taojaxx

Clues to the Next Market Move

I admire your certainties. Plus, based on ideas such as "the general complacency of traders as can be seen in the low price of the VIX". At 28. isn't the VIX at about 3 times its pre crisis level?
As to the natural gas play, the bounce after the EIA inventory statement lasted about 60 mn. NG contract ended the day at $3.65, about $.06 lower than the opening. Unfortunate illustration of the consistent failure of any bullish natural gas strategy. But maybe you use the ETFs rather than the futures contracts, in which case, I'd be interested in learning how you manage the added risk of the relative contangos.
Not disputing your bearish case. I'm just surprised how certain you are, especially as I'm not fazed by the arguments: the fact that home builders and regional lenders were early warnings in the recent past doesn't mean they're going to lead the market this time. They may, or may not. I too am skeptical about the green shoots theory, but for more fundamental reasons: Deleveraging doesn't stop in weeks as this is a structural shift. The US consumer retrenches for good and it's unclear to me who's going to pick up from them, certainly not the Chinese as they have no social security, no retirement benefits and no children to care for them in old age (one child policy) so they don't have a choice but to save like crazy, which is what they will keep doing.