bullpasture's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/199769/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/131633-the-7-trillion-rally?source=feed#comment-468175 468175
By the way this statement of yours containing "...stimulus bill passed earlier this year will only retard the economy's recovery, since it boils down to government grabbing a huge amount of the private sector's money..." is inane and shows you are ideologically fixated as a "knee jerk" conservative. Haven't you grasped the fact that the "money" you worry about the government grabbing doesn't yet exist and won't be taken from the private sector in taxes and instead it is created with the Fed's "Quantitative Easing" after the treasury prints up some more treasury bills and notes to be purchased by them.

Good grief (says Charlie Brown). Get a life!]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 08:44:25 -0400
By the way this statement of yours containing "...stimulus bill passed earlier this year will only retard the economy's recovery, since it boils down to government grabbing a huge amount of the private sector's money..." is inane and shows you are ideologically fixated as a "knee jerk" conservative. Haven't you grasped the fact that the "money" you worry about the government grabbing doesn't yet exist and won't be taken from the private sector in taxes and instead it is created with the Fed's "Quantitative Easing" after the treasury prints up some more treasury bills and notes to be purchased by them.

Good grief (says Charlie Brown). Get a life!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130101-six-energy-adrs-with-attractive-yields?source=feed#comment-457922 457922
Nice quick review you provided here.

A piece of advice though. Generally, Canadian company stock sold on the NYSE in the US is not an ADR but rather the real thing. The difference is that the dividends are reported in C$ and payment to US owners uses the currency conversion rate at time of payment. This provides an additional opportunity to plan for growth gains by anticipating the future currency directions. For example, TRP is the US NYSE listing for TransCanada while it is traded in Canada on the Toronto exchange as TRP-T (or as referenced on the Yahoo finance site as TRP.TO). The general price difference between these two listings is essentially the currency conversion factor. For example, TRP-T closed yesterday at C$30.00 and TRP closed at US$ 24.34 with a computed 0.81 factor of CAD/USD. If you examine Yahoo CADUSD=X conversion quote page and Intraday charting, you will see that the Canadian Dollar closed yesterday with a value of 0.8088 US$. Starting in 2002 until the end of October 2007, the US$ decreased in value against the CAD$. Thus if you plot Canadian stocks (e.g. TRP.TO to TRP or SU.TO to SU) during this period, you will see that the US shares had price appreciation at a greater "rate" than the Canadian exchange shares as our dollar fell in value. Likewise, starting around July 2008 when the US$ began its strengthening run, the Canadian dollar lost value rapidly compared to the US dollar. That's why Canadian stocks bought off the NYSE, such as their popular energy and mining shares, lost value so steeply in the "waterfall" crash last autumn.

What's neat now is that a currency "play" can be had in addition to market growth appreciation when purchasing Canadian company stock. Right now the Canadian dollar will buy "only" about US$0.80. But if you believe that our future US economy will see the US dollar depreciate due to inflation induced with the massive deficits and the Fed pumping money recklessly into the market, while the exchange rate approaches parity again with the stronger Canadian economy, you can get an additional 20% gain in your US exchange stock price over the actual market gain (and perhaps even more if the Canadian dollar shoots past parity)!!! So you should now buy US shares of Canadian companies as a hedge aginst the inevitable inflation we will experience.......]]> Thu, 09 Apr 2009 15:49:22 -0400
Nice quick review you provided here.

A piece of advice though. Generally, Canadian company stock sold on the NYSE in the US is not an ADR but rather the real thing. The difference is that the dividends are reported in C$ and payment to US owners uses the currency conversion rate at time of payment. This provides an additional opportunity to plan for growth gains by anticipating the future currency directions. For example, TRP is the US NYSE listing for TransCanada while it is traded in Canada on the Toronto exchange as TRP-T (or as referenced on the Yahoo finance site as TRP.TO). The general price difference between these two listings is essentially the currency conversion factor. For example, TRP-T closed yesterday at C$30.00 and TRP closed at US$ 24.34 with a computed 0.81 factor of CAD/USD. If you examine Yahoo CADUSD=X conversion quote page and Intraday charting, you will see that the Canadian Dollar closed yesterday with a value of 0.8088 US$. Starting in 2002 until the end of October 2007, the US$ decreased in value against the CAD$. Thus if you plot Canadian stocks (e.g. TRP.TO to TRP or SU.TO to SU) during this period, you will see that the US shares had price appreciation at a greater "rate" than the Canadian exchange shares as our dollar fell in value. Likewise, starting around July 2008 when the US$ began its strengthening run, the Canadian dollar lost value rapidly compared to the US dollar. That's why Canadian stocks bought off the NYSE, such as their popular energy and mining shares, lost value so steeply in the "waterfall" crash last autumn.

