waf76

In Earnings Season, Who Cares About the Unemployment Rate?

Welcome to the Darwinian economy where it is survival of the fittest. The market has come too far too fast but who's complaining. It's either what we have now or a much slower market recovery coinciding with job creation. I'll choose the former. Companies can't make their earnings without the payroll slashing. Completely logical in my estimation.

Beware the Next Bubble

I certainly agree that we're in a bubble and knowing that we're in one is half the battle. The government has taken the approach of asking itself the following question: How do we dig ourselves out of this hole? Answer: We dig a bigger one.

Dow: Where to Next?

This also happens to coincide with earnings season. Remember this rally first began when Pandit whispered about making 2 billion in January


On Oct 05 10:53 AM TurtleTrader72 wrote:

> From a technical perspective, there is a major move coming into play
> for the overall markets over the next several weeks. The bollinger
> bands on the longer term weekly charts of the VIX are significantly
> starting to tighten up and this usually means that major move is
> about to happen. Although the bollinger bands do not provide any
> indications regarding the direction of the move, I do feel that we
> will experience a continuation of the current intermediate rally.
> Any weakness from the current levels should be viewed as be a buying
> opportunity in my opinion. My gut tells me we will see the DOW above
> 10 000 before we get a more significant correction. We'll see i guess..

Are U.S. Markets About to Get Drilled?

another reason would be to lower the cost of US goods thereby increasing our exports...the only way we can truly get out of this mess...


On Oct 05 08:41 AM rick12345 wrote:

> The only reason the US wants a stronger yen and Yaun is because it
> encourages spending, thereby reducing savings (in Japan and China
> that is). You got yourselves into this mess, don't expect Asia to
> get you out of it. Tax consumption like the rest of the world if
> you want to reduce your deficit.

How to Play the Real Story Behind Earnings

You miss the point as to what's going on. Companies trim down their expenses to be profitable. That is step 1. Does it mean the recession is over? Hardly not, but we've taken the first step which is improvement in earnings. Only when they stablize will you see companies begin to rehire offsetting new hires with increase in revenues. Do you think everything will happen overnight? Unemployment is a lagging indicator for a reason. Look at the temporary staffing companies. If you see an increase in their business then that's a sign of a real recovery. Temp staffing numbers represent a leading indicator. I don't think we we're heading lower because honestly we're not up so high as is. The market tends to overshoot both ways so if anything we still have more to overshoot.

How Stocks Perform After Being Added to the Dow

I'm guessing a pharmaceutical

The U.S. Needs More Inflation?

since the problem originated in housing i think inflation would benefit the country. people were using their houses as an ATM machine taking out HELOCs and spending to purchase other items including running up credit cards. Now their home values have dropped 30% or even more. What better way to help them than to reflate their home prices? I think most people's wages are relatively flat to begin with. We missed out on this opportunity by bailing out Wall Street instead of Main Street. All the bailout money the banks received could have gone to distressed homeowners who wouldve utilized that money to pay off their homes or whatever and ultimately the banks would have the money and lend to create the multiplier effect. Instead the gov't gave the money to the banks who used it to purchase other banks or to earn interest at the Fed and never lent that money out. The homeowners were left to drown. Obviously this presents a case of moral hazard as homeowners who did the right thing wouldnt get anything while those who were care free with their money would benefit. That potentially could've been resolved by some sort of tax credit spread out over a period of time for those who didnt have to be bailed out. Definitely not perfect, far from it, but I think it wouldve been better than what was done.

The Battle of the Forces: Reflation vs. Deflation

You can use temp employment as a leading indicator, that would be more precise.

Was That the End of the Rally?

I definitely get the sense that the bearish sentiment is coming back. I see this as the 2nd leg down in a W shaped recovery and as an opportunity for those who didnt get involved in the 1st rally to get in at an acceptable entry point. The whole week looks like a down week so I expect late buying on Friday.

Market, Economy Downward Spiral Has Been Broken

I think a recovery is on the way but lets not get too ahead of ourselves. There are great companies out there, still profitable, sitting on a lot of cash. The apples and googles of the world. They will perform well regardless and you can very well see a v shaped recovery in their stock prices. Look for these types of growth stocks along with any beaten up stock thats has a decent yield. Can't really go wrong with that approach. You need to tread more carefully around the financials. It pays to be speculative but understand that thats what ur doing, being speculative. All it takes is one shoe to drop to wipe out the previous 8 week gains.

The Virtue of Pessimism

Cash is king. You have to like any company that has a lot of cash and no debt with steady or growing revenue. APPL, STV come to mind.

The Cost of a Global Empire

I remember when a tshirt label that said made in the USA was the coolest thing but now all we make is bombs. Imperial hubris is what will be the downfall of our country. Lobbyists have hijacked our country. Our political system is corrupt. We're a morally bankrupt society who has the audacity to tell others how to live. Oh yeah we're financially bankrupt too. We have people in our government whose loyalties reside with another country. All under the guise of any catch phrase slogan, 'our way of life', 'support the troops', 'the only democracy in the middle east', etc, etc. etc.....the masses are asses and have no idea this is going on.

Looking at the Market and Three Tech Stocks - Dell, Apple and IBM

How are you looking at Apple using P/E ratio when their iphone revenue is based on the subscription method of accounting which recognizes a sale of 1 iphone over 8 quarters? Your comparison is highly inaccurate. I hope its not the sole method in concluded thats the reason you like Dell. At this point HP looks like a better option.

Anticipating a Sell-Off

squark62, i agree as well. Nothing new has occurred. There are no indications that this will be sustainable but I'm pleasanty surprised at tech's strong rally.

Consumer Spending: Last Bastion of U.S. Economy in Full Retreat

70% of the US economy is represented by consumer spending. How does TARP provide relief to the biggest driving force of the economy? Answer: it doesn't. It actually devalues their dollar, reducing their purchasing power at a time where real savings are increasing so retail gets hit with a double whammy. As today is January 20th, we are probably at the height of optimism with Obama being inaugurated today but pessism will give way once people realize the government hasn't done a thing for them but make them poorer. Oh yeah but here's your slice of the pie, 500 bucks. Ridiculous.