Pretzel Logic

12 Reasons to Short Gold

I would take issue with reason #1 ("it's a great contrarian play!") -- contrarian for contrarian's sake is never a good reason to trade. Buying stocks on Oct. 6, 2008 was a "great contrarian play" -- how did that work out for folks? Oh, they're still sitting on 30+% losses.

I would also take issue with the idea of a second half recovery. That's just naive. For proof you site Obama and the gov't? The gov't didn't even admit to a RECESSION until it was almost a year old. C'mon, seriously.

Beyond that, I would short gold at your own peril right here. I was bearish on gold a couple months ago, but now that it's broken its downtrend, it's a new ballgame.

Markets Shake Off Unemployment Numbers and Continue Higher

The market didn't ignore the bad news -- the market was happy because the news is SO bad, it means the $800 gazillion dollar stimulus package will pass.

Mind you, I'm not saying I agree with the market, but that's the psychology.

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

Regarding "Higher oil prices will be the death knell for the recent modest rally in global stock markets and the impact of higher energy costs " -- if you overlay a chart of oil and the SPX, you will see that the two have been moving in tandem for several months. Modestly higher oil prices would be bullish for equities, not bearish. I expect oil to rally to $65-85 before crashing to new lows on its next downleg.

Gold lost its luster as a war safe-haven when Russia invaded Georgia (look at a GC chart if you missed it). I doubt most investors have forgotten that lesson this soon. I expect gold to see the $600's before it sees the $1000's again.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

"Technical analysis at these levels is not as helpful as one would like as markets are blowing through support levels quicker than we can identify them."

Lee Adler, who runs Captialstool.com, has a saying: "There's no such thing as support in a bear market."

Update: Crude Oil, Priced in Gold

SWRichmond,

I have to say that your reasoning regarding the oil/dollar market is absolutely brilliant. I had not considered things in this light before, but after reading your thesis, it makes perfect sense to me. Hats off to you.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

This Frankfurt guy is posting all over the boards about how the market is going to crash, DJIA 9000 by December. Maybe he's right, or maybe he's hoping to get enough exposure to cause it (fat chance, buddy). Personally, I don't care if it crashes or rallies, I just want it to do SOMETHING other than this trading range crap.

The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets

marc mchugh asked who User 244350 was.

Clearly User 244350 is the guy who wrote the article (James Conrad, apparently).

Beyond that, it is an interesting theory.

Bron is correct however, in stating that GoldMoney claims they have absolutely no shortage (happened to be at their website earlier today).

More Correlations: Oil and the Dollar (and Gold)

Thanks for the excellent charts. I just had to chuckle about this sentence, though: "gold bugs who believe the Dollar will continue to gain strength might bear this in mind."

That's almost an oxymoron. Most of the goldbugs I know think the dollar is suitable only for toilet paper, and will NEVER get their heads around a fiat currency -- even in the face of overwhelming technical evidence that the trend is reversing, at least for the short/intermediate term. :)