Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts to transform the kingdom's influence over crude prices into an instrument of foreign policy, it's become increasingly clear that one simply cannot fully comprehend market movements without a thorough understanding of concurrent political outcomes. Drawing on extensive experience in both politics and finance, Heisenberg will help demystify a world in which investors can no longer hope to conceptualize markets as existing in anything that even approximates a vacuum. "I am the one who knocks."
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JCG) is a global investment firm dedicated to delivering better outcomes for clients through a broad range of actively managed investment solutions, including fixed income, equity, alternative and multi-asset class strategies. It does so through a number of distinct investment platforms, including investment teams within Janus Capital Management LLC (Janus), as well as INTECH Investment Management LLC (INTECH) and Perkins Investment Management LLC (Perkins), in addition to a suite of exchange-traded products under the VelocityShares brand as well as global macro fixed income products under the Kapstream brand. Each team brings distinct asset class expertise, perspective, style-specific experience and a disciplined approach to risk. Investment strategies are offered through open-end funds domiciled in both the U.S. and offshore, as well as through separately managed accounts, collective investment trusts and exchange-traded products.
Please note that I do not read comments posted here, nor respond to messages here. I don't have the time. If you want my attention, you must seek it directly at my blog.
David J. Merkel, CFA — From 2003-2007, I was a leading commentator at the excellent investment website RealMoney.com (http://www.RealMoney.com). Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited me to write for the site, and now I write for RealMoney on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, etc. My specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better.
I no longer contribute to RealMoney because my work duties have gotten larger, and I began this blog to develop a distinct voice with a wider distribution.
In 2008, I became the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities (http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/02-08-2008/0004752449&EDATE=). Finacorp went into liquidation in June 2010, after which I decided to open my own asset management shop, Aleph Investments, LLC. I manage stock and bond portfolios for clients.
Until 2007, I was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. I also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm.
Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, I managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, I joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life.
My background as a life actuary has given me a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that I will deal with in this blog. I hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University.
In my spare time, I take care of our eight children with my wonderful wife Ruth. Visit this site: The Aleph Blog (http://alephblog.com/)
Independent economic consultant in world petroleum. Analyst at Shale Intelligence, LLC . Started beating the energy market with friends from my own oil & gas research. Now, I independently work with several hedge funds and UN Pension Fund.... In addition to several of my close friends.
Mr. Constantinou is a graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science. After 34 years of service with the United Nations (1961-1995), he retired as Chief of the Energy Program at UN Headquarters in New York, where he authored numerous reports for the UN Economic & Social Council, the General Assembly and various Energy Committees as well as publications such as the annual World Economic Survey.
Chief Director of Global Energy Operations at Shale Intelligence, LLC a division of Equis Trading Inc. Headquarters in New York City, providing strategic consulting services with particular reference to oil and gas trends and prospects.
Charles organized several international seminars and symposia on world oil and natural gas demand & supply, petroleum refineries, exploration & development policies and relations between oil importing and exporting countries, as well as electric power, coal, new and renewable sources of energy and non-conventional sources, such as oil shales, tar sands and heavy oils.
Since his retirement, he has been active as a consultant to the United Nations for a study on The World Oil Situation & Prospects and the organization of a Natural Gas Seminar in China, the Government of Cyprus on oil & gas exploration and private investors in oil and gas from Cyprus & Long Island, New York.
Founder and Lead Analyst at Lone Wolf Publications Ltd (www.lonewolftrader.com).
I also manage a private investment portfolio full time, and also provide mutual fund analysis and buy recommendations to individual investors managing their own investments.
I trade for myself via ETFs and futures markets, with interests in commodities generally and a special interest in precious metals.
David Robertson, CFA serves as the CEO and lead Portfolio Manager for Arete Asset Management, LLC. Dave has been dedicated to the investment management business for over twenty years having analyzed stocks in a wide variety of size and style categories. Early in his career, he worked intimately with a sophisticated discounted cash flow valuation model developed by Callard, Madden and Associates which shaped his skill set and investment philosophy. Since then, he has worked on large, institutional portfolios as well as those of high net worth individuals. Recent experiences include starting up a mid cap core institutional strategy at Credo Capital Management and managing the Ark mid cap fund at Allied Investment Advisers prior to its acquisition by M&T Bank.
