Poor Jim

Post-Crisis: Texas Housing Laws Could Help All Banks

One more conservative Texas feature: A bank, by law, cannot loan a homeowner (and I mean a person who has paid for the house in full) more than 50% of its current appraised value.

CNN Misses the Point About Tea Parties

Mr.Winkler, you lost all your credibility in the first seven words of your comments, "i.e., "CNN and other left wing media organizations" -- a phrase which tends to indicate that you worry that there may be be a Commiie hiding under your bed, and that maybe Hitler wasn't such a bad guy after all.

Winkling out the truth from today's overwhelming daily supply of information is difficult at best. Being absolutely sure that you know all the answers even before you know what the question is makes finding the truth damn near impossible.

poor jim

Financial Times Debunks Citi's Memo

If Tyler wants grownups to lend attention to what he has to say, he should learn to express his thoughts in English. His writing is execrable, a word which should send Tyler to a dictionary.

Judging from his picture (and why shouldn't we, since he chose to post it?), and his writing, he has little of value to tell any investor.

As the saying goes, would you buy a used car from this man?

Cramer's Mad Money - 25 Rules for Investing (12/30/08)

Re: Cramer on calls

Recently I sold covered calls (i.e., on shares I already own) on three of my stocks.

A typical one was Oracle, which I bought 1000 shares of a couple of years ago when it was at 14, and is currently in the 16 range. I sold a call for $30 for January 2010 for a surprising amount of money -- $550.

Here's why I think it made sense: Since I bought ORCL, it has gone up to about $23 several times, but never higher, hovering between $20 and $23 until the stuff hit the fan this year (still 2008 as I write this).

Cramer's argument vs.calls is that you "limit your upside." Frankly, if Oracle hits 30 before the end of January 2010, I will be hysterically happy to have
more than doubled my money. And the call will have forced me to take a profit, which I probably wouldn't have the sense to do but would instead be hoping for even MORE.

And if my view of Oracle at $30 is that it's still a buy, I'll buy it on a dip.

Since Oracle, as far as I know, has never been as high as $30 -- certainly not in recent years -- I figure that my $550 is sheer profit. Not a ton of money, but these days ANY profit looks mighty good.

Actually, given the current state of share prices in general, if I had any cojones
I'd probably sell naked calls on Oracle for January 2010 at $30. But I'm too battered to be that gutsy.

Ben Stein Watch: December 28, 2008

As I read the article, I kept wondering, "What's the point?" When I had finished,
and finished reading the comments, I wondered, "Does this guy Salmon get PAID for writing pointless drivel like this? And if so, who is stupid enough to pay him?"

Whether one agrees or disagrees with either Salmon or Stein, or both, or neither, Salmon can't come close to Stein as an interesting and literate writer on economics and money.

In addition, and pleasingly, the literacy level of the comments was in general a lot higher than that of the usual comments on Seeking Alpha posts.

And right or wrong,

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

"All 51 economists surveyed by the Philly Fed say we're in or on the brink of a recession that most say started in April, and will last for 14 months."

BRINK of a recession? Those economists must all be very young. We is in a recession and well into the Second Great Depression. It is a classic contraction which will affect everyone.

If government is smart (or is that an oxymoron?) we might see the same sort of infrastructure rebuilding we saw in the 1930s via WPA and PWA, etc. Roads, bridges, etc. are plumb wore out and need rebuilding. If we can get today's somewhat spoiled children to do a real day's physical labor for $20 a day,
a lot of needed work could get done.

The Bottom's Within Sight - Barron's

If we entered, according to Baron's, a "recession" on July 1 (a date about 6 months too late, in my opinion), it has proved to be the shortest recession in history. We are now well into the Second Great Depression.

Credit and trust are the biggest problems. Ask any small- or medium-sized business which uses a line of credit for its working capital -- and that includes most small- or medium-sized businesses. Many have had their lines of credit cut way back or completely canceled -- and those who do get such loans now pay 10% instead of 5-6%.

Employees of these businesses are now working part-time instead of full-time (if they're lucky), or have been laid off (if they're unlucky); and some of those who are still working haven't been paid for several weeks.

Anecdote: a friend of mine has been planning to do some additions and upgrades to her house. She finally got everything set, told the contractor she was ready to roll, and then went to her longtime bank, where she had kept them informed of her plans, to finalize the home equity loan she had arranged. "Sorry," the banker said, "we can't lend you any money." I don't know whether the bank didn't have the money to lend, or management was being very restrictive, or even if, as a branch, they had been told not to lend any money without HQ approval (1,000 miles away); but it doesn't matter.

That meant that the contractor didn't get any money to pay workers or subcontractors; the subcontractors didn't get any money to pay themselves or their workers; Lowe's or Home Depot or the local lumberyard lost several thousand dollars in sales, and so on. And all those people will stop spending money on nonessentials and buy cheaper versions of what they have to buy.
And so forth in a downward spiral.

I saw a piece in a newspaper yesterday (NY Times or WS Journal) headlined something like, "Is Now the Time to Buy Stocks?" , and all I could say was,
"May it is -- but what am going to use for money?"

Dig in, kiddies. This is no 10-month recession. This is sauve que put.

Poor Jim

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Two thangs, as we say in Texas..

1.Hey, fellow journalists, you're late! We're not getting into a recession In the United States; we've been in one for close to a year now. And thanks to those brave representatives who voted against the first "bailout bill" we have already started the Second Great Depression.

2. Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis lost a lot of crediibility yesterday when he cut the BAC dividend 50%. Only a month or so ago, while he was speaking to and taking questions from a group of senior citizens in California, he said that he could see no reason now or in the future for a dividend cut. Now, it looks like he was fuld of sh-t.

It Did Happen! - Cramer's Mad Money (9/29/08)

It should seem obvious that Jim Cramer's shhtick is aimed at college kids, rather than adults. He packs 'em in at his college tour stops. Little kids love him, with all the shouting and sounds effects.

But why would any grown-up pay attention to what he thinks about a particular stock? Much of his advice -- about diversification, etc., is quite sound, and his knowledge and total recall of thousands of stocks is absolutely amazing.

But his judgment is often flawed, his emotional age is that of a child (I can't recall exactly which age has temper tantrums), and his presentation is, by design and perhaps also by nature, that of an insecure teenager doing whatever it takes to get attention -- Rule No. One. being, "When in doubt, SHOUT!"

Questions:

As far as character goes, did you notice how he kept saying. "I let you down," but then transferring all the blame to Steel by adding, "I let you down because I believed Steel."

Questions:

* Is that what you call a stand-up guy?

* I wonder how he behaves in a restaurant when he doesn't like the service or the food?

* Would you invite this man to your house for dinner?

Poor Jim (Getting poorer and wiser day by day)

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Dick Fuld has been a day late and a dollar short right along, at least since June when Lehman was "discussing" selling off assets and the news got out, which caused Fuld to take his eye off the ball and start trying to find out, screaming, "Who leaked??!!"

He has constantly been playing catch-up, waiting too long to make the moves he could have made sooner, and by trying to save everything saving nothing....

except for his own net worth, which will obviously take a hit, but nothing like those his shareholders are taking.

The least Paulson could do is take away Fuld's passport.

Anybody got any other ideas?

Faith Doesn't Cut It - Cramer's Mad Money (8/29/08)

Strangely, none of the comments refer to Cramer's presentation -- the noisy, irrelevant sound effects, the objectionable shouting, screaming, ranting and raving which seems directed at attracting college-age viewers, the equally irrelevant "Boo-Yahs!"

Personally, I've found that much of what he says is sensible, but his way of saying it is frat-party juvenile, and I assume that's the audience he is aiming at.

I've noticed, in my on-and-off viewing, that occasionally a caller will tell Cramer that "my kids love you!" which isn't surprising because kids love clowns.

He's a bit much for grown-ups. I'd probably watch him every day if he'd just sit at a table and talk sense, because he's not only pretty smart, but unlike almost everyone you can speak with about stocks, he doesn't have an axe to grind on the subject.

Jamba Juice: If You Build It, Will They Come?

Start by reading their annual report -- the usual two-bit-corporation 10-K wraparound. The letter from the chairman, Paul Clayton, is as fatuous a Chairman's letter as you will ever read. It starts out:

"Fruit is good. It fuels our body and mind with necessary vitamins and nutrients, and it tastes great!"

Further quotes: "Even though we've grown and are now a public company, Jamba's purpose and core concept have not changed one bit from the early Juice Club days. We aspire to simplify healthy living for each and every customer, built on a foundation of great tasting , fresh fruit with a kiss of California. We know that this is a journey more than a destination, but everything we do will be grounded in our beliefs as we proceed on the journey. We believe in the goodness of real, whole fruit. We believe in all-natural products. And we believe in living a balanced life, centered on good nutrition, being active, and having fun!"

Two pages of that flapdoodle!

This is a company that has no apparent focus, with stores that deliver no "experience" (vis-a-vis,say, Starbucks), stores with no visual appeal inside or out, whose employees apparently just sit or stand around waiting for customers to walk in.

There's one not far from me, in an upscale sort of goodsized strip mall, with a mix of upper-middle and up retailers, and with a similar one across the street. If I were running that store, I'd be delivering "Fresh-Fruit Breakfasts" to the many hundreds of employees who work in those retail stores -- and "Re-Fruit and Re-Fresh" mid-afternoon pick-me-ups, too.

The management and Board appear to include several former upper and middle managers of various franchise chains such as Burger King, P.F Chang's China Bistro, Brinker International (Chili's, etc.) and the like. Two or three directors look like you'd like to have them on the board of company you owned, but overall it looks like a pretty chummy group. Maybe tired and re-tired; bet they play a lot of golf.

Some 2007 numbers:
Net profit (loss)............. ($113,296) NEGATIVE
Net cash flow................($... NEGATIVE
Top five execs' pay........ $4,030,000
Audit fees.....................
Directors' compensation....$1,403...

Expansion (opening new stores) is a HUGE part of Jamba's
operating expenses. Given the present economy, if I were running this company I'd cut way back, maybe entirely, on new stores, until I had a much sharper idea of how to make money (1) selling their all-fruit smoothies, and (2) looking for ways to get more sales from their present stores.

On the positive side (surprise!), they have a very good product-- so good that the best food company in the world, Nestle, is starting to sell that product as a packaged food in supermarkets.

But unless Jamba turns around its retail stores operation, Nestle,
won't have to pay more than $5 or so to take it over, which will leave a lot of shareholders still under water.

Which is why I sign myself,

Poor Jim