Hefaistos's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/200744/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/88851-the-case-against-investing-in-the-dow-industrials-for-now?source=feed#comment-459685 459685 Sat, 11 Apr 2009 02:57:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124302-spain-s-unemployment-continues-to-surge-will-it-hit-20?source=feed#comment-414640 414640 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 13:55:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123733-problem-banks-in-2008-are-nowhere-close-to-1990-91?source=feed#comment-410816 410816 Thus, a lot more of problems are to be expected, through 2010.]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 08:52:15 -0500 Thus, a lot more of problems are to be expected, through 2010.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122500-can-lundin-go-it-alone-after-failed-merger?source=feed#comment-404433 404433 Thu, 26 Feb 2009 10:21:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121881-made-in-usa-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-398435 398435
Also, the second graph is a mis-representation. A long term growth graph should always be shown in a log diagram, not with a nominal scale. The correct log graph would probably show that we actually have a declining growth rate.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 10:02:52 -0500
Also, the second graph is a mis-representation. A long term growth graph should always be shown in a log diagram, not with a nominal scale. The correct log graph would probably show that we actually have a declining growth rate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119340-another-better-way-of-looking-at-this-market?source=feed#comment-382795 382795 Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:49:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119654-russian-debt-and-the-euro?source=feed#comment-382482 382482 Tue, 10 Feb 2009 12:17:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119590-russia-about-to-default-on-sovereign-debt-again?source=feed#comment-382446 382446 2. A rescheduling is not a default. It is just a way to survive your debt load until cash flows turn positive again. Russian companies are basically ok, they suffer from depressed raw materials prices. But anytime, all the stimulance packages and bailouts will be enough to get growth going again, and oil prices etc will rise, saving those companies. Thus, a rescheduling is the right thing to do.]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 11:53:36 -0500 2. A rescheduling is not a default. It is just a way to survive your debt load until cash flows turn positive again. Russian companies are basically ok, they suffer from depressed raw materials prices. But anytime, all the stimulance packages and bailouts will be enough to get growth going again, and oil prices etc will rise, saving those companies. Thus, a rescheduling is the right thing to do.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117044-another-view-of-industry-momentum?source=feed#comment-369129 369129
To lift those ailing assets away and let them mature in peace will be good for banks and for the taxpayer as well, since the economy most likely will recover within the average maturity of those assets.]]> Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:04:53 -0500
To lift those ailing assets away and let them mature in peace will be good for banks and for the taxpayer as well, since the economy most likely will recover within the average maturity of those assets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116941-a-picture-says-a-thousand-words?source=feed#comment-369029 369029 No country can forever have a negative balance of payments, since it adds to the national debt, and sooner or later too much of domestic assets will be owned by foreigners (Chinese, eg.), who will dictate the policies needed...]]> Wed, 28 Jan 2009 15:23:44 -0500 No country can forever have a negative balance of payments, since it adds to the national debt, and sooner or later too much of domestic assets will be owned by foreigners (Chinese, eg.), who will dictate the policies needed...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117027-has-the-u-s-spent-itself-into-a-hole-it-can-t-spend-its-way-out-of?source=feed#comment-368982 368982 Also, debt is a stock, and GDP is a flow, so they are like apples and pears in that respect.]]> Wed, 28 Jan 2009 14:49:27 -0500 Also, debt is a stock, and GDP is a flow, so they are like apples and pears in that respect.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116736-is-oil-moving-up-down-or-sideways?source=feed#comment-367628 367628 Tue, 27 Jan 2009 11:26:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116756-has-gold-appreciated-too-much-to-be-inflation-protection?source=feed#comment-367606 367606 I think it's relevant to put the price of gold in relation to the Yen rate. Gold has another 10% or so upward potential in terms of the very strong yen. And japanese are big buyers of paper gold.]]> Tue, 27 Jan 2009 11:17:37 -0500 I think it's relevant to put the price of gold in relation to the Yen rate. Gold has another 10% or so upward potential in terms of the very strong yen. And japanese are big buyers of paper gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116506-john-hussman-based-on-okun-s-law-obama-s-stimulus-plan-may-fall-short?source=feed#comment-366685 366685 Mon, 26 Jan 2009 13:37:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116402-how-will-markets-perform-in-2009?source=feed#comment-366272 366272 Your forecast for record bankruptcies in 2009 is likely to be fulfilled, especially since many small companies will do it by choice, as you say: "Corporations with debt levels well above the recapture value of the enterprise will have managers and equity holders choosing bankruptcy to cram down liability obligations and redistribute the option value on the equity. In this unique era, there is no shame of bankruptcy for not only the home mortgage holder but also the corporate debtor." I don't see why there should be any 'shame' in a bankruptcy like that. This is more a process of creative destruction, or, it could also be seen as a variant of management buyout, since I believe managements will be the only winners in this.
