taojaxx's Comments taojaxx's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/199678/comments The Consequences of the U.S. Monetary Base Bubble http://seekingalpha.com/article/172206-the-consequences-of-the-u-s-monetary-base-bubble?source=feed#comment-753238 753238 ;-}

On Nov 09 04:18 PM user396040 wrote:

> There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about inflation at some
> point in the future and higher interest rates as well but I am not
> sure this chart is one of them. As I understand it, the monetary
> base is the amount of reserves the banks hold, including amounts
> which banks have on deposit at the Federal Reserve (e.g. Citibank's
> funds held at the Federal Reserve). Because of the extreme financial
> panic, many banks have been extraordinarily conservative in the deployment
> of cash and have decided to deposit funds at the Federal Reserve
> rather than lend them out. This has led to a big increase in the
> "monetary base" but is not, in itself, deflationary because the funds
> deposited at the Federal Reserve are not really available for anyone
> to spend. If and when conditions improve, the banks will withdraw
> these funds and lend them out or use the deposits as a base for leveraging
> more loans and deposits. I think that the issue of how to play this
> whole thing as an investor is a very interesting one. But what concerns
> me about this blog is that many participants seem to be more interested
> in ranting about public policy than figuring out how to make money
> in this admittedly challenging environment. I sense in some of these
> comments a kind of fencesitter's remorse on the part of investors
> who have missed the rally. As economists often say, bygones are
> bygones; the important question (for at least some of us) is how
> do we make money from here.]]>
Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:22:55 -0500 ;-}

On Nov 09 04:18 PM user396040 wrote:

> There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about inflation at some
> point in the future and higher interest rates as well but I am not
> sure this chart is one of them. As I understand it, the monetary
> base is the amount of reserves the banks hold, including amounts
> which banks have on deposit at the Federal Reserve (e.g. Citibank's
> funds held at the Federal Reserve). Because of the extreme financial
> panic, many banks have been extraordinarily conservative in the deployment
> of cash and have decided to deposit funds at the Federal Reserve
> rather than lend them out. This has led to a big increase in the
> "monetary base" but is not, in itself, deflationary because the funds
> deposited at the Federal Reserve are not really available for anyone
> to spend. If and when conditions improve, the banks will withdraw
> these funds and lend them out or use the deposits as a base for leveraging
> more loans and deposits. I think that the issue of how to play this
> whole thing as an investor is a very interesting one. But what concerns
> me about this blog is that many participants seem to be more interested
> in ranting about public policy than figuring out how to make money
> in this admittedly challenging environment. I sense in some of these
> comments a kind of fencesitter's remorse on the part of investors
> who have missed the rally. As economists often say, bygones are
> bygones; the important question (for at least some of us) is how
> do we make money from here.]]>
In a Q-and-A, Jim Rogers elaborates on which homework Nouriel Roubini didn't do ("all of it ... I have a problem talking about a bubble when assets are this depressed from their all-time highs") and says it's one of the few times he hasn't been short anywhere in the world - there's "a gigantic amount of money being printed and it has to go somewhere." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/36140?source=feed#comment-752988 752988 That money so far sits on central banks' bloated balance sheets as banks don't lend.
When they start lending and the economy picks up, central banks will have all the time they need to hike interest rates to ensure no bubble inflates.
Not saying they will do it, as there will be (there already is) pressure against higher interest rates. But they have all the tools to do it. Those printed trillions are only as dangerous as we allow them to be. No foregone conclusion yet.
What Gold tells us is that China/India move away from the dollar as they realize that the US debtor can harm his creditors more than they can harm him. ]]>
Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:17:45 -0500 That money so far sits on central banks' bloated balance sheets as banks don't lend.
When they start lending and the economy picks up, central banks will have all the time they need to hike interest rates to ensure no bubble inflates.
Not saying they will do it, as there will be (there already is) pressure against higher interest rates. But they have all the tools to do it. Those printed trillions are only as dangerous as we allow them to be. No foregone conclusion yet.
What Gold tells us is that China/India move away from the dollar as they realize that the US debtor can harm his creditors more than they can harm him. ]]>
The Good, Bad and the Ugly: Australian, U.S. and U.K. Economies http://seekingalpha.com/article/172085-the-good-bad-and-the-ugly-australian-u-s-and-u-k-economies?source=feed#comment-752971 752971 I'm not too good at geopolitics. My reaction would be these are not comparable pairs: Canada US were both on an ascending part of their historical cycles. I'm afraid China is on a historical upswing (after millenias of decay) while Australia is on a downswing after a mere 2 to 300 years upswing.
Hope I'm wrong, by the way, I like Aussies a lot. Like I said, not oo good at this. I already have a hard time firing where a stock will be trading a month out, let alone where a country will stand a decade out.


