John-Galt

Google's Android vs. Apple: History Repeats Itself

Ultimately it will be about software stability. Apple chose a closed platform and tight control of apps so they could be sure renegade apps do not crash their phone. If Android is as Stable as WIndows NT was supposed to be, Google wins. If people have to start rebooting their phones for ANY reason and buying Virus protection software, Apple wins. It comes down to architecture and implementation. I am buying a Droid, after waiting several years for Apple to get it right. But the first time I have to reboot my phone, it gets booted.

Let Warren Buffett Handle Your Portfolio

This seems a bit sloppy to me. Did the comparison take into account the purchase delay in buying something after WB has actually filed a 13F?What about the losers he has bought and dumped ? What about the winners he no longer owns? What about the investments he makes that are just not available to the rest of us? What about the insurance company nature of his capital base? What about the wholely-owned businesses? What about the variances in capital allocation?

Potash Cuts Back Production, Plenty of Profit Remains

It seems to me the biggest risks for POT are that farmers (USA and globally) will not have the credit available for enough fertilizers this year. If the fed govt holds true to form, they will not realize it for at least a year, when the food crisis hits. And we can always hope that Obamanomics kills the stupid corn for fuel program, even though it will impact POT and others hard for a year.

Treasury Secretary Speculation Heats Up

Barney Frank? This is the scariest (and stupidest) idea I have heard this election season, even worse than Palin being President.

Potash and Agrium Targets Slashed - UBS Analyst

A price target for WHEN? Having a price without a date is not a target at all, more of a philosophy.

Chesapeake Bites McLendon

Well, call me the arbitrator. I think WI agreements with a CEO have tremendous potential for abuse, since they are essentially accounting-created transactions. But they do seem to be common in the industry, and a reasonable way for a founder to get part of the lifetime income from a good discovery. AS LONG as they stand up to an honest audit.

Leverage is your friend and your enemy. Clearly Aubrey did not manage his personal margin leverage very well, but I admire that he paid his money and took his chances with the rest of us. 98% of all CEO's take their stock as risk-free options. Not only that, but his conviction was so strong that he did not sell at all until forced to do so. I would give up every investing tool I have and just buy alongside CEO's with that much conviction if I could find 10 of them. Most if the time they will win big. And I bought a little more CHK last week at 18 and 14 (since I could), so thank you Aubrey!!

HIs mis-management of margin does give me some concern about company leverage as well, but CHK seems to have a clear plan for raising cash now, and hopefully he has learned a lesson. We shall see,

Dems or Repubs, natural gas is in our future. Coal, Solar,and Nuclear are all bad choices for transportation in the near future. The Aubrey & Boone team have made their case with good ads, and natgas is the only clean fuel we can use TOMORROW to replace oil. When congress or the market finally figures it out, prices will rebound and likely break their long-term tie to oil. This is a two year hold for me. I may even buy more on a dip below $20.

Four Energy Bargains

" Buy when there is blood in the streets" goes WAY back. An earlier version was "Buy when the peasants are revolting" (?). I think it was first attributed to a Rothschild in the French Revolution, but may go back much further (Buy when the Christians are coming - maybe in the crusades?) Nothing like time tested advice. But you have to have nerves of steel and also staying power to take some more pain.

Just as discolsure, I sold my refineries yesterday down 50% within a few cents of the bottom. A few hours later, we are now up 10% off the low so far.

People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold

Buy when the blood is in the streets. POT seems like a slam dunk, and MON a goood long term play. Potash supplies are slow to come online, and are well known. Unlike Phos and Nit, which can ramp up and down more quickly, potash takes a while to respond. It also has some built-in demand, since it is underused relative to N & P in the fertilizer mix of most countries. Of course any crash in N & P could alter this balance somewhat as they can just add a LOT more N instead of some K. The downside of that choice is groundwater pollution. I am not betting the farm, but I am adding to my POT position, expecting earnings will correct stock prices within 6-9 months. China can quit buying steel, even coal, but if they quit feeding people there will be a revolution.

The Market Hates Mosaic: Phosphates Not Up to Snuff

POT seemed a better bet, but at these prices I may add some MOS now that the pain is in for POT as well.

It's not just the world eating more, but eating better. Regardless of what happens with Chinese and Indian and Russian economic growth (which will affect steel, coal, and copper), it is notable that once a population shifts to higher protein diet it does not change back peacefully. Chinese leaders especially know this, and will let almost anything drop except food production and availability. They are also locked into potash contracts for at least a year, which is part of why potash has firmer pricing duirng this silly period.

Buffett's GE Warrants Quickly Trade Out of the Money

Everyone wants to judge WB based on the last 20 minutes. This is a multi-year, or even permanent investment for him. It would be both reasonable and ethical for him to have his warrants priced at the same price as the secondary offering that was pending (and also recent market lows in both cases). If Jack Welch was running Treasury, GE would be the stronger short-term bet right now. Let's see which deal looks smarter in three years instead of three hours.

To Avoid Failure, Get Really Big; Everybody Else, Watch Out

When you get down to it, this crisis is a failure of the Federal Reserve System. Perhaps that is where we should start? We may end up with a defact gold-based system before it is over.

The Next Smart, Green Grid Tech: WiMax

I suppose this is interesting, but IMHO of limited investment value. Power mgmt is a rounding error in the Wimax world, and there is no clearly superior technology that makes choosing one energy source over another important. How about Wimax in cars so you can find a refueling station for your CNG vehicle?

Brazil May Be Finding a Bottom

dlaw, its all related to reduction in leverage. As capital becomes scarce and scared, everything gets sold.

Brazil's Oil Power Grab Could Hit Petrobras

It is difficult enough to assess the political risks of investing in the USA right now, and I live here. We have already seen two major "confiscations" in the name of stability. BSC and FNM/FRE. What the Bush cronies are doing is no better than Venezuela, Russia, and maybe Brazil. Long term investors need to figure out where to invest when capital becomes at risk by being big and successful. An Obama win means that oil companies are at risk. Make no mistake that an excess profits tax is to no better than confiscation, just wearing different clothing. And a McCain win will screw you too, as the Bush doctrines get embedded in govt until no one is safe. Maybe Brazil is not so bad. But Ayn Rand had it right over 60 years ago.

SPDR GLD ETF Unloads 79 Tons of Gold - Should Investors Follow Suit?

It seems to me that if they are dumping that much gold, prices should have completely collapsed. 10 tons only caused a $10-15 drop on Tuesday. Prices are holding nicely IMHO. SOMEONE is buying all that physical gold, and its not mom & pop.