taojaxx

Is There an Apple Community Anymore?

Good article indeed. Zach, it's amazing how better your articles are when your stock positions do not get in th way....

:)

Can You See Apple Under $60?

Zach,
Thanks for responding, especially on a day where the market hasn't been kind to you on AAPL.
I respect your opinion as it is backed by action. My point is whatever the severity of the expected contraction, I am only short if I feel the market has underestimated the potential shock.
Here, the market has corrected from 1550 a year ago to 7xx last week. The risk reward of a short position has deteriorated accordingly. I was short SPY from August 07 to Jan 08 (so in the 1300/1500). I don't think it is an attractive proposition to short when we have corrected about 45%. And shorting quality stocks when they have themselves been cut in half sounds all the more unattractive.
It is human nature to project the recent past in the foreseeable future. My experience tells me this is a source of illusion. My best decisions have come from visualizing a future that is different.
I think now is the time to do just that.
Not saying you won't make money on your position. Just saying you might be luckier than smart on that one.
Good luck anyway,
TJ




On Nov 24 10:11 AM Zach Bass wrote:

> taojaxx, I'm short because we're in the worst economic disaster in
> our history as a nation and the world. We're crashing man! Why would
> I expect anything else but to keep crashing until there's a reason
> not to crash? But even in a crash there are minor corrections on
> the way down. That's what is happening today (Monday Nov 24). But
> it won't last, because nothing has changed on the economic front
> to suggest an end to this disaster.

Can You See Apple Under $60?

I e mailed that article to myself to reflect on it when we get out of this mess.
Typical projection of the last 5 days in the coming 5 years. Plus, talking his own book... Remember the key question: are you short because you're bearish, or are you bearish because you're short?