On Nov 08 09:53 PM Teutonic Knight wrote:

> taojaxx - - -
>
> Perhaps another point of interest that came to my mind is the parallel
> between China/Australia and United States/Canada in the realm of
> industrialization. During the last century of 1900-2000, as America
> ramped up its Industrial Revolution, Canada because of its geographical
> proximity, naturally had become the "Backyard of the United States",
> supplying all sorts of natural resources, - be it timber, paper,
> minerals, oil, natural gas, coal, asbestos, hydro electric power,
> and even fresh water, to name a few.
>
> And during the post-WWII decades of 1950-1970, the United States
> virtually soaked up all Canadian industrial enterprises by setting
> up subsidiaries, branch plants, and assembly plants. For many years
> until of late, this arrangement had worked very well as Canadian
> workers would enjoy almost the same benefits and pay as their American
> counterparts, with the "Loonie" hovering around the 90 cents to the
> US Dollar mark, as if to say Canada is at about 10% discount of its
> US equivalent goods and services in every walk of life.
>
> There is a similarity emerging here with Australia to becoming that
> "Backyard of China". The recent appreciation of the $A and their
> central bank raising interest rate are indicative of such a trend.
>
>
> Just a thought!
>
> TK]]>
Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:02:21 -0500 I'm not too good at geopolitics. My reaction would be these are not comparable pairs: Canada US were both on an ascending part of their historical cycles. I'm afraid China is on a historical upswing (after millenias of decay) while Australia is on a downswing after a mere 2 to 300 years upswing.
Hope I'm wrong, by the way, I like Aussies a lot. Like I said, not oo good at this. I already have a hard time firing where a stock will be trading a month out, let alone where a country will stand a decade out.


On Nov 08 09:53 PM Teutonic Knight wrote:

> taojaxx - - -
>
> Perhaps another point of interest that came to my mind is the parallel
> between China/Australia and United States/Canada in the realm of
> industrialization. During the last century of 1900-2000, as America
> ramped up its Industrial Revolution, Canada because of its geographical
> proximity, naturally had become the "Backyard of the United States",
> supplying all sorts of natural resources, - be it timber, paper,
> minerals, oil, natural gas, coal, asbestos, hydro electric power,
> and even fresh water, to name a few.
>
> And during the post-WWII decades of 1950-1970, the United States
> virtually soaked up all Canadian industrial enterprises by setting
> up subsidiaries, branch plants, and assembly plants. For many years
> until of late, this arrangement had worked very well as Canadian
> workers would enjoy almost the same benefits and pay as their American
> counterparts, with the "Loonie" hovering around the 90 cents to the
> US Dollar mark, as if to say Canada is at about 10% discount of its
> US equivalent goods and services in every walk of life.
>
> There is a similarity emerging here with Australia to becoming that
> "Backyard of China". The recent appreciation of the $A and their
> central bank raising interest rate are indicative of such a trend.
>
>
> Just a thought!
>
> TK]]>
For Asia to achieve a robust recovery in a soft-export new world, it will have to tackle two issues, IMF says on its blog: 1) Firms that hoard cash but don't invest. 2) Wealthy households that won't consume. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/36083?source=feed#comment-751745 751745 Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:56:16 -0500 The Good, Bad and the Ugly: Australian, U.S. and U.K. Economies http://seekingalpha.com/article/172085-the-good-bad-and-the-ugly-australian-u-s-and-u-k-economies?source=feed#comment-751736 751736 Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:41:52 -0500 Heads You Win, Tails You Win! http://seekingalpha.com/article/150150-heads-you-win-tails-you-win?source=feed#comment-599422 599422

