starvin sargent

Tactical Asset Allocation Based on the Yield Curve

Hey Mebane, I have read you for several years, thanks for this. Instead of 30 year would you recommend STRIPS instead? It would seem a better vehicle in this environment. I have been buying EDV on dips, for long term charting use WHOSX. You would be surprised how well gold and STRIPS work 50/50 through the years, great correlation with that mix. Rebalancing at a 15% move in either and it looks really good. But I do see the value of just buying the best performing asset. Still I would be interested in a mix of the best and worst performing in a long term portfolio, especially if you average into the worst buying low through the cycle, i.e. a contrarian value style. It seems that the long bond and gold often are at the extremes making them a good pair if you can stand the ride. Just offering ideas here guys...unless of course hyperinflation comes our way who then could stand long bonds! SS

Closed-End Funds: Hugging the Flat line

Hey Joe, What is behind the 4th quarter lagging performance and the late Dec bounce that has happened in recent years in CEF's? The only explanation I can find is fund managers i.e. smart money EOY selling / buying. It is almost a dance to shake down the prices and re buy or something odd. Please also consider a special article on buy write CEF's IRR and GGN seem like good performers, especially the volatility of IRR verses the underlying stocks volatility

The 10 Best U.S. Dividend Stocks

Great research, practical and simple. Have you found and ETF or a CEF that has these picks as the highest percentage of their holdings? Have you done any correlation research on these? Also if you were to combine them into a portfolio (I have seen your selection on your site) which of them would you combine with these picks. Thanks for your hard work
Starving sergeant

Three Dividend Stocks with a Perfect Risk Score

Great research, practical and simple. Have you found and ETF or a CEF that has these picks as the highest percentage of their holdings? Also have you done any correlation research on these? Also if you were to combine them into a portfolio (I have seen your selection on your site) which of them would you combine with these picks. Thanks for your hard work

Starving Sergeant

13 Fixed Income ETFs On the Move Upwards

Thanks for your through response. Please keep up the good work.


On May 23 10:45 PM Richard Shaw wrote:

> Closed-end funds are often leveraged and tend to have high expense
> ratios relative to mutual funds or ETFs. Expense ratios are always
> important, but are even more important for bond funds than for equities
> due to the generally lower returns on bond funds. CEFs also may have
> less liquidity or higher bid/ask spreads than ETFs. On balance, don't
> use CEFs if you have a close alternative in the form of a mutual
> fund or ETF. If there is no alternative and you really want what
> a CEF has, then consider owning the CEF.
>
> The only bonds that are expected to perform well during inflation
> are TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) -- but they will
> only go up as much as the CPI (which is arbitrarily measured by the
> same government that must pay the bills, so watch out on that). Since
> inflation normally associated with higher interest rates, it is hard
> to want to own any bonds in an inflationary environment. The shorter
> the maturity, the quicker you could reinvest at higher rates -- remember
> shorter maturities cut both ways (can't lock in rates long term if
> you expect rates to fall). Mortgage funds can behave in different
> ways based on fixed or variable rates and the rate of refinancing
> (no suggestions there, just a note that they take special care when
> being considered). Ideally, I would think you'd want inflation protected
> bonds or very short bonds while rates are rising, then lock in rates
> with longer-term bonds if you are able to assess that rates are near
> a peak -- how hard that may be is unknowable at this time, as we
> are in unchartered territory.

13 Fixed Income ETFs On the Move Upwards

Richard, Thanks for the new work providing analysis of trends. In times of emotion good systems can really help. I have not seen you comment on CEF. What is your thinking about using them for the fixed income portion of a portfolio? What grade bonds would you be wanting to find in an inflationary environment? Thanks Richard

Global Markets in Review: Risky Assets Surge

Prieur thanks for your thoughtful colorful posts. You come accross as a real guy not robotic at all, thanks for the extra efforts you go to put the data and your thoughts together. What are your thoughts of corporate bonds or other income producing vehicles? Loved the quote frome the Economist, pigs get slaughtered!

Are ETFs and CEFs Good for Dividend Investing?

Hey Joe, Why BLV? Have you considered other CEF bond funds? Are their any that meet your criteria? For me something like FOF where there are so many funds bundled together to spread risk or HTR that uses leverage on a bond portfolio seem to have more potential. Also TYG that captures the divys from energy is good for that steady inflation protected return. Although with all CEF's deleveraging HF's will drive the share price very badly, just look at ETO or FOF for that! Finally please write up your allocation to these instuments and sell and buy rules, thansk for your work

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David, You have been around awhile. When you see such action based on moving averages and other technical indicators that is evidence of a traders market right? So all we need do during this time is make money trading against the pundits who bring in the dumb money. Technically is it just movements off of the channels over 100 or 200 DMA that sustain those levels for x days that mean we are no longer bearish? UYG was a prime example of this if you take a look. Many thanks for all you do for us.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

It must be a bear market when the talented Dave Fry's technical acumen is stated as "oh dear"

...running low on verbage Dave? VBG!

Friday Outlook: Resumed Stability?

David keep up this great service please! I missed the posts last week. Any thoughts on large caps using PWB? Do you see mid caps as a good choice in the next uptrend? I use MVV, UKW and VOT for those. Many thanks