]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 08:23:18 -0500 Your forecast for record bankruptcies in 2009 is likely to be fulfilled, especially since many small companies will do it by choice, as you say: "Corporations with debt levels well above the recapture value of the enterprise will have managers and equity holders choosing bankruptcy to cram down liability obligations and redistribute the option value on the equity. In this unique era, there is no shame of bankruptcy for not only the home mortgage holder but also the corporate debtor." I don't see why there should be any 'shame' in a bankruptcy like that. This is more a process of creative destruction, or, it could also be seen as a variant of management buyout, since I believe managements will be the only winners in this.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116393-no-apology-for-the-banking-crisis?source=feed#comment-366252 366252 What you ask for is in reality a collective apology from a whole system.
For it's a failed system of 'arms-length' banking, relying on markets and rating agencies to provide necessary transparency and confidence.
The article never gets down to some of the major culprits, the ones hiding inside banks: THE problem has been the lax credit policies, lack of true risk management in banks. Not so much the preferences of the consumer to take on excess credit and consume, but more with sub-optimizing banks, always to prone to forget the persistent history of bank-related crises.]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 08:03:19 -0500 What you ask for is in reality a collective apology from a whole system.
For it's a failed system of 'arms-length' banking, relying on markets and rating agencies to provide necessary transparency and confidence.
The article never gets down to some of the major culprits, the ones hiding inside banks: THE problem has been the lax credit policies, lack of true risk management in banks. Not so much the preferences of the consumer to take on excess credit and consume, but more with sub-optimizing banks, always to prone to forget the persistent history of bank-related crises.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116440-government-risk-rises-credit-markets-face-structural-collapse?source=feed#comment-366232 366232 I want to add one component. This week there are some big treasury auctions, and there is a worry there won't be enough demand from foreign investors, leading to higher yields. That's easy to understand given the high dollar rate and the low yields, and the prospect for inflation in not too distant future. Is it likely that the Fed steps in in these upcoming treasury auctions to avoid having higher yields? How would such instant monetization be perceived? Or will they act only on the secondary market?]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 07:34:16 -0500 I want to add one component. This week there are some big treasury auctions, and there is a worry there won't be enough demand from foreign investors, leading to higher yields. That's easy to understand given the high dollar rate and the low yields, and the prospect for inflation in not too distant future. Is it likely that the Fed steps in in these upcoming treasury auctions to avoid having higher yields? How would such instant monetization be perceived? Or will they act only on the secondary market?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116371-2009-economy-outlook-severe-recession-but-not-a-depression?source=feed#comment-365857 365857 I'd say, anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's. The only thing we can be confident about with this type of guessing, is that it is just a reflection of CURRENT investor sentiment - sentiment that will change in an instant.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 16:11:17 -0500 I'd say, anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's. The only thing we can be confident about with this type of guessing, is that it is just a reflection of CURRENT investor sentiment - sentiment that will change in an instant.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116370-economy-in-crisis-three-bears-and-a-missing-goldilocks?source=feed#comment-365824 365824 Sun, 25 Jan 2009 15:36:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116370-economy-in-crisis-three-bears-and-a-missing-goldilocks?source=feed#comment-365822 365822 I'd suggest that the real problem was the lax credit policies, lack of true risk management in banks. The problem was not the preferences of the consumer to consume, but entirely with sub-optimizing banks.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 15:34:41 -0500 I'd suggest that the real problem was the lax credit policies, lack of true risk management in banks. The problem was not the preferences of the consumer to consume, but entirely with sub-optimizing banks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116306-an-end-to-the-era-of-declining-interest-rates?source=feed#comment-365801 365801 But what about the trend in REAL interest rates? I doubt that we have such a long decline in them, and certainly not such a dramatic picture. And, after all, it's the real interest rates that are more relevant for long-term investors.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 15:10:00 -0500 But what about the trend in REAL interest rates? I doubt that we have such a long decline in them, and certainly not such a dramatic picture. And, after all, it's the real interest rates that are more relevant for long-term investors.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116356-bond-yields-are-bouncing?source=feed#comment-365788 365788 It will be an interesting week with big treasury auctions. It might start to make the market concerned about the borrowing implications of the stimulus package. THere is some worry about foreign powers not being too interested in buying treasuries when
a. dollar is high and expected to drop, substantial currency risk
b. rates are so low, meaning substantial interest rate risk

