
    How well does your 22-factor model work in practice? Do you actually trade it? Or is purely theoretical? I suspect the latter.
    Aug 7, 2012. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500?  [View article]
    Not sure where I said that I'm an uber-bull or anything. All I said is that right now I'm in the bullish camp, based on the few indicators that I pay attention to. I do not care to list them in detail, because that will not solve anything. You can always find plenty of indicators that will tell you anything you want, but I'm using what works for me. I'm prepared that anything can happen at any time, including a 30 % overnight drop based on completely unexpected news.

    If your indicators work for you, then you should keep using those, and completely disregard what I'm saying anyway.
    Aug 6, 2012. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500?  [View article]
    What technical indicators are you looking at? Just volume? Because the charts sure point to higher prices. I'd always subordinate volume to actual price action, but maybe that's just me.
    Aug 6, 2012. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500?  [View article]
    If you think the economy = the stock market, especially in the short run, then you've already lost
    Aug 6, 2012. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The S&P 500?  [View article]
    If everything you see suggests declines then you're really doing it wrong. I guess earnings do not count, nor the bottoming housing sector, which takes one of the biggest drags on GDP of the table?
    Aug 6, 2012. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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