On Jul 21 10:55 AM Topgun wrote:

> True, and MOS is going to be taken over one way or the other.]]>
Thu, 23 Jul 2009 10:50:44 -0400

On Jul 21 10:55 AM Topgun wrote:

> True, and MOS is going to be taken over one way or the other.]]>
Sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp. agrees to buy a 40% stake in Chinese private-equity firm Citic Capital Holdings. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/28259?source=feed#comment-594656 594656 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 05:53:45 -0400 Vale May Bid for Mosaic: Let the Great Potash War Begin http://seekingalpha.com/article/149468-vale-may-bid-for-mosaic-let-the-great-potash-war-begin?source=feed#comment-593252 593252
Thanks for responding. My point is this argument about population growth is so general, I view it as useless for our purpose: it assumes similar oligopolistic supply structure and no extra discoveries whereas as we speak current pricing triggers development and Brazil for example announced one such discovery.
As to the link with the real estate bubble, POT from $45 to $226 back to $50 (so multiplied by 5 and subsequently divided by 5.5) seems to me to fit the definition of a bubble.
As you said, best of luck in your investment. After 30 years in this investing business, I have found that the major success factor was precisely that: luck. It oftentimes comes alongside hard work ("the harder I work, the luckier I get"), but not always.


On Jul 18 02:19 PM Ryan Barnes wrote:

> To Taojaxx: Yes, I read all the same reports that you have in the
> past 24 hours. Yes, Vale denied interest in MOS, just like every
> acquirer in the past 20 years has done when faced with a potential
> leak.
>
> And yes, inventories are up at Potash Corp, and Agrium has announced
> price cuts in the range of 20%; this is why share prices have been
> cut in half as I mentioned. As to the broader thesis of global demand
> for protein being higher...if you think that's comparable to real
> estate, that's your right...I just don't see any comparison.
>
> The increased demand for real estate was based on the increased access
> to cheap credit, making ever larger patches of the demograpic quilt
> feel that owning a home was their "right". That part of the fundamental
> equation has changed. The increased demand for proteins in a growing
> population has not changed to date, and I don't see anything stopping
> it.
>
> Best of luck to all in your investing efforts.]]>
Sat, 18 Jul 2009 18:09:48 -0400
Thanks for responding. My point is this argument about population growth is so general, I view it as useless for our purpose: it assumes similar oligopolistic supply structure and no extra discoveries whereas as we speak current pricing triggers development and Brazil for example announced one such discovery.
As to the link with the real estate bubble, POT from $45 to $226 back to $50 (so multiplied by 5 and subsequently divided by 5.5) seems to me to fit the definition of a bubble.
As you said, best of luck in your investment. After 30 years in this investing business, I have found that the major success factor was precisely that: luck. It oftentimes comes alongside hard work ("the harder I work, the luckier I get"), but not always.


On Jul 18 02:19 PM Ryan Barnes wrote:

