taojaxx

The Good, Bad and the Ugly: Australian, U.S. and U.K. Economies

TK,
I'm not too good at geopolitics. My reaction would be these are not comparable pairs: Canada US were both on an ascending part of their historical cycles. I'm afraid China is on a historical upswing (after millenias of decay) while Australia is on a downswing after a mere 2 to 300 years upswing.
Hope I'm wrong, by the way, I like Aussies a lot. Like I said, not oo good at this. I already have a hard time firing where a stock will be trading a month out, let alone where a country will stand a decade out.


On Nov 08 09:53 PM Teutonic Knight wrote:

> taojaxx - - -
>
> Perhaps another point of interest that came to my mind is the parallel
> between China/Australia and United States/Canada in the realm of
> industrialization. During the last century of 1900-2000, as America
> ramped up its Industrial Revolution, Canada because of its geographical
> proximity, naturally had become the "Backyard of the United States",
> supplying all sorts of natural resources, - be it timber, paper,
> minerals, oil, natural gas, coal, asbestos, hydro electric power,
> and even fresh water, to name a few.
>
> And during the post-WWII decades of 1950-1970, the United States
> virtually soaked up all Canadian industrial enterprises by setting
> up subsidiaries, branch plants, and assembly plants. For many years
> until of late, this arrangement had worked very well as Canadian
> workers would enjoy almost the same benefits and pay as their American
> counterparts, with the "Loonie" hovering around the 90 cents to the
> US Dollar mark, as if to say Canada is at about 10% discount of its
> US equivalent goods and services in every walk of life.
>
> There is a similarity emerging here with Australia to becoming that
> "Backyard of China". The recent appreciation of the $A and their
> central bank raising interest rate are indicative of such a trend.
>
>
> Just a thought!
>
> TK

The Good, Bad and the Ugly: Australian, U.S. and U.K. Economies

Australia is growing because China is growing and buys its commodities. RBA hiking rates is like the little kid waving his arms when the orchestra gets loud and thinking he's conducting it. All they'll get is more carry trades, AUD appreciation with little impact on growth as commodities are priced in USD ( and shortly in yuan?).

Dollar Falls as Stock Rally Tempts the Carry Trade

Perhaps there's no point in trying to refinance my mortgage now: a 6% 30 year fixed liability is about to turn into a gold mine in an 18% inflation world. ;)