Here's the pessimistic view (and I'm long myself so I hate it):
Corporations and funds are deferring everything they can in order to defeat Obama in the next election. They calculate that giving up growth in the short term - over the next 6 months - will pay big if Romney wins and is able to pass a cash repatriation tax reduction or holiday, and lower the corporate tax rate in general.
Ultra-high net-worth individuals are doing likewise because they fear Obama will eliminate the reduced capital-gains tax rate of 15%.
Selling Apple or staying out of the stock is an easy way to bring down the entire NASDAQ average. The fear snowball has succeeded in motivating small investors to pull out of funds and ETFS which result in further selling of Apple since it is a large component of many funds and broad ETFs.
We would need to see multiple major catalysts to see an upswing in Apple stock at this point, like China Mobile deal + new Macs + new iPhone + iTV + Mountain Lion + Big Content Deal(s).
Apple doesn't care at all about their stock price so they won't push up any announcements or do anything like a buyback to support the stock.
The next announcements are likely to be at the Apple Developer conference and then after that earnings in July but basically nothing big enough to move the stock much until September/October.
Like I said, I'm long, so I hope that it works out differently. Maybe a content deal might come along... Apple can be surprisingly successful!
There's no clear trigger behind the latest selloff in Apple (AAPL -3.4%); shares are now down 9% from their Tuesday high. Some speculate Texas Instruments' (TXN) addition to the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is playing a role, as index funds will need to sell some Apple to rebalance, but that can't explain why fellow large-cap index members Microsoft (MSFT +0.9%) and Intel (INTC +1%) are up. With Apple still up 43% YTD, perhaps a breather was inevitable. [View news story]
The system has these drops that panick the small investors out at low prices and then the smart money can buy in cheaper, setting up the next surge. The experts have claimed that every new Applie device "is not selling" - if they're right for the first time, and there is a first time for everything, then I'm wrong, but if the pattern holds, then 620, 630, or 650+ are the possibilities for April-May.
I'm in May calls at 550 (for price-recovery) and 635 (speculative).
Apple Slingshot In Full Effect [View article]
We have them every 4 years. See the Constitution for details - it's on the flipside of the treasure map.
Apple Slingshot In Full Effect [View article]
Apple Slingshot In Full Effect [View article]
Apple Slingshot In Full Effect [View article]
Corporations and funds are deferring everything they can in order to defeat Obama in the next election. They calculate that giving up growth in the short term - over the next 6 months - will pay big if Romney wins and is able to pass a cash repatriation tax reduction or holiday, and lower the corporate tax rate in general.
Ultra-high net-worth individuals are doing likewise because they fear Obama will eliminate the reduced capital-gains tax rate of 15%.
Selling Apple or staying out of the stock is an easy way to bring down the entire NASDAQ average. The fear snowball has succeeded in motivating small investors to pull out of funds and ETFS which result in further selling of Apple since it is a large component of many funds and broad ETFs.
We would need to see multiple major catalysts to see an upswing in Apple stock at this point, like China Mobile deal + new Macs + new iPhone + iTV + Mountain Lion + Big Content Deal(s).
Apple doesn't care at all about their stock price so they won't push up any announcements or do anything like a buyback to support the stock.
The next announcements are likely to be at the Apple Developer conference and then after that earnings in July but basically nothing big enough to move the stock much until September/October.
Like I said, I'm long, so I hope that it works out differently. Maybe a content deal might come along... Apple can be surprisingly successful!
There's no clear trigger behind the latest selloff in Apple (AAPL -3.4%); shares are now down 9% from their Tuesday high. Some speculate Texas Instruments' (TXN) addition to the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is playing a role, as index funds will need to sell some Apple to rebalance, but that can't explain why fellow large-cap index members Microsoft (MSFT +0.9%) and Intel (INTC +1%) are up. With Apple still up 43% YTD, perhaps a breather was inevitable. [View news story]
I'm in May calls at 550 (for price-recovery) and 635 (speculative).