Having worked his way through Grinnell College, the CFA program, and the evening program at Kellogg, Dave is intimately familiar with balancing the need for capital preservation with the desire to exploit market opportunities as they arise. He majored in math with extensive studies in economics and philosophy at Grinnell. At Kellogg, Dave majored in finance, marketing, and international business while completing the CFA program concurrently. Dave has served as president and co-chair of programs for the Baltimore CFA Society and serves on the Investment Subcommittee for United Cerebral Palsy, Central Maryland. He has lived in Baltimore since 2000.
While Dave has always enjoyed the ongoing intellectual challenge of analyzing investment opportunities, investing means much more to him than just that. Having been the beneficiary of the needs blind admission policy at Grinnell College, which was facilitated by a healthy endowment, he is intimately aware of and compelled by the the socially useful purposes of good investing.
Friedrich is the name given to our algorithm for analyzing companies that trade on the global stock markets. In creating Friedrich we concentrated on analyzing each company’s Main Street operations through various established ratios, along with our own unique ratios that we developed over the last 30 years. What we came up with is a final "Main Street" price per share based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which is a framework of accounting standards, rules and procedures defined by the professional accounting industry, which has been adopted by nearly all publicly traded U.S. companies. We feel that our Main Street price result is what each company would need to trade at in order to be attractive to a businessperson on Main Street looking to buy at a bargain.
Since the only constant in the universe is change, the results for each company fluctuate by varying degrees. No company is an island unto itself, but each operates in a world of constant change and at times in areas where Chaos is the norm. By analyzing a company’s Main Street operations over time, Friedrich is able to give the potential investor a decade long analysis (opinion) as well as offering a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) analysis (opinion), as well. Thus our readers will not only get as close to a real time view of operations on Main Street as is possible, but then can measure the consistency of the company’s operations over time to determine if s/he should invest or not.
Through our Friedrich algorithm we can analyze ten years of Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement data for each company all at once and generate one final result in seconds. Friedrich was designed to be ultra-conservative and thus will cut zero slack to any company under analysis and will do so with zero emotion. Companies must be exceptional in order to get an attractive Main Street valuation and the ideal investments according to our backtesting are the ones that have been consistent over time.
By being so ultra conservative Friedrich is designed to identify bargains that Wall Street investors may have overlooked. Companies shares may trade on the stock market but the companies themselves operate on Main Street, so Friedrich is designed to generate a Main Street price per share first and only then does he go to Wall Street and see the price for which Benjamin Graham’s “Mr. Market” is offering the shares.
I am a retired Electrical Engineer since 2012 and a Registered Financial Consultant (RFC) since 2010. I have been investing in equities, in the form of stocks & options, since the early 80’s and more recently in mutual funds, and ETF’s.
My current investments consist of a DGI, 10 stock portfolio +7 ETF portfolio for my supplemental retirement income and a second portfolio of mutual funds, ETF’s, & stocks primarily focused on growth. This is how I keep my income strategy separate from my growth strategy.
My passion is to reach young and old investors alike who are apprehensive about investing their money in the market and show them that investing does not have to be complicated, but you do need to spend a little time at it, but with the proper tools this can be made relatively easy.
Everyone needs to come up with a strategy that works for them, and I do not claim my strategies will work for everyone (or anyone other than myself,) but offer them merely as something to consider.
All money from any of these articles is donated to one of my favorite charities by Seeking Alpha.
Dr Pirrong is Professor of Finance, and Energy Markets Director for the Global Energy Management Institute at the Bauer College of Business of the University of Houston. He was previously Watson Family Professor of Commodity and Financial Risk Management at Oklahoma State University, and a faculty member at the University of Michigan, the University of Chicago, and Washington University. Professor Pirrong's research focuses on the organization of financial exchanges, derivatives clearing, competition between exchanges, commodity markets, derivatives market manipulation, the relation between market fundamentals and commodity price dynamics, and the implications of this relation for the pricing of commodity derivatives. He has published 30 articles in professional publications, is the author of three books, and has consulted widely, primarily on commodity and market manipulation-related issues. He holds a Ph.D. in business economics from the University of Chicago.
