Friday's gloomy reports show the world economic outlook to be in dire straits. As U.S. employment growth slows sharply, Chinese factory output barely growing and European manufacturing falling deeper into malaise, the calls are going to grow for another round of stimulus from the Fed. Whether or not it wants to step in to catch that falling knife, however, is anyone's guess. [View news story]
It's 2008 PTSD. Anytime any indicator weakens anywhere it is now assumed that the worst possible extrapolation of that weakening is also the most probable outcome.
Friday's gloomy reports show the world economic outlook to be in dire straits. As U.S. employment growth slows sharply, Chinese factory output barely growing and European manufacturing falling deeper into malaise, the calls are going to grow for another round of stimulus from the Fed. Whether or not it wants to step in to catch that falling knife, however, is anyone's guess. [View news story]
Absolutely. In a world in which the private sector hides terrified in treasuries and German government bonds, the public sector should also stop spending. The recipe for success.
Market recap: Stocks suffered their worst day of the year after woeful U.S. jobs data make it clear the economy "isn't just slowing down, it's pulling up the emergency brake." The Dow is now negative YTD, and the S&P breached its 200-day MA. Treasurys and gold were the day's go-to holdings; 10-year yields slipped below 1.5%. Crude oil plunged to $83.23. NYSE losers led winners five to one. [View news story]
Absolutely. If you want low volatility with no returns, Hussman is the man for you. Since he didn't even think the market was of decent value in March 2009 one has to wonder what it takes for him to become bullish.
Market recap: Stocks suffered their worst day of the year after woeful U.S. jobs data make it clear the economy "isn't just slowing down, it's pulling up the emergency brake." The Dow is now negative YTD, and the S&P breached its 200-day MA. Treasurys and gold were the day's go-to holdings; 10-year yields slipped below 1.5%. Crude oil plunged to $83.23. NYSE losers led winners five to one. [View news story]
As a matter of fact he's been telling us that for years. Over the last 10 years he underperformed the S&P 500 by almost 1.6 % per year. Definitely guru worthy.
Americans owed $904B in student loans at the end of Q1, nearly 8% higher Y/Y, with 8.7% of the loans more than 90 days past due, according to the NY Federal Reserve. And with many loans in deferment or grace periods, the actual situation could be even worse. The rise in student loan delinquencies comes as the share of people falling behind on all other types of debt is stabilizing. [View news story]
Or you can do what Germany does, and just crank up the quality of your products instead of trying to cheapen your labor costs.
Americans owed $904B in student loans at the end of Q1, nearly 8% higher Y/Y, with 8.7% of the loans more than 90 days past due, according to the NY Federal Reserve. And with many loans in deferment or grace periods, the actual situation could be even worse. The rise in student loan delinquencies comes as the share of people falling behind on all other types of debt is stabilizing. [View news story]
The funny thing is how for some people everything that goes wrong is always because of some shadowy group grasping for power or money. It is never just a case of simple psychology, herd behavior and/or misguided incentives. Noooo, it's always some Dr. Evil somewhere pulling the strings.
Americans owed $904B in student loans at the end of Q1, nearly 8% higher Y/Y, with 8.7% of the loans more than 90 days past due, according to the NY Federal Reserve. And with many loans in deferment or grace periods, the actual situation could be even worse. The rise in student loan delinquencies comes as the share of people falling behind on all other types of debt is stabilizing. [View news story]
Another person who has turned off his brain a long long time ago
Exactly. No matter what system we use, they all have problems. Just like Goedel's incompleteness theorem proved that any mathematical system will have blind spots. ANY system.
The point always is to minimize the drawbacks and maximize the payoffs. We've already tried the gold standard and found that its drawbacks sucked. Now we're trying another system.
Yes, this new system also has serious issues (who would have thunk it). But are they preferable? To me they are. To Avery they are not. Avery probably would have also advocated to go back to the candle standard after the first electrical fire and the horse standard after the first deadly car accident.
It is pointless to keep searching for the elusive perfect system; it does not exist.
Lazy thinkers like to point out a potential drawback of the current system and then pitch another system that may not have that particular drawback, but instead various other problems which unfortunately go unmentioned. Anybody who believes that a return to the gold standard or a "free precious metals" standard would not only fix current problems, but prevent future crises, and at the same not impair the flexibility of the current system or the dynamics of our economy, is delusional.