What's neat now is that a currency "play" can be had in addition to market growth appreciation when purchasing Canadian company stock. Right now the Canadian dollar will buy "only" about US$0.80. But if you believe that our future US economy will see the US dollar depreciate due to inflation induced with the massive deficits and the Fed pumping money recklessly into the market, while the exchange rate approaches parity again with the stronger Canadian economy, you can get an additional 20% gain in your US exchange stock price over the actual market gain (and perhaps even more if the Canadian dollar shoots past parity)!!! So you should now buy US shares of Canadian companies as a hedge aginst the inevitable inflation we will experience.......]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130101-six-energy-adrs-with-attractive-yields?source=feed#comment-457847 457847 Statoilhydro has already announced the board of directors recommended dividend payment which must be ratified by the general stockholders meeting on May 19, 2009. It was contained in their website 2/17/2009 announcement of 4th quarter 2008 results and preliminary annual 2008 report. A regular dividend of 4.40 Norwegian Krones (NOK) per share AND a special supplemental dividend of an additional 2.85 NOK for a total of 7.25 Krone to be paid on May 30, 2009 (ex-dividend 5/20/2009). Using yesterday's closing price of $17.51 the current conversion factor would provide a US$ dividend of $1.0881 for a 6.214% share rate. Not Bad for a stock that should appreciate significantly in the years ahead. Last year the regular dividend was 4.20 NOK with a special supplement of 4.30 for a total of 8.50 NOK. Of course last year the stock had a much higher price in May and thus the dividend actually was smaller than this years proposed one..........


On Apr 09 07:50 AM Michael Fitzsimmons wrote:

> statoil's past dividend, and their website actually says this, that
> the target 45-50% of net income on dividends and share repurchases.
> since the first half of 2008 was a bonanza for statoil, and since
> natural gas prices in europe are higher than in the US, plus the
> russian nat gas scare (again), i think statoil's dividend announcement
> in may will surprise people to the upside. statoil anywhere under
> $20 is a bargain.]]> Thu, 09 Apr 2009 14:57:29 -0400 Statoilhydro has already announced the board of directors recommended dividend payment which must be ratified by the general stockholders meeting on May 19, 2009. It was contained in their website 2/17/2009 announcement of 4th quarter 2008 results and preliminary annual 2008 report. A regular dividend of 4.40 Norwegian Krones (NOK) per share AND a special supplemental dividend of an additional 2.85 NOK for a total of 7.25 Krone to be paid on May 30, 2009 (ex-dividend 5/20/2009). Using yesterday's closing price of $17.51 the current conversion factor would provide a US$ dividend of $1.0881 for a 6.214% share rate. Not Bad for a stock that should appreciate significantly in the years ahead. Last year the regular dividend was 4.20 NOK with a special supplement of 4.30 for a total of 8.50 NOK. Of course last year the stock had a much higher price in May and thus the dividend actually was smaller than this years proposed one..........


On Apr 09 07:50 AM Michael Fitzsimmons wrote:

> statoil's past dividend, and their website actually says this, that
> the target 45-50% of net income on dividends and share repurchases.
> since the first half of 2008 was a bonanza for statoil, and since
> natural gas prices in europe are higher than in the US, plus the
> russian nat gas scare (again), i think statoil's dividend announcement
> in may will surprise people to the upside. statoil anywhere under
> $20 is a bargain.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129068-stick-with-gold-and-the-oil-stocks?source=feed#comment-449109 449109
Couple of points I'd like to add to your suggestions:
First, CNG conversion kits ARE available right now for only a couple of thousand dollars and can be installed by a "shade tree" mechanic to your existing car. If your home is supplied with natural gas for utilities, you can even set up for a small cost your very own CNG private "pumping station" for refueling. Go to Google and enter CNG and you'll find a wealth of info. The "show stopper" problem is that in the United States we have EPA regulations that do not allow any modifications to an existing engine pollution control components (including and especially the control computer chip) and massive fines are levied against owner and mechanic if caught. It's a shame these laws can't be amended for a CNG conversion because pollution is actually reduced! So retrofit conversions have a political road block and not a technical, marketing, or cost issue.

