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Alex Bernstein

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  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    Today New York stock brokerage firm, H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH made Buy recommendation with target $2 for NCQ: " "In our opinion, there is somewhat of an overhang on the stock due to the uncertainty regarding the approval and construction of the AMD road and the firm’s relationship with NANA."

    "We value Arctic at a 0.25x multiple of our NAV of $3.56 per share. In our opinion, this valuation fairly accounts for the large potential of the district, the high-grades found at Arctic and the strong community support achieved by the firm, offset by the lack of an access road and the large capital expenditures required to move the project into production. Further, we utilize a 15% discount rate, which seems appropriate given the risk/reward structure of the project coupled with the successful track record of the management team."
    Jun 16 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    To follow up on previous discussion about NovaCopper and NANA relationship:

    "The Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects (UKMP) are located in the Ambler mining district in northwest Alaska, a region known to host deposits rich in copper, zinc, lead, silver, and gold. In fact, the Red Dog mine located 170 miles to the west of the UKMP, is one the largest and highest grade zinc mines in the world.

    The UKMP represents an agreement between NovaCopper and NANA Regional Corporation Inc. that consolidates their respective land holdings in the district and entrusts NovaCopper with the unique opportunity to explore and develop this high-grade and prospective poly-metallic district."

    Another reason why NCQ is undervalued stock.
    May 8 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    There is a lot of confusion about NANA's relationship with NovaCopper. Therefore, let's look at it:

    NANA Regional Corporation, Inc. (NANA) is a Regional Alaska Native corporation formed in 1971 under the Alaska Native Land Claims Settlement Act (ANCSA). NANA originally enrolled 4,761 shareholders. Once the "1991 Amendments" permitted it, NANA shareholders voted to extend stock ownership to those born after Dec. 18, 1971. Today NANA has more than 13,500 shareholders.
    In the last three years NANA shareholders represented over 50% of the employees at NovaCopper project which is located in an area with high rates of poverty and employment. NovaCopper also have a scholarship program to help the young people in the borough.

    Consideration Paid by NovaCopper to NANA totaled $28M
    $4 million worth of NovaGold common shares plus $24 million dollars paid in two installments ($12M each year for two years)
    Consideration Received
    Exclusive rights for mineral exploration on Bornite and ANCSA Lands and non-exclusive rights for entry and access across their lands to access Arctic and the Ambler Lands
    Scholarship Payments
    $20k/year for 5 years; $40k/year until first lease or surface use agreement signed (ie mine); $100k afterwards
    Non-Transferable Back-In Right
    Following a Construction Decision – NANA has right to elect to acquire an interest between 16% and 25% to participate as an equity owner in the mine and then a JV is formed.
    NANA pays % elected share of historical costs spent to date plus share of future costs including construction capital.
    OR
    NANA takes a 15% net proceeds royalty (NPI) after NovaCopper gets 9% return on investment.
    Right for equity ownership in the first mine on NANA Lands and first mine on Ambler Lands. Need to back-in on the first mine on either of the Lands for NANA to continue to have back-in rights on any subsequent mines. One NANA elects 15% NPI then all future mines on those Lands automatically gets 15% NPI (no ownership rights to future mines if back-in not taken on the first mine on those Lands).
    Net Smelter Return
    NANA gets a NSR of 1% on a mine built on the Ambler Lands in consideration for NANA entering into a Surface Use Agreement for access on NANA lands to access the mine.
    NANA gets a NSR of 2% - 2.5% on a mine build on the Bornite or ANCSA Lands in consideration for NANA entering into a Mining Lease on their lands. (2% on patent claims around No 1 ore body and 2.5% on lands deeded through ANCSA which NANA shares with the other Alaskan native corporations and therefore 0.5% higher)