> To Taojaxx: Yes, I read all the same reports that you have in the
> past 24 hours. Yes, Vale denied interest in MOS, just like every
> acquirer in the past 20 years has done when faced with a potential
> leak.
>
> And yes, inventories are up at Potash Corp, and Agrium has announced
> price cuts in the range of 20%; this is why share prices have been
> cut in half as I mentioned. As to the broader thesis of global demand
> for protein being higher...if you think that's comparable to real
> estate, that's your right...I just don't see any comparison.
>
> The increased demand for real estate was based on the increased access
> to cheap credit, making ever larger patches of the demograpic quilt
> feel that owning a home was their "right". That part of the fundamental
> equation has changed. The increased demand for proteins in a growing
> population has not changed to date, and I don't see anything stopping
> it.
>
> Best of luck to all in your investing efforts.]]>
Vale May Bid for Mosaic: Let the Great Potash War Begin http://seekingalpha.com/article/149468-vale-may-bid-for-mosaic-let-the-great-potash-war-begin?source=feed#comment-592925 592925 Similarly, AGU just cut the listed potash price from $770 to $512 per short ton, and POT announced that North American potash inventories were uo 152000 tons in June, bringing them 115% hgher than the average level of the last 5 years.
As to the world needing proteins, this is the pump argument overused last year to justify ridiculous valuations for fert stocks which were subsequently cut in half, in 3 or in 4 from peak to trough.
Reminds me of the "they don't build real estate anymore" we've been satiated with during the bubble heydays.]]>
Sat, 18 Jul 2009 09:36:04 -0400 Similarly, AGU just cut the listed potash price from $770 to $512 per short ton, and POT announced that North American potash inventories were uo 152000 tons in June, bringing them 115% hgher than the average level of the last 5 years.
As to the world needing proteins, this is the pump argument overused last year to justify ridiculous valuations for fert stocks which were subsequently cut in half, in 3 or in 4 from peak to trough.
Reminds me of the "they don't build real estate anymore" we've been satiated with during the bubble heydays.]]>
Ben Stein, Predatory Bait-and-Switch Merchant http://seekingalpha.com/article/149246-ben-stein-predatory-bait-and-switch-merchant?source=feed#comment-592894 592894 Sat, 18 Jul 2009 08:57:57 -0400 T. Boone Pickens' Epic Wind Fail http://seekingalpha.com/article/147955-t-boone-pickens-epic-wind-fail?source=feed#comment-584052 584052

On Jul 11 01:06 PM ebworthen wrote:

> Hi commercials reminded me of Ross Perot.
>
> My take was that he was at the point where old men lose their edge
> and have over optimistic thoughts and plans because they have one
> foot in the grave.
>
> Warren Buffet is there too.
>
> I hope I die before I get to that point, or am sitting in a rocker
> looking wistfully into the distance instead of blowing my money.]]>
Sun, 12 Jul 2009 03:23:54 -0400

On Jul 11 01:06 PM ebworthen wrote:

> Hi commercials reminded me of Ross Perot.
>
> My take was that he was at the point where old men lose their edge
> and have over optimistic thoughts and plans because they have one
> foot in the grave.
>
> Warren Buffet is there too.
>
> I hope I die before I get to that point, or am sitting in a rocker
> looking wistfully into the distance instead of blowing my money.]]>
'The Crash of 2008 and What It Means' by George Soros http://seekingalpha.com/article/148154-the-crash-of-2008-and-what-it-means-by-george-soros?source=feed#comment-583701 583701 If that's your thinking, I wish you lots of luck in academia, as the markets might not be nice to you.
I agree with you though that reflexivity is simply another name for feedback loops.


On Jul 11 11:15 AM manya05 wrote:

> Reflexivity? most people would call it a positive feedback loop,
> and the concept is as old as control theory, which has been around
> for decades. Until you put some meat into it (a quantification that
> can be expressed in equations), it makes for nice cocktail conversation,
> but not much else.]]>
Sat, 11 Jul 2009 14:30:26 -0400 If that's your thinking, I wish you lots of luck in academia, as the markets might not be nice to you.
I agree with you though that reflexivity is simply another name for feedback loops.