Second, I agree that oil companies will be a reliable wildly appreciating equity. However, I would shy away from the big integrateds (both domestic, e.g. XOM, CVX, etc. and foreign, e.g. TOT, Shell, etc.) and US based oil producers (e.g. OXY, APA, APC, etc.) because in this country any refiner and/or retail distributor (and possibly US sourced suppliers) of fossile fuels will be taxed severly by environmentally blackmailed politicians. I believe the safest bet is to own the big Canadian oil producers (e.g. CNQ, SU, NXY, and TLM). After all, their oil sands reserves are said to match the original size of the Saudi oil discovery. Right now we are their largest customer and the oil comes directly to us via pipelines (thus making a mockery of the political flag waving against "foreign oil"). If the Obama administration limits "oil sands sourced" oil imports due to carbon emmissions concerns, then Canada will simply add more pipelines directed to their Pacific coast and sell it to China. The additional advantage in owning Canadian oil companies is due to currency issues. When you buy shares in a Canadian oil producer, even though you buy in Dollars from American exchanges, those are actual real shares of stock (not ADRs as is the case for most all other foreign equities) in US dollars. If you believe that in the future our American dollar will eventually depreciate especially against the commodity based Canadian economy and its dollar, the you get an extra "kicker" in equity valuation as the dollar declines. Since the Canadian shares and their US shares are the same, go graph any of these oil producer stock prices for the same company on a Yahoo chart (it will work, e.g. SU and Canadian SU.TO plotted simultaneously) along with the currency exchange rate CADUSD=X). You will see almost 100% correlation between these stock prices and changes in the foreign exchange rates match almost perfectly with the exaggerated changes occuring between the prices of Canadian and US stock share prices. Thus you can see the Canadian Dollar was the strongest at May 20, 2008 simultaneousl with the stock price (it had been getting stronger against the dollar for several years and the US stock prices showed it by increasing faster in prices than their Canadian counterparts). When the oil producer equity market started its decline after May 2008, you'll notice that by June when the US dollar started its strengthening, the price of US based shares of Canadian oil producers declined FASTER. We are at the bottom now and as the dollar will eventually depreciate due to both inflation and weakening relative economies, the US priced Canadian stock shares will eventually zoom up with an additional "kicker" added! Thus you can keep your US dollars and have them grown as if you played the foreign exchange market simultaneously as a side bet.]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 09:34:43 -0400
Couple of points I'd like to add to your suggestions:
First, CNG conversion kits ARE available right now for only a couple of thousand dollars and can be installed by a "shade tree" mechanic to your existing car. If your home is supplied with natural gas for utilities, you can even set up for a small cost your very own CNG private "pumping station" for refueling. Go to Google and enter CNG and you'll find a wealth of info. The "show stopper" problem is that in the United States we have EPA regulations that do not allow any modifications to an existing engine pollution control components (including and especially the control computer chip) and massive fines are levied against owner and mechanic if caught. It's a shame these laws can't be amended for a CNG conversion because pollution is actually reduced! So retrofit conversions have a political road block and not a technical, marketing, or cost issue.

Second, I agree that oil companies will be a reliable wildly appreciating equity. However, I would shy away from the big integrateds (both domestic, e.g. XOM, CVX, etc. and foreign, e.g. TOT, Shell, etc.) and US based oil producers (e.g. OXY, APA, APC, etc.) because in this country any refiner and/or retail distributor (and possibly US sourced suppliers) of fossile fuels will be taxed severly by environmentally blackmailed politicians. I believe the safest bet is to own the big Canadian oil producers (e.g. CNQ, SU, NXY, and TLM). After all, their oil sands reserves are said to match the original size of the Saudi oil discovery. Right now we are their largest customer and the oil comes directly to us via pipelines (thus making a mockery of the political flag waving against "foreign oil"). If the Obama administration limits "oil sands sourced" oil imports due to carbon emmissions concerns, then Canada will simply add more pipelines directed to their Pacific coast and sell it to China. The additional advantage in owning Canadian oil companies is due to currency issues. When you buy shares in a Canadian oil producer, even though you buy in Dollars from American exchanges, those are actual real shares of stock (not ADRs as is the case for most all other foreign equities) in US dollars. If you believe that in the future our American dollar will eventually depreciate especially against the commodity based Canadian economy and its dollar, the you get an extra "kicker" in equity valuation as the dollar declines. Since the Canadian shares and their US shares are the same, go graph any of these oil producer stock prices for the same company on a Yahoo chart (it will work, e.g. SU and Canadian SU.TO plotted simultaneously) along with the currency exchange rate CADUSD=X). You will see almost 100% correlation between these stock prices and changes in the foreign exchange rates match almost perfectly with the exaggerated changes occuring between the prices of Canadian and US stock share prices. Thus you can see the Canadian Dollar was the strongest at May 20, 2008 simultaneousl with the stock price (it had been getting stronger against the dollar for several years and the US stock prices showed it by increasing faster in prices than their Canadian counterparts). When the oil producer equity market started its decline after May 2008, you'll notice that by June when the US dollar started its strengthening, the price of US based shares of Canadian oil producers declined FASTER. We are at the bottom now and as the dollar will eventually depreciate due to both inflation and weakening relative economies, the US priced Canadian stock shares will eventually zoom up with an additional "kicker" added! Thus you can keep your US dollars and have them grown as if you played the foreign exchange market simultaneously as a side bet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127171-gold-bulls-should-stay-away-from-gold-stocks?source=feed#comment-435077 435077 Sun, 22 Mar 2009 09:17:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117775-the-end-of-gold-part-two?source=feed#comment-373200 373200
Btw, I really liked the comments that Mr Freddo made and perhaps the best understanding we can obtain from the paradox that gold seems to exist simultaneously in both a bull and a bear market is his comment that "In time of crisis, gold may be the best investment for the individual but the worst investment for the economy".]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 09:41:26 -0500
Btw, I really liked the comments that Mr Freddo made and perhaps the best understanding we can obtain from the paradox that gold seems to exist simultaneously in both a bull and a bear market is his comment that "In time of crisis, gold may be the best investment for the individual but the worst investment for the economy".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93938-the-most-important-fact-to-know-about-oil-investing?source=feed#comment-246054 246054
Even the legendary Boone Pickens really can't predict this market but at least he is big enough (and humble) to admit when he made a mistake as in his call this spring.

