i agree with zenalgo. My assumption is that this is a flat market until 2016/2020. Look at the last 60 years: 1950 to 65, bull market; 1965/80, flat/bear market; 1980/2000 secular bull; we're in the next flat cycle. And that's only beginning from 1950. If you go further back, you get the same picture since 1870 or so (since we record stock prices). So, this thing is going nowhere for another 7 to 10 years. Doesn't mean you can't make money, it just means you can't make money by buying the market and waiting, in other words "there's no beta", you got to go out there and earn your upkeep (or that of your clients). Plenty of bear market rallies to come, enjoy the parties but stay close to the door!
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i agree with zenalgo. My assumption is that this is a flat market until 2016/2020.
Aug 02 06:45 am
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All Comments by taojaxx »Bill Miller on This Tough Market [View article]
Look at the last 60 years: 1950 to 65, bull market; 1965/80, flat/bear market; 1980/2000 secular bull; we're in the next flat cycle. And that's only beginning from 1950. If you go further back, you get the same picture since 1870 or so (since we record stock prices).
So, this thing is going nowhere for another 7 to 10 years. Doesn't mean you can't make money, it just means you can't make money by buying the market and waiting, in other words "there's no beta", you got to go out there and earn your upkeep (or that of your clients). Plenty of bear market rallies to come, enjoy the parties but stay close to the door!