On Jul 11 11:15 AM manya05 wrote:

> Reflexivity? most people would call it a positive feedback loop,
> and the concept is as old as control theory, which has been around
> for decades. Until you put some meat into it (a quantification that
> can be expressed in equations), it makes for nice cocktail conversation,
> but not much else.]]>
Book Review: Hedge Funds (An Analytic Perspective) http://seekingalpha.com/article/146974-book-review-hedge-funds-an-analytic-perspective?source=feed#comment-583684 583684 Sat, 11 Jul 2009 13:56:57 -0400 Book Review: The House of Dimon, by Patricia Crisafulli http://seekingalpha.com/article/148179-book-review-the-house-of-dimon-by-patricia-crisafulli?source=feed#comment-583679 583679 What strikes me is that this is the description of somebody whose entire career was devoted to the build up of C and JPM, which are at the root cause of the current crisis, one of he largest failures in financial history, Nevertheless, somebody found time to write a eulogy to the individual and SA devotes a whole article to praise the book...]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 13:51:53 -0400 What strikes me is that this is the description of somebody whose entire career was devoted to the build up of C and JPM, which are at the root cause of the current crisis, one of he largest failures in financial history, Nevertheless, somebody found time to write a eulogy to the individual and SA devotes a whole article to praise the book...]]> Justin Fox on Regulatory Reform and Market Irrationality http://seekingalpha.com/article/145680-justin-fox-on-regulatory-reform-and-market-irrationality?source=feed#comment-574984 574984 Markets do not exist separately from market participants and reflect their rationality/irrationality of the moment. There is no market steady state of any sort: it is an ongoing process where supply/demand most of the time tends to rationally discount all known information and some of the time simply discounts the fad of the moment, hence the bubble with positive feedback trading (the higher it goes, the more I buy).
As to the dotcom being based on equity and real estate on debt hence the difference in impact, that's not true: dotcom was based on debt as well (ever heard of margin accounts?). The dotcom simply hit household as banks didn't own inflated stocks and only marginally financed stock speculators. Real estate hit banks' mortgage portfolios big time and their subprime holdings, crippling the financial sector and cutting off credit to the whole economy. It's like being hurt in the arm or leg (dotcom) and being hurt in the lungs or heart (subprime).]]>
Sun, 05 Jul 2009 21:55:20 -0400 Markets do not exist separately from market participants and reflect their rationality/irrationality of the moment. There is no market steady state of any sort: it is an ongoing process where supply/demand most of the time tends to rationally discount all known information and some of the time simply discounts the fad of the moment, hence the bubble with positive feedback trading (the higher it goes, the more I buy).
As to the dotcom being based on equity and real estate on debt hence the difference in impact, that's not true: dotcom was based on debt as well (ever heard of margin accounts?). The dotcom simply hit household as banks didn't own inflated stocks and only marginally financed stock speculators. Real estate hit banks' mortgage portfolios big time and their subprime holdings, crippling the financial sector and cutting off credit to the whole economy. It's like being hurt in the arm or leg (dotcom) and being hurt in the lungs or heart (subprime).]]>
