Hefaistos

Stocks Churning, Commodities and Currencies Burning

Why has the dollar again been strengthening in the latest time? Interest rates are zero, which gives really no incentive whatsoever to hold dollars. Apparently, we again see a flight to safety. Prospects are also lousy for the dollar, due to the stimulation packages due out, increasing the deficits in the balance of payments, increasing the risk of inflation. All of this should really bring the dollar down, instead we see the reverse. Supposedly we face another period of stress in the financial system, with redemptions, etc.

The Market's Making Me Nervous

Nice take. The one thing you don't mention, is the dollar, which is again strengthening in the latest time. This is a bit strange to me: Interest rates are zero, which gives really no incentive whatsoever to hold dollars. Apparently, we again see a flight to safety. Prospects are also lousy for the dollar, due to the stimulation packages due out, increasing the deficits in the balance of payments, increasing the risk of inflation. All of this should really bring the dollar down, instead we see the reverse. Supposedly we face another period of stress in the financial system, with redemptions, etc.

Why Spain's Economic Crisis Is More Than Just a Housing Slump

Thanks, excellent analysis.
One thing strikes me, you say "The monetary policy applied in Spain between 2002 and 2006 was thoroughly inappropriate." Do you then mean the ECB mon.policy? Spain illustrates the problem of asymmetric development in a common mon.policy. They have no degrees of freedom in terms of fiscal policy, and they can't get the stimulance from the monetary policy that they'd need.

Btw, I think you will lose that bet. People don't choose bars according to the price of coffee, but more for ambience and social factors, like having interesting guests involved in lively discussions around. As long as you and your fellas are around there, 1.15 might be cheap for that coffee.

If You Ever See a Chart Like This, Run Away Fast

Actually, growth rate is declining over the years. Probably the guy never understood that if you want to stick to constant growth and still be able to use your good old ruler, you need a logarithmic diagram...
Or maybe he just used a moving average cash smoothing algorithm, with heavy cleptokurtosis.

Zinc Falls Victim to Commodity Boom 2.0.

Good analysis.
Demand broke down, supply is scaled back.
What would the lead time be, for a demand-led turnaround in the metals market? Supposedly, we'd nedd to see some robust gdp growth data before your scenario with a rebound plays out.

Second Worst Month For Commodities Ever

Please draw long-term charts with log scale, you don't give a correct representation of data with a linear scale.

Mechel: Putin’s Remarks Create Opportunity for an Attractive Volatility Play

User 195759, your comment is spot on - these positions only work in the schoolbook. Maybe you can achieve something similar with warrants, though, they are more liquid.