klarsolo

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

Proximo, can you lay out BAC's lethal credit exposure for us so that we understand that nationalization is a given?

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

What do you call almost 11 years and flat returns (S&P is on 1998 levels)? Or returns over the last 13 months: -3 %. Is that the biggest rally ever? Look at other timeframes than just the last 6 months only. Some party...not.


On Oct 30 04:48 PM Carl Spackler wrote:

> If the bearishness was chart topping, what do you call 6 months and
> 60% - oversold? Everyone has a reason why the party has to continue,
> but we all know that eventually all parties end. Sometimes they end
> because everyone is tired of the party and no one wants to be the
> last one there. Everyone bought into yesterday and just assumed that
> the market would rocket up (just like it has previously). When it
> did not follow through today, everyone ran for the exits.
>
> Big question is, if you have a lot of people with profits in various
> positions, do they decide to take their profits and sell now, or
> do they get greedy and hope for more. Value and fundamentals will
> not enter into their decision very much - fear and greed will.

How the World Almost Came to an End on September 18, 2008

Am I the only person who wonders about the estimate of $ 5.5 trillion? Did they just extrapolate the first 1-2 hours to the full day? How did they calculate that figure?

How GE Compares to Other Banks

Is it not fascinating how unqualified journalists such as Felix Salmon try to actively contribute to the panic already in the market? Maybe you should restrict Seekingalpha to contributions from people that actually manage money instead of writing about it.

An Interview with the Dean of Contrarian Investing

For anybody interested in how fantastic a manager David Dreman is, look no further than to DCS and DHG, two closed-end funds managed by him and his staff. DCS lost about 90 % of its NAV last year and DHG probably around 65 %. Good job guys.

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

I agree. Strangely people either think stocks will go the moon or they will crash and burn. Nothing in between. Nobody ever seems to believe that we may just go sideways in a volatile trading range for months or even years.

Every time markets go down bears scream in anticipation of major selloff. And everytime markets go up bulls come out and scream "in your face!" back at the bears.

You'd think that after a while both parties learn that stocks do whatever they want and you better be prepared for *everything*. But no, not ever gonna happen.


On Oct 30 09:40 PM cstauffer wrote:

> I am frankly very glad that the sentiment on these boards and many
> others is so negative. This snap back bull market that we have had
> since March will not end with so many people scared or willing to
> be scared whenever the market goes through a profit taking period
> such as we are experiencing recently. I am really not sure what
> it is that people want at this point in the recovery coming off such
> a significant downturn. I certainly do not expect robust top line
> growth and I certainly would expect a significant portion of positive
> economic activity to have been "stimulated" by the stimulus.

Bank Nationalization: It's Just Plain Wrong

Fantastic article. Any kind of approach requires coming up with a fair value of the "toxic" assets. The proponents of nationalization simply declare the current market price as the fair price, trying to sidestep the entire issue of valuing those assets.

But even if that was the case and they are right, the bank can still be a viable entity provided that those losses actually only materialize slowly over time. Why exactly do you want to force those banks do realize potential losses TODAY that would normally be realized over the entire life of a loan? Especially when there is considerable uncertainty over the true amount of losses? Just so that some vulture investors can make out like bandits?

If you seize institutions that would otherwise be viable over time based on arbitrary and very debatable assumptions, you are no better than Chavez or any banana republic for that matter. I have no qualm with nationalization of banks that are on the verge of collapse due to bank runs or severe funding issues. But all other banks should be left alone.

Thinking the Impossible: Could Bank of America Go to Zero?

Thinking the impossible: can people stop panicking and start thinking again?

44% of those surveyed in a new Bloomberg quarterly poll say Europe poses the greatest risk for investors, followed by the States at 20%. Meanwhile, 70% are optimistic about China's prospects, explained by one trader thus: "The Chinese economy is run by the government, managed by the government, helped by the government - it's easy to be bullish."

"The Chinese economy is run by the government, managed by the government, helped by the government - it's easy to be bullish."

In that sentence replace "Chinese" with "US" and "bullish" with "bearish". Now the question is: how can anybody say it is easy to be bullish on their government?! Is it because their Ministry of Truth guarantees that all problems are solved and all targets are hit?

The Detour Around Banking Disaster: How We Lost the Roadmap

I know that people love thinking that huge disasters could have easily been preventable, if only certain factors would have been taken into account or certain people would have been listened to, etc. Especially after the horse left the barn it is often easy to identify what went wrong.

Tons of people said three years ago that the housing bubble was to end badly, just like the stock bubble. But who of them would have in their wildest dreams forecast that the housing problems in four US states would drag the entire global economy down? Not even Shiller.

'Blue-Dogging' Health Care

Maybe you could elaborate a little more on why the article is nonsense in your opinion without resorting to very general adjectives such as "naive" and "dishonest". Without stating any reasons your message is on the same intellectual level as a fight between pre schoolers: "You suck" - "No, you suck", etc.

On Jul 29 05:53 PM Donald Johnson wrote:

> Who at Zacks wrote this nonsense? It looks like a term paper from
> a high school junior. It's naive, dishonest and makes Zacks look
> like a tool of the DNC.
>
> I'm wondering whether Zacks knows this has been published under it's
> byline? And I'm wondering whether SA knows who wrote it. That its
> featured on SA's front page is amazing.

'Blue-Dogging' Health Care

It's getting tiring to hear the same old criticism that every government run entity is awful on every level. Yeah, I know, just look at the DMV. Yes, and? Plenty of private businesses suck just as much.

If this is the whole extent of your argumentation against the public option, why don't we take this a few steps further and advocate the privatization of the fire department, and police, and the military as well. And then, one day, maybe we can privatize government altogether.

Imagine the efficiencies!

When Long-Term Investors Panic

Very good article, I agree on all counts. People's emotions always get in the way and sabotage their investment success. The notion that as stocks get cheaper, they get less risky on average seems to be completely foreign to most people.

Respected analyst John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital calls a target of 1,000 on the Dow, which is pretty astonishing for even the hairest of bears. Browne recently published Socialism Coming Back To Haunt U.S., which may help to explain his pessimism.

If we get a DOW at 1,000 it will not be for any problems that currently make newspaper headlines. It'd be for something that can't possibly be known at this point in time.

Simply extrapolating information that is on TV every night all over the world is not going to cut it.

Get ready for a "surprising rebound" in H2, Larry Kantor, head of research at Barclays Capital says. "Most of our clients have missed this rally."

I talked to Larry personally in November 2007. He was very bullish on stocks, citing that in market history when the Fed started cutting, stocks delivered good returns. Oh well.

It's also a pretty sad statement when you say that most of your clients missed the rally. I guess you either didn't tell them that this was about to happen, or they just didn't believe you anymore.