On the other hand, maybe the FED will appear as a buyer at the auctions? Instant monetizing.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 14:58:14 -0500 It will be an interesting week with big treasury auctions. It might start to make the market concerned about the borrowing implications of the stimulus package. THere is some worry about foreign powers not being too interested in buying treasuries when
a. dollar is high and expected to drop, substantial currency risk
b. rates are so low, meaning substantial interest rate risk

On the other hand, maybe the FED will appear as a buyer at the auctions? Instant monetizing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116361-what-s-up-with-the-dollar-and-gold?source=feed#comment-365775 365775 When will the dollar drop? Maybe starts already this week, if the treasury auctions have some problems. Or maybe later, when we see a pickup in economic activity.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 14:43:06 -0500 When will the dollar drop? Maybe starts already this week, if the treasury auctions have some problems. Or maybe later, when we see a pickup in economic activity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116268-chart-of-the-week-trend-in-cash-holdings-beginning-to-shift?source=feed#comment-365529 365529 Maybe, but there are so many other places where the money can go too. From your chart, it seems like a long-term correlation exists. But it's hard to see any strong short-term correlation between stocks and MM funds. Also, the perceived change of trend can quickly be reversed come any bad news.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 10:43:37 -0500 Maybe, but there are so many other places where the money can go too. From your chart, it seems like a long-term correlation exists. But it's hard to see any strong short-term correlation between stocks and MM funds. Also, the perceived change of trend can quickly be reversed come any bad news.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116195-geithner-on-china-s-currency-manipulation?source=feed#comment-364965 364965 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 11:58:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116195-geithner-on-china-s-currency-manipulation?source=feed#comment-364963 364963 The logic is obvious: Geithner says what he says for the following reason: If the Chinese don’t cooperate and let the yuan devalue, a portion of any US stimulus is lost to higher imports. And Congress would be less than happy to see US tax dollars supporting CHINESE jobs.
China is badly export-dependent. Now they face faltering growth and domestic unrest as a result. They have enough unemployment and reserve capacity to increase exports.
]]> Sat, 24 Jan 2009 11:55:35 -0500 The logic is obvious: Geithner says what he says for the following reason: If the Chinese don’t cooperate and let the yuan devalue, a portion of any US stimulus is lost to higher imports. And Congress would be less than happy to see US tax dollars supporting CHINESE jobs.
China is badly export-dependent. Now they face faltering growth and domestic unrest as a result. They have enough unemployment and reserve capacity to increase exports.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116247-spot-the-three-currency-regimes?source=feed#comment-364950 364950 To be dancing so closely with China is to dance until death for the US of A. Scary stuff.]]> Sat, 24 Jan 2009 11:35:38 -0500 To be dancing so closely with China is to dance until death for the US of A. Scary stuff.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116115-let-s-just-say-it-print-more-money?source=feed#comment-363807 363807 That's the spirit! Bring it on! ... if it only were so easy...
Trouble is, that as well as inviduals can be classified as 'subprime' and default on their debt, so can nations.
]]> Fri, 23 Jan 2009 05:56:48 -0500 That's the spirit! Bring it on! ... if it only were so easy...
Trouble is, that as well as inviduals can be classified as 'subprime' and default on their debt, so can nations.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115802-seagate-technology-f2q09-qtr-end-1-2-09-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed#comment-363803 363803 I was surprised that there was no mentioning of that at all. The old products will not live for long. I hope Seagate will not lose their lead in density.]]> Fri, 23 Jan 2009 05:39:18 -0500 I was surprised that there was no mentioning of that at all. The old products will not live for long. I hope Seagate will not lose their lead in density.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116077-jeremy-siegel-stocks-for-the-short-term?source=feed#comment-363799 363799 Why? well, if you look at the stock market in total isolation, in a pure TA perspective, as is done here, you COULD come to such conclusions.
However, as is well known, the reason that we have this long-term trend, and mean reversion to it, is that the stock market is strongly linked to the development of the real economy, i.e. GDP growth. From that follows the growth in profit generation that drives the stock market.
Now, I think it is entirely premature to talk about any reversal as long as we have the situation we have in the real economy: Recession for maybe another year. Monetary politicy in completely uncharted waters. A banking system in ruins. Etc.

Hold your horses, it's too early for the recommended "bull put spreads on the SPY".]]> Fri, 23 Jan 2009 05:16:56 -0500 Why? well, if you look at the stock market in total isolation, in a pure TA perspective, as is done here, you COULD come to such conclusions.
However, as is well known, the reason that we have this long-term trend, and mean reversion to it, is that the stock market is strongly linked to the development of the real economy, i.e. GDP growth. From that follows the growth in profit generation that drives the stock market.
Now, I think it is entirely premature to talk about any reversal as long as we have the situation we have in the real economy: Recession for maybe another year. Monetary politicy in completely uncharted waters. A banking system in ruins. Etc.

Hold your horses, it's too early for the recommended "bull put spreads on the SPY".]]>