Fearmongering about the risk of looming hyperinflation is exactly what the Fed wants. "The major danger with a zero lower bound for the interest rate," Swedish policy-wonk Lars Svensson says (.pdf), "is that inflation expectations will be too low and even negative, and that the real interest rate will thus become too high." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/27249?source=feed#comment-573606 573606 Japanese experience revisited, hopefully more successful.]]> Fri, 03 Jul 2009 22:04:02 -0400 Japanese experience revisited, hopefully more successful.]]> Clues to the Next Market Move http://seekingalpha.com/article/146813-clues-to-the-next-market-move?source=feed#comment-572824 572824 As to the natural gas play, the bounce after the EIA inventory statement lasted about 60 mn. NG contract ended the day at $3.65, about $.06 lower than the opening. Unfortunate illustration of the consistent failure of any bullish natural gas strategy. But maybe you use the ETFs rather than the futures contracts, in which case, I'd be interested in learning how you manage the added risk of the relative contangos.
Not disputing your bearish case. I'm just surprised how certain you are, especially as I'm not fazed by the arguments: the fact that home builders and regional lenders were early warnings in the recent past doesn't mean they're going to lead the market this time. They may, or may not. I too am skeptical about the green shoots theory, but for more fundamental reasons: Deleveraging doesn't stop in weeks as this is a structural shift. The US consumer retrenches for good and it's unclear to me who's going to pick up from them, certainly not the Chinese as they have no social security, no retirement benefits and no children to care for them in old age (one child policy) so they don't have a choice but to save like crazy, which is what they will keep doing.]]>
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:20:18 -0400 As to the natural gas play, the bounce after the EIA inventory statement lasted about 60 mn. NG contract ended the day at $3.65, about $.06 lower than the opening. Unfortunate illustration of the consistent failure of any bullish natural gas strategy. But maybe you use the ETFs rather than the futures contracts, in which case, I'd be interested in learning how you manage the added risk of the relative contangos.
Not disputing your bearish case. I'm just surprised how certain you are, especially as I'm not fazed by the arguments: the fact that home builders and regional lenders were early warnings in the recent past doesn't mean they're going to lead the market this time. They may, or may not. I too am skeptical about the green shoots theory, but for more fundamental reasons: Deleveraging doesn't stop in weeks as this is a structural shift. The US consumer retrenches for good and it's unclear to me who's going to pick up from them, certainly not the Chinese as they have no social security, no retirement benefits and no children to care for them in old age (one child policy) so they don't have a choice but to save like crazy, which is what they will keep doing.]]>
Inflation Is Going to Be a Major Problem... But Not Today http://seekingalpha.com/article/146612-inflation-is-going-to-be-a-major-problem-but-not-today?source=feed#comment-572228 572228 So, no rush on commodities for inflationary reasons. You might wish to load up on them though, as most don't make the above distinction. As we know, in trading what's important is not what you think, but what the market thinks. Enjoy the commodity party, but stay close to the door as there will be money changing hands when people realize that Marc Faber's certainties ($ debased, buy commodities and a handgun, head for the hills or for China) might change overnight.]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:56:51 -0400 So, no rush on commodities for inflationary reasons. You might wish to load up on them though, as most don't make the above distinction. As we know, in trading what's important is not what you think, but what the market thinks. Enjoy the commodity party, but stay close to the door as there will be money changing hands when people realize that Marc Faber's certainties ($ debased, buy commodities and a handgun, head for the hills or for China) might change overnight.]]> There's No Jobless Recovery http://seekingalpha.com/article/145447-there-s-no-jobless-recovery?source=feed#comment-562897 562897