I Know First is a financial services firm that utilizes an advanced self-learning algorithm to analyze, model and predict the stock market. Co-Founder Dr. Lipa Roitman, a scientist, with over 20 years of experience created the market prediction system. The algorithm is based on artificial intelligence, machine learning and incorporates elements of artificial neural networks as well as genetic algorithms to model and predict the flow of money between 3,000 markets from 3-days to a year: stocks, ETF's, world indices, gold, currencies, interest rates, and commodities. The algorithm outputs a predicted trend as a number, which in turn, is used by traders to identify when to enter and exit the market. While forecasts can be used for intra-day trading, the predictability tends to become stronger over longer time-horizons such as the 1-month, 3-month and 1-year forecasts. Visit us at iknowfirst.com
Own over 50 dividend paying stocks. Our holdings by sector. Animal Health/Dental: PDCO. Chemical/Agriculture: DOW, DD, FMC and MON. Consumer Defensive: KO, PG, MO, KMB, GIS, MDLZ, CLX, CL, KHC, HSY and SJM. Consumer Cyclical: SBUX, NKE and COH. Healthcare: ABT, ABBV, BMY,BAX, DGX, JNJ, LLY, PFE, MRK and HYH. Tech: ADP, ORCL, IBM, INTC, GLW, HPQ, HPE, NATI and TXN. Industrial: EMR, ITW, JCI, MMM, HON and GE. Telecom: T and VZ. Utility: AEP Miscellaneous: AVY, CDK, FAST, FBHS, SPGI and VSM.
Over 10 years of experience as a sell side analyst covering Big Pharma names. Specialize in contrarian calls with a very good success rate. Now working as buy side analyst with a proprietary fund. A word of advise - Investment decisions are not an absolute science, and hence readers should use their own judgement to take a decision before investing.
Over 30 years of investing in individual stocks. Extensive business experience with small to mid-size companies, including as CEO. Many hundreds of blog posts on financial and economic matters since 2008. Focus on value with catalysts for upside price action. Background as a physician and pharmaceutical inventor and entrepreneur, however focus now is global and involves almost all economic categories.
Asif Suria is an entrepreneur and investor with a focus on event driven strategies including merger arbitrage and insider trading. He publishes a weekly post that includes the latest mergers and highlights the largest spreads. He also publishes a weekly post that highlights the top 5 insider purchases and sales of the week. Asif is also one of the earliest contributors at Seeking Alpha and has been regularly contributing content since 2005.
Founded in 1990, TrimTabs Investment Research is the leading independent institutional research firm focused on the supply and demand of shares of stock and the money available for investment. Our key premise – which we term Liquidity Theory – is that stock prices are a function of liquidity rather than value. Like the prices of any tradable good, the prices of stocks are driven primarily by supply and demand.
Unlike most quantitative stock-evaluation models, which focus on easily available price, volume, and earnings data, Liquidity Theory insights depend on detailed data on asset flows and how they shift over time. Since data on the supply and demand for stocks is scattered across so many sources, most strategies ignore stock market liquidity altogether.
By maintaining detailed quantitative models that track key areas of market liquidity and changes in the supply and demand for equities and equity-like vehicles, TrimTabs provides our clients with comprehensive real-time analysis of all aspects of equity-market liquidity.
On the supply side, we measure changes in the float of shares by aggregating corporate actions. On the demand side, we track the money moving into and out of the stock market by measuring the flows into and out of mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and hedge funds. To obtain an early edge on future liquidity trends, our Real Time Macro research focuses on real-time measures of consumer income and employment. Follow TrimTabs and Charles Biderman on Twitter, @CharlesBiderman
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Love the trill of the hunt. Finding that little gem which is set to take off. I check daily and will trade partial position to accumulate shares for the longer haul.
I have been trading for a while, the first shares I ever bought were in the B.P. IPO. I have lived and worked all over the world in a number of capacities, including as a teacher and a Corporate Director. I now spend much of my time at Home with my four children ( hence my name), leading a much more settled life.