We have had so many panics because of the inflexibility of the gold standard that it was eventually and rightfully abandoned; one just has to think of the panics of 1893 and 1907 for example. The current crisis in the euro zone is not at least getting worse and worse because the ECB is not willing to risk inflation and print (unlike the Fed), exhibiting a similar inflexibility as the gold standard would impose on any economy tied to it.
What makes gold so special anyway? You may as well artificially constrain central banks' ability to create money or tie growth in the money supply to a gold mining index, and voila, there is your gold standard in disguise. Is that the big idea? You have got to be kidding me.
So if an economy suffers from a catastrophy like the earthquake in Japan last year, you think it's a good idea to wait until you mine more gold before banks can expand credit?
The thinking that an arbitrarily chosen shiny metal should be the base of it all is incomprehensible to me. Why not a diamond standard? Or a platinum standard?
However, I can understand that a lot of people romanticize things that were. Back then life was just better, right?
Oh, another gold standard dreamer. Some people just really don't want to learn. How many blowups did we have under the gold standard? Oh yes, but of course - those had NOTHING to do with the drawbacks of the gold standard, right?
Market recap: Stock losses wiped out the previous session's gains on growing worries over rising bond yields in Spain and Italy and continued fears over Greece. The euro dipped below $1.24, pushing the dollar higher and pressuring oil prices below $88; copper also fell to YTD lows. Yields on 10-year Treasurys hit a record low 1.62%. NYSE decliners topped advancers nearly four to one. [View news story]
Yes, absolutely. With Spanish and Italian stocks trading close to 20 year lows we are just at the very beginning.
As part of its restructuring efforts, Research In Motion (RIMM) is planning across-the-board layoffs that will cover at least 2,000 employees, sources tell The Globe and Mail. It's added RIM, which has about 16,500 employees (down from a peak of ~20K), plans to announce the news around June 1, and has been quietly conducting layoffs in advance. A source tells Reuters the job cuts could eventually total 6,000. (also) [View news story]
The pro-bailout New Democracy (23.2%) party has overtaken Syriza (22%) in a new opinion poll in Greece. Election rules give the victorious party a 50-seat bonus in Parliament, so even a tiny victory margin is significant in determining who forms the next government. Markets are pricing in disaster. What if things continue to muddle along? [View news story]
Is the “cult of the equity” dead? Institutional investors have slashed their equity holdings over the past decade. Stocks have not been this far out of favor in over a half a century. “Ultimately what is going on is that fundamental tenets of capitalist society are being questioned,” says Allianz's Andreas Utermann. This is stunning in light of overwhelming evidence that, in the long run, equities outperform. From 1900 to 2010, they beat inflation by 6.3% a year in the U.S., compared with only 1.8% for bonds. [View news story]
The Facebook example was obviously misplaced in that article, but it was correct in pointing out that on average stocks are out of favor.
