Pax Americana's  Instablog

(FISV) celebrates its 25th Anniversary this year, it has made steady progress since its Acquisition of the reputable company "Checkfree" some time ago, and as recently as January, this  integration of the two company's , was said to be completed, although a further $250m dollars of cost/synergies are to be rolled out from now till 2011 . The company main priorities are 1. Complete Integration of the Checkfree acquisition.  2. Consistent eps, irrespective of the Macro/environment. 3. Improve the Defferenciation of the company's products and stategy. If we look at last year they suffered a $70m hit to their top line, and some (BAC) compression pricing squeeze, but overall still came in with free/cash flow of $611m dollars, up 38% over 07 figure and above target of $540m dollars. Compounding that good news , they also managed to sign up 550 new [bill/payment/clients] last year, in harsh Macro/environment. Moreover the integrated/sales figure came in at $86m, being 3 times the figure for 07, if the company had not endured such harsh headwinds,it would have posted growth of 7%.The company paid back $1.3b in debt, covering 08, and have a mandatory payment of $250m at close of the year 09, to facilitate their revolving/credit agreement, which terminates in 2011.The company services 16,000 clients, and has no great exposure to any one client, the stock is still exposed to hesd winds in Home/equity sector and Bank consolidation, but i believe this is a great stock that will grow incrementally over the next few years as the Economy improves and also paper free bill delivery has the high ground ,and will eventually prevail.

(ARNA) is the stock that is mainly centered on the success of a potential Obesity preventative drug ,called "Lorcaserin" apparently this drug is slightly in the lead as regards FDA approval , on account of its saftey record during ongoing trials. Will be reading through the Transcripts from about 4 qtrs back to get a feel for the way the company projects earning guidance and consistency of planning and execution. Obviously if (ARNA) were to eventually be [FDA] approved the profit and potential margins are substantial, and the company would probably recieve either a hostile bid from a larger pharmacological company or more likely a joint/venture with one of the majors, at present all the big fish are on the sidelines waiting and evaluating the perceived winners and losers, as 2/3 of the American populace are categorized as technically obese, we are talking huge profits for a "safe" drug with low or no adverse side effects. The other stock that I had been following, recently jumped $2 dollars from $16/$18 being dissapointing n the fact of "missing the boat" so to speak on that one! Still like (DOW) moving up now to more realistic valuation, $23 dollars last friday, have liked this stock ever since the (ROH) takeover , as one could extrapolate the potential synerygs and saving in the 3/4 qtrs and the change in companys internal dynamic.    

Turkey, the modern secular state has been Knocking on Europes door,for some two decades and more, and the concensus opinion is, twenty years more time will flow by, till full membership is benevolently doled out to this Eurocentric nation impaled betwix Europe and modernity and an racial and cultural pull off the near East.Since the severe contraction in the economy in 2000, and the ensuing financial/economic reforms brokered by the IMF, that turned the country around onto steady growth.todays goverment debt- ratio has been halfed since 2001, and the country has foreign reserves of $80b and a vastly more diversifed economy.
According to Deloittes recent report, even if turkey signs the IMF program it still may contract by some 6% percent, the report also laid emphasis on the need for structural reform while maintaining fiscal discipline, not an easy task to be sure.
Deloitte suggest a more normal rate of growth after 2010, may become apparent .
The young demographic, of this nation of 100m will be a factor in its long term wellbeing, if turkey can stave off the religious and cultural pressures of radicalism then the future may be rosy, especially with eventual adhesion to the EU.

Since 1917 the USA, has been rated AAA for its Bond issuance, so when [MCO] mooted the possibility of an American downgrade, this Indeed was a sea change in the perception of America as a safe Investment for Foreigners. I believe that China, and other major holders of our Debt are seeking ways to mitigate the risks involved. one way is to reweight from long term bonds into short term bonds, of which there is evidence that China is carrying out this policy "in the shadows" so to speak. Another such Symbolic moment, was the political pressure exerted by the PRC on the American Administration over the Fannie/Freddie fiasco. Whereby, the Administration caved in to pressure. These signs of growing PRC confidence in their ability to Influence Political and as we have seen recently with [RTP] commercial decisions in thier favor. Money is the Foundation, of all Power, be it political,Commercial, or Military and America may have tough choices to make soon, concerning matters Geopolitical , in the South China Sea, and Indian Ocean, at the present time Chinas Defense spending is growing exponentially year over year, and American Generals have intimated privately their concerns. As the Chinese have signaled their desire for a "blue navy" with Global reach, already pakistan has been assisted to construct a deep facility port, with the aid of PRC money, with the priviso of Chinese access for their Military.

So as can observe, America cannot be in all theatres,cuts have to made but where, this is the question for the next decade vis-vis spending?

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Since DOW transformational call back in december, and the subsequent failure of the K-DOW project . 2008 was indeed a year to remember for many reasons,huge ramp up in feedstock costs at the start of the year followed at the "end "by the largest drop in Operating-capacity ..44% in DOW corporate history. Even with all this Corporate carnage, one can percieve "slivers of light" and traction going forward. Numero Uno, the expected overall Synergys and Economies of Scale, are projected to be 1.5 billion dollars before 2010 ,and given DOW record in delvering synergs and costsaving from previous Aquisitions, they do have "creditbility". Therefore, making certain assumations, concerning DOW less cyclical eps numbers from thier high Performance chemical and Dow agrosciences and not forgetting Dow Water, we start to see a more high growth and Increased earning capacity gong forward.[DOW Agroscience revenues have grown for 11 consecutive qtrs]....by the way.As we look out 15 monthes we will see a Lean mean chemical machine that wll be well placed for 10% year over year growth and a stock price that will be reflective of the new Entity.

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