I believe that core growth and dividend returns are important, but a small manageable portion of your portfolio must always be invested in High risk High return scenarios. Don't bet more than you can afford and whenever possible play with the houses money. Start a position early. Start Small and accumulate.
Convergence Investment Management is a Registered Investment Advisory firm that focuses on unique opportunities within the Closed-End Fund and Exchange Traded Fund marketplaces. We believe that the markets, while very efficient, are not perfectly efficient and that opportunities for superior risk adjusted returns exist for those willing to put in the work to identify short-term price dislocations. Charles “Chad” Gray is Convergence Investment Management’s Portfolio Manager. Prior to launching Convergence, Mr. Gray spent much of professional his career in Silicon Valley developing better data analytics platforms and data management techniques, many of which have been applied to the Convergence approach. Mr. Gray earned both an M.B.A. and M.S. in Electrical Engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a B.S. in Engineering from Northwestern University. He has also earned the CFA designation and is an active member with the CFA Society of San Francisco.
CEO of StockDotGenie.Com, a Technical Analysis (TA) charting platform targeted at new and novice traders who want to incorporate TA into their trading skills, but without taking years to learn and master the finer points.
YouTube Video on StockDotGenie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK1_x3Czuso
The educational website that supports the trading site is a practical and fundamental base for new traders to obtain an appreciation of both TA and the importance of correctly managing risk. My major at Missouri Western State Univ. was Computer Science. Beginning in 1989 I was the research director of a non-profit clinical research foundation then called Search Alliance. Our research focus included vaccines and antivirals. I subsequently started BioLogic, a consulting firm that focused on partnering emerging biotech’s with large Pharmaceuticals. BioLogic was instrumental in obtaining large pharmaceutical deals for the biotech's we represented. I invest in stocks utilizing every shred of information that technical, fundamental, human, social and internet sciences can provide. The more you know about a companies products, services, customers and investors, the greater your chances of being on the right side of a trade. "There are lots of shortcuts to losing money." Email: email@example.com
Stephan Bogner is mining analyst at Rockstone Research, he has independently analyzed capital markets and resource stocks for more than 11 years. He is also CEO at Elementum International AG of Switzerland trading precious metals and storing them in a high-security vaulting facility within the St. Gotthard Mountain Massif in Central Switzerland which is a duty-free zone. Bogner earned his degree in economics in 2004 at the International School of Management in Dortmund, Germany. He spent five years in Dubai brokering and reselling physical commodities and now resides in Zurich, Switzerland.
Diplom-Kaufmann Stephan Bogner began his academic studies in economics at the International School of Management in Dortmund (Germany) and was one of many who was hooked by the thrilling lectures of Professor Bocker on economic and monetary systems. Yet he was (and still is) the only student of the university that wrote a diploma thesis on precious metals as a protection against inflation (“Gold in a macroeconomic context with special consideration of the price formation process”) that was completed in 2002 under the supervision of Professor Bocker. Mr Bogner specialised in Finance & Asset Management, Production & Logistics and International Law & Entrepreneurship. He also studied at the European Business School in London (UK) and the University of Queensland in Brisbane (Australia).
In 2003, he started working closely with Ferdinand Lips, among others to publish and market his latest bestseller (“Gold Wars – The Battle Against Sound Money As Seen From A Swiss Perspective“) in the German-speaking countries. He revised and translated the English version into German (“Die Gold Verschwörung”). In 2004, he went to work at the biggest gold market in the world (Dubai), where he started up two companies that were specialised in re-selling and brokering physical commodities and consulting with publicly-listed mining companies. Moreover, he was co-founder and, until late 2006, partner of the first German silver stockletter and online information platform (Silberinfo.com) besides dealing with coins and bars.
Mr Bogner is an active analyst for several research firms, institutional and private investors and family offices, mainly for the analysis and valuation of capital markets and publicly-listed companies with a focus on geology, exploration, development and production of resource deposits. Since years, he lives in Zurich (Switzerland) and regularly publishes articles in German and English about economic contexts, currencies, commodities and companies active in exploration and mining of natural resources worldwide.