Friday's gloomy reports show the world economic outlook to be in dire straits. As U.S. employment growth slows sharply, Chinese factory output barely growing and European manufacturing falling deeper into malaise, the calls are going to grow for another round of stimulus from the Fed. Whether or not it wants to step in to catch that falling knife, however, is anyone's guess. [View news story]
Friday's gloomy reports show the world economic outlook to be in dire straits. As U.S. employment growth slows sharply, Chinese factory output barely growing and European manufacturing falling deeper into malaise, the calls are going to grow for another round of stimulus from the Fed. Whether or not it wants to step in to catch that falling knife, however, is anyone's guess. [View news story]
Market recap: Stocks suffered their worst day of the year after woeful U.S. jobs data make it clear the economy "isn't just slowing down, it's pulling up the emergency brake." The Dow is now negative YTD, and the S&P breached its 200-day MA. Treasurys and gold were the day's go-to holdings; 10-year yields slipped below 1.5%. Crude oil plunged to $83.23. NYSE losers led winners five to one. [View news story]
Market recap: Stocks suffered their worst day of the year after woeful U.S. jobs data make it clear the economy "isn't just slowing down, it's pulling up the emergency brake." The Dow is now negative YTD, and the S&P breached its 200-day MA. Treasurys and gold were the day's go-to holdings; 10-year yields slipped below 1.5%. Crude oil plunged to $83.23. NYSE losers led winners five to one. [View news story]
Americans owed $904B in student loans at the end of Q1, nearly 8% higher Y/Y, with 8.7% of the loans more than 90 days past due, according to the NY Federal Reserve. And with many loans in deferment or grace periods, the actual situation could be even worse. The rise in student loan delinquencies comes as the share of people falling behind on all other types of debt is stabilizing. [View news story]
Americans owed $904B in student loans at the end of Q1, nearly 8% higher Y/Y, with 8.7% of the loans more than 90 days past due, according to the NY Federal Reserve. And with many loans in deferment or grace periods, the actual situation could be even worse. The rise in student loan delinquencies comes as the share of people falling behind on all other types of debt is stabilizing. [View news story]
Americans owed $904B in student loans at the end of Q1, nearly 8% higher Y/Y, with 8.7% of the loans more than 90 days past due, according to the NY Federal Reserve. And with many loans in deferment or grace periods, the actual situation could be even worse. The rise in student loan delinquencies comes as the share of people falling behind on all other types of debt is stabilizing. [View news story]
Will Spain Leave The Eurozone? [View article]
The point always is to minimize the drawbacks and maximize the payoffs. We've already tried the gold standard and found that its drawbacks sucked. Now we're trying another system.
Yes, this new system also has serious issues (who would have thunk it). But are they preferable? To me they are. To Avery they are not. Avery probably would have also advocated to go back to the candle standard after the first electrical fire and the horse standard after the first deadly car accident.
It is pointless to keep searching for the elusive perfect system; it does not exist.
Will Spain Leave The Eurozone? [View article]
We have had so many panics because of the inflexibility of the gold standard that it was eventually and rightfully abandoned; one just has to think of the panics of 1893 and 1907 for example. The current crisis in the euro zone is not at least getting worse and worse because the ECB is not willing to risk inflation and print (unlike the Fed), exhibiting a similar inflexibility as the gold standard would impose on any economy tied to it.
What makes gold so special anyway? You may as well artificially constrain central banks' ability to create money or tie growth in the money supply to a gold mining index, and voila, there is your gold standard in disguise. Is that the big idea? You have got to be kidding me.
Will Spain Leave The Eurozone? [View article]
The thinking that an arbitrarily chosen shiny metal should be the base of it all is incomprehensible to me. Why not a diamond standard? Or a platinum standard?
However, I can understand that a lot of people romanticize things that were. Back then life was just better, right?
Will Spain Leave The Eurozone? [View article]
Market recap: Stock losses wiped out the previous session's gains on growing worries over rising bond yields in Spain and Italy and continued fears over Greece. The euro dipped below $1.24, pushing the dollar higher and pressuring oil prices below $88; copper also fell to YTD lows. Yields on 10-year Treasurys hit a record low 1.62%. NYSE decliners topped advancers nearly four to one. [View news story]
As part of its restructuring efforts, Research In Motion (RIMM) is planning across-the-board layoffs that will cover at least 2,000 employees, sources tell The Globe and Mail. It's added RIM, which has about 16,500 employees (down from a peak of ~20K), plans to announce the news around June 1, and has been quietly conducting layoffs in advance. A source tells Reuters the job cuts could eventually total 6,000. (also) [View news story]
The pro-bailout New Democracy (23.2%) party has overtaken Syriza (22%) in a new opinion poll in Greece. Election rules give the victorious party a 50-seat bonus in Parliament, so even a tiny victory margin is significant in determining who forms the next government. Markets are pricing in disaster. What if things continue to muddle along? [View news story]
Is the “cult of the equity” dead? Institutional investors have slashed their equity holdings over the past decade. Stocks have not been this far out of favor in over a half a century. “Ultimately what is going on is that fundamental tenets of capitalist society are being questioned,” says Allianz's Andreas Utermann. This is stunning in light of overwhelming evidence that, in the long run, equities outperform. From 1900 to 2010, they beat inflation by 6.3% a year in the U.S., compared with only 1.8% for bonds. [View news story]