    Therefore, NANA and their Alaskan tribal members are in vast majority friends of NovaCopper.
    May 7 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: Value Created By Market Structure Deficiencies [View article]
    Thank you Alpha Hunter for excellent article about NovaCopper. I started to buy the stock at $1.90, continued to buy at $1.45, and most recently I bought the stock at $1.09. I continue supporting the company, because of their tremendous upside potential with low downside risk.
    May 6 05:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Be Skeptical On NovaCopper [View article]
    I strongly disagree with this article analysis. Please read new article "NovaCopper: Irrational ETF Selling Could Mean A Multi-Bagger" by Kingsley Park Capital, which have completely different view on NCQ than Hamlet Capital.
    Dec 20 05:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Key Investors Abandoning Kodiak? [View article]
    Who cares?
    Sep 2 04:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG): Q4 beats on the bottom line. Oil & gas sales of $131M, a 138% increase Y/Y and a 17% increase Q/Q. 1.7M MBOE sold or an average of 18,200 BOE per day during the quarter, as compared to 662K BOE, or an average of 7,200 BOE/d in the same period in 2011. Shares -1.2% AH. [View news story]
    I third ???
    Mar 1 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Costco: Greatly Overvaluved [View article]
    Ask anyone -who cares?
    Feb 15 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper: 2 Potential Projects Make It A Stock Worth Considering [View article]
    Thank you for good analysis of Novacopper. I would just buy and hold NCQ, There is no reason to use option strategy in this case. The stock has price and nature of speculative investment. Therefore, it has explosive growth potential. I accumulated over 10% of my total stock portfolio in NCQ with hope of it potential merger to a large mining company in two to three years.
    Feb 11 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading And Investing Nova Copper And A Post Script On Precious Metals [View article]
    What market catalyses do you envision in the near future for NCQ to pass over $2.60?
    Jan 8 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Stocks Jim Cramer Is Bullish About [View article]
    I lost a lot of money buying NG, because of Cramer's advise. I still believe in the story. In the past year, Cramer dumped Qualcom, BP, which worked out fine after his "sell" recommendation. I believe that he lacks a conviction. As soon, as hedge funds reduced their positions in NovaGold, he bailed out, even though the company fundamentals did not changed a bit. Now I will follow NG on my own.
    Jun 15 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AT&T (T)/T-Mobile (DTEGY.PK) combo makes sense on many different levels, Roger Entner writes: "At 7.1x Ebita and about $1,000 per sub, AT&T has struck a great bargain. DT, which acquired VoiceStream for $24B in 2001, is profitably exiting a growing headache." And Sprint (S)? The merger will allow (and force) it to clearly define itself as the value leader in the U.S. market.  [View news story]
    AT&T's $39 billion purchase of T-Mobile. How would it affect AMT?
    Mar 20 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The White House calls a halt to new oil drilling until a review of the Gulf spill has been conducted. As costs mount, BP's (BP +0.6%) reputation is in tatters, as the worsening incident threatens to undo marketing efforts to rebrand the company as “beyond petroleum.” But some analysts say the $20B drop in BP's market cap is an overreaction.  [View news story]
    MarketGuy,

    In your opinion, at what price BP stock will be attractive buy? It seams to me that even you would consider buying BP stock at some level. Otherwise, your cretinism of the stock is useless.
    May 2 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The White House calls a halt to new oil drilling until a review of the Gulf spill has been conducted. As costs mount, BP's (BP +0.6%) reputation is in tatters, as the worsening incident threatens to undo marketing efforts to rebrand the company as “beyond petroleum.” But some analysts say the $20B drop in BP's market cap is an overreaction.  [View news story]
    MarketGuy,

    Do you feel that BP $25 bill drop on the stock is justified knowing that it might be let say even $6 bill clean up? By the way, BP insured all environmental clean up costs on this spill. Worldwide hysteria over BP oil spill would be forgotten in about 2 weeks the same way we forgot Valdez disaster within two weeks after that disaster happened. I do not have any doubt that BP financial will impress investors once the dust will settle.
    May 2 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The White House calls a halt to new oil drilling until a review of the Gulf spill has been conducted. As costs mount, BP's (BP +0.6%) reputation is in tatters, as the worsening incident threatens to undo marketing efforts to rebrand the company as “beyond petroleum.” But some analysts say the $20B drop in BP's market cap is an overreaction.  [View news story]
    After oil spill, BP stock severely undervalued. According to CNN since the oil spill occurred the value of BP's stock has dropped by 25 billion dollars. The spilll clean up estimate is about 1 billion dollars estimate. That represents small fraction of BP ernings. I am a buyer BPJanuary 2011 60 leaps, because by the time dust will settle, and CNN will find something else to talk about BP stock will comeback to their proper evaluation ($60 to $65 dollar a share).
    May 1 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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