Good show!]]> Fri, 05 Sep 2008 08:29:47 -0400
Even the legendary Boone Pickens really can't predict this market but at least he is big enough (and humble) to admit when he made a mistake as in his call this spring.

Good show!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78934-occidental-petroleum-s-oil-properties-provide-great-value-for-investors?source=feed#comment-175541 175541 mcdep.com (as tagged above for the "author's website") where you can find an amazing collection of research going back for many years. Any particular energy stock he mentions for SA publication, has a complete report available for free and it generally has been analyzed several times a year.]]> Wed, 28 May 2008 17:47:16 -0400 mcdep.com (as tagged above for the "author's website") where you can find an amazing collection of research going back for many years. Any particular energy stock he mentions for SA publication, has a complete report available for free and it generally has been analyzed several times a year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78513-penn-west-energy-more-questions-than-answers?source=feed#comment-174069 174069 ERF). I do not have the skills to critically assess all the financial data available for these two organizations. But I have tended to acccept David's argument that for some reason, PWE executives are somewhat evasive in providing clear strategic goals, identifying reserve replacement, and "dancing" around accounting numbers. Part of the reason I was initially focused on PWE was the prominent attention that Kurt Wulff gives it at his McDep.com web site over the years. He has strangely been silence with regards to ERF yet he has been providing data on this particular canroy for many years. I have followed the data for ERF on his site and compared it to both PGH and PWE that he has provided over the years. As a result, ERF looks extremely consistent and when I read in detail the material they provide on their web site and all released performance and presentation material with their considerable explanations, I simply felt that over the long haul, ERF makes a better case for future commitment to high income generation no matter what the future tax situation brings.

As an additional note of interest, TheStreet.Com rating website provides a ranking grade for the 7 canroys currently traded on American stock exchanges as ADRs. They recently acquired the Weiss Group who has a fine reputation for evaluation of stocks and banks, etc. using accounting information. As a result it was interesting to see that ERF carried the grade of B-, the highest of all 7 canroys, while PWE caried the grade of D+ with a sell recommendation! FYI, the remaining 5 canroys were rated as: BTE C-, AAV D, HTE D, PVX C, and PGH C........................ Hope this dialog keeps going and I would like to hear what both Jack and Dave think about ERF.]]> Mon, 26 May 2008 12:57:13 -0400 ERF). I do not have the skills to critically assess all the financial data available for these two organizations. But I have tended to acccept David's argument that for some reason, PWE executives are somewhat evasive in providing clear strategic goals, identifying reserve replacement, and "dancing" around accounting numbers. Part of the reason I was initially focused on PWE was the prominent attention that Kurt Wulff gives it at his McDep.com web site over the years. He has strangely been silence with regards to ERF yet he has been providing data on this particular canroy for many years. I have followed the data for ERF on his site and compared it to both PGH and PWE that he has provided over the years. As a result, ERF looks extremely consistent and when I read in detail the material they provide on their web site and all released performance and presentation material with their considerable explanations, I simply felt that over the long haul, ERF makes a better case for future commitment to high income generation no matter what the future tax situation brings.

As an additional note of interest, TheStreet.Com rating website provides a ranking grade for the 7 canroys currently traded on American stock exchanges as ADRs. They recently acquired the Weiss Group who has a fine reputation for evaluation of stocks and banks, etc. using accounting information. As a result it was interesting to see that ERF carried the grade of B-, the highest of all 7 canroys, while PWE caried the grade of D+ with a sell recommendation! FYI, the remaining 5 canroys were rated as: BTE C-, AAV D, HTE D, PVX C, and PGH C........................ Hope this dialog keeps going and I would like to hear what both Jack and Dave think about ERF.]]>