On Jun 25 07:22 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Another green shoot bites the dust as weekly jobless figures jumped
> 12,000 back up to 627,000. They started offshoring hedge fund managers
> years ago. And now South Carolina governor Sanford tells us that
> his state has started offshoring mistresses. Where will it all end?
> Is there no shame? Please pray for me, Argentina.]]>
Thu, 25 Jun 2009 20:17:00 -0400

On Jun 25 07:22 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Another green shoot bites the dust as weekly jobless figures jumped
> 12,000 back up to 627,000. They started offshoring hedge fund managers
> years ago. And now South Carolina governor Sanford tells us that
> his state has started offshoring mistresses. Where will it all end?
> Is there no shame? Please pray for me, Argentina.]]>
Bullish on Natural Gas? There's a Smarter Way to Play http://seekingalpha.com/article/142174-bullish-on-natural-gas-there-s-a-smarter-way-to-play?source=feed#comment-539091 539091 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:47:00 -0400 Deflation Risk Disappears from TIPS Charts; Inflation on the Horizon http://seekingalpha.com/article/138886-deflation-risk-disappears-from-tips-charts-inflation-on-the-horizon?source=feed#comment-513977 513977 Fri, 22 May 2009 05:26:00 -0400 Animal Spirits, by Shiller and Akerlof: Questioning Economic Motives http://seekingalpha.com/article/136615-animal-spirits-by-shiller-and-akerlof-questioning-economic-motives?source=feed#comment-497592 497592 When you think of it, Efficient Market Hypothesis has reigned for decades while it posited that investment advice, which is a multi-trillion dollar industry, had zero value. Thousands of traders beat the index year in year out, whereas EMH rules this out.
Markets are rational most of the time as negative feedback trading usually prevails. They're just occasionally prone to instances where positive feedback trading (a.k.a. animal spirits) prevails.]]>
Sun, 10 May 2009 10:41:09 -0400 When you think of it, Efficient Market Hypothesis has reigned for decades while it posited that investment advice, which is a multi-trillion dollar industry, had zero value. Thousands of traders beat the index year in year out, whereas EMH rules this out.
Markets are rational most of the time as negative feedback trading usually prevails. They're just occasionally prone to instances where positive feedback trading (a.k.a. animal spirits) prevails.]]>
We Don't Need No ITT Educational http://seekingalpha.com/article/130786-we-don-t-need-no-itt-educational?source=feed#comment-462402 462402 Believing that people will pay top dollars for second rate education is a recipe to lose money.]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 05:35:23 -0400 Believing that people will pay top dollars for second rate education is a recipe to lose money.]]> TIPS Erase First Deflation Panic http://seekingalpha.com/article/128135-tips-erase-first-deflation-panic?source=feed#comment-443224 443224 I like DBO much better than USO: the latter is getting killed by the contango each time it rolls its position at contract maturity.]]> Sat, 28 Mar 2009 04:18:40 -0400 I like DBO much better than USO: the latter is getting killed by the contango each time it rolls its position at contract maturity.]]> Is Potash Corp. Overpriced? http://seekingalpha.com/article/119920-is-potash-corp-overpriced?source=feed#comment-385197 385197 That said, don't know where you heard that the IMF was "putting severe pressure" on Asian countries "to stabilize their currency". If anything, the IMF has been busy encouraging Asian countries to float, either upward (until the crisis hit) or downward (since then).
Looks to me you're hastily cobbling together half baked arguments to back your short position.
It's a case of "are you short because you're bearish or are you bearish because you're short?"
But yes, it looks overbought and might healthily retrace.]]>
Thu, 12 Feb 2009 07:50:42 -0500 That said, don't know where you heard that the IMF was "putting severe pressure" on Asian countries "to stabilize their currency". If anything, the IMF has been busy encouraging Asian countries to float, either upward (until the crisis hit) or downward (since then).
Looks to me you're hastily cobbling together half baked arguments to back your short position.
It's a case of "are you short because you're bearish or are you bearish because you're short?"
But yes, it looks overbought and might healthily retrace.]]>
In Praise of Suze Orman http://seekingalpha.com/article/120016-in-praise-of-suze-orman?source=feed#comment-384977 384977 Didn't know she was a virgin, by the way, nor that she was gay. (Couldn't care less in fact)]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:33:43 -0500 Didn't know she was a virgin, by the way, nor that she was gay. (Couldn't care less in fact)]]> Adult Education Charts Wreck the Curve http://seekingalpha.com/article/116062-adult-education-charts-wreck-the-curve?source=feed#comment-364720 364720 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 22:27:21 -0500 Mosaic: Feeding on Higher Prices, But Outlook Is Scrawny http://seekingalpha.com/article/114071-mosaic-feeding-on-higher-prices-but-outlook-is-scrawny?source=feed#comment-356150 356150

On Jan 10 09:27 AM Tim Plaehn wrote:

> Most of this article is cut and paste from the earnings press release.]]>
Wed, 14 Jan 2009 22:23:13 -0500

On Jan 10 09:27 AM Tim Plaehn wrote:

> Most of this article is cut and paste from the earnings press release.]]>
Is There an Apple Community Anymore? http://seekingalpha.com/article/114341-is-there-an-apple-community-anymore?source=feed#comment-354261 354261
:)]]>
Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:00:48 -0500
:)]]>
10 Market Thoughts to Start the New Year http://seekingalpha.com/article/112852-10-market-thoughts-to-start-the-new-year?source=feed#comment-342985 342985 Happy new year to you all anyway and good luck in your trading/investing,

TJ
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Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:51:45 -0500 Happy new year to you all anyway and good luck in your trading/investing,

TJ
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