Dr. John Hussman is the president and principal shareholder of Hussman Econometrics Advisors, the investment advisory firm that manages the Hussman Funds ( http://www.hussmanfunds.com). He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University, and a Masters degree in education and social policy and a bachelors degree in economics from Northwestern University. Prior to managing the Hussman Funds, Dr. Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. In the mid-1980's, Dr Hussman worked as an options mathematician for Peters & Company at the Chicago Board of Trade, and in 1988 began publishing the Hussman Econometrics newsletter. Virtually all of Dr. Hussman's liquid assets are invested in the Hussman Funds.
Note: Dr. Hussman is not an active contributor to Seeking Alpha; rather, SA editors excerpt regularly from Dr. Hussman's public commentary.
Editor of The Oil Drum website http://www.theoildrum.com/ where I write under the name "Gail the Actuary". Worked as an an actuary doing insurance consulting and other insurance work for over 30 years, before joining The Oil Drum in 2007. MS in mathematics from University of IL, Chicago; Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society; Member of the American Academy of Actuaries.
Acting Man has been named after the title of the first chapter of Ludwig von Mises' book "Human Action" - the best treatise on economics ever written. The blog's main author is Pater Tenebrarum, an independent analyst who has been involved with financial markets for 34 years and is writing economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy. Acting Man presents articles on the markets and the economy, a mixture of commentary on current events as well as economic theory and history, mainly from an Austrian School of Economics viewpoint. As more authors have joined the site, we have begun to broaden our palette a bit, but our orientation remains the same: pro-free market, anti-state, pro peace.
Kirk Bostrom, as Managing Partner of Strategic Preservation Partners LP, has been a successful Silicon Valley private investor over the past decade. With roots in the markets beginning in his early teens as a runner on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, Kirk has spent nearly 30 years in the investment securities industry. His experience included working in Sales & Trading for First Boston Corporation (institutional taxable fixed income specialist) to Senior Vice President at Citigroup Smith Barney and being named a Managing Director at Piper Jaffray. At both Citigroup Smith Barney and Piper Jaffray, Kirk led a multi-office corporate services team across the spectrum of client coverage capacities, including corporate cash management, restricted stock & option transactions, and high net worth asset management. He was named repeatedly as one of the top-performing investment advisors in the nation as a member of the Chairman's Club at Citigroup (Nation's Top 1%) and Piper Jaffray's "Baker's Dozen" (Nation’s Top 13 Advisors). In the late 1990s, Kirk often appeared on San Francisco's NBC-TV affiliate, KRON-TV, for financial market commentary. He received a Bachelor of Science in Agricultural Industries (Agribusiness & Economics) from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Please note that the article that you are reading here was originally written on my blog and is republished in Seeking Alpha and other forums. Consequently, I neither track nor respond to comments here. I am sorry! ================ Editors' Note: Seeking Alpha monitors Dr. Damodaran blog and posts relevant articles on his behalf.
Bill Gross is a Portfolio Manager responsible for managing the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, and all related portfolios, and leading efforts to build out Janus' global macro fixed income capabilities. He also serves as an integral member of the Janus Capital Group Global Allocation Committee focused on the expansion of Janus' global asset allocation business. He is based in Newport Beach, California. Mr. Gross co-founded PIMCO in 1971 and served as managing director and Chief Investment Officer until joining Janus in 2014. Throughout his career, Mr. Gross has received numerous awards including Morningstar Fixed Income Manager of the Decade for 2000-2009 and Fixed Income Manager of the Year for 1998, 2000 and 2007. He became the first portfolio manager inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society’s Hall of Fame in 1996 and received the Bond Market Association’s Distinguished Service Award in 2000. In 2011, Institutional Investor magazine awarded him the Money Management Lifetime Achievement Award. He is a renowned expert within the bond market and is at the forefront of thought leadership on the subject of fixed income investing. He is also author of the books, Everything You’ve Heard About Investing is Wrong and Bill Gross on Investing.
Mr. Gross holds an undergraduate degree from Duke University and an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles. He has 44 years of financial industry experience.
Retired, late 50's
Hold CFP designation. Passed CFP exam Nov 2000
Author of "IRA: A Quck Reference Guide". Available on Amazon as an e-book.
Author of "Retirement Investing for INCOME ONLY: How to invest for relaible income in Retirement ONLY from Dividends"