micheal, great article, great discussion. thx for all your hard work. this is what seeking alpha should be. jwaydog
a couple of questions:
is anyone aware of any proposed expansion of actual rail lines?
assuming the economy continues to improve and the railroad industry is operating at near full capacity, what higher margin shipping products could compete with the oil tanker railcars?
i am perplexed that pipeline projects from the bakken are not ongoing. even if they are only to railroad spurs.
Protective Covered Call For Continental Resources [View article]
Clr has 12,652 mbls in 2012 and 13,870 mbls in 2013 hedged via collers and swaps (see pg 86 of recent 10-k). Total 2011 oil production was 16,469 mbls (pg 17 of 10-k). The company increased oil production at a rate of 40% from 2010 to 2011. Assuming this same rate of increase, 2012 total oil production would be 23,056 mbls. So most likely at least 50% of 2012 is price protected. Simple analysis i know but i'm in a hurry. jwaydog
Chesapeake Energy: At Least 50% Upside Potential [View article]
before investing in chk one should ask him/herself one question "do i want to own a gas company (trying to get more oily) run by a financial magician with a penchant for cutting last minute deals or an oil company run by an old school oil man, whose company holds more acres in what may be the most important discovery in the history of the U.S. (bakken)?" unless u are carlos slim u do not have enough money to own both; so just own clr. get u some!
Identifying Large-Cap Bakken/Eagle Ford Growth Opportunities [View article]
hiddenval, I have no problem with ur new valuation metric and find it somewhat interesting. Keep in mind however that no two companies' cap ex expenditures yield the same results. The nature of drilling for oil can be a fickle business; thus effective allocation of cap ex is tantamount to success (ie g.w. bush specializing in dry holes in midland,tx vs harold hamms' ames hole).
How about stacking your measurement with a metric which relates trailing cap ex to actual increases in production?
Management is the key. Clr has been unmatched in effective allocation of cap ex. If there is an equal, i am unaware. Best regards, jwaydog
Identifying Large-Cap Bakken/Eagle Ford Growth Opportunities [View article]
Chuck, I agree that if u compare clr's multiples with the valuations of more traditional oil companies it would look expensive. But to do so is unfair to logic. Clr's 4th quarter yoy production recently grew by 57% to 75,219 boepd. Proved reserves were revised upward 39% to 508 million boe. I like and own up/downstream companies such as xom,cop and e/p companies such as apc. As u are most likely aware these companies perform much like utilities and tend to focus simply on replacing declining production. Clr is much different.
I believe sometimes it is hard for us, when we have owned a stock which has doubled or tripled, to believe it is still a bargain. The growth curve of clr (which does not look to level off anytime soon given oil prices remain relatively equal to current levels) makes the stock look less than fully valued to me.
One of the largest current risks has been the worry of a moratorium on hydralic fracturing which, in my opinion, is a low probability event. 508 million barrels of proved reserves right in the middle of USA?! 901,000 acres in the bakken?! Ya,I'll take some of that and so will one of the majors! Best regards, jwaydog
The Street Is High On Continental, Cabot And EOG [View article]
Chuck, I agree that if u compare clr's multiples with the valuations of more traditional oil companies it would look expensive. But to do so is unfair to logic. Clr's 4th quarter yoy production recently grew by 57% to 75,219 boepd. Proved reserves were revised upward 39% to 508 million boe. I like and own up/downstream companies such as xom,cop and e/p companies such as apc. As u are most likely aware these companies perform much like utilities and tend to focus simply on replacing declining production. I believe sometimes it is hard for us, when we have owned a stock which has doubled or tripled, to believe it is still a bargain. The growth curve of clr (which does not look to level off anytime soon given oil prices remain relatively equal to current levels) makes the stock look less than fully valued to me. One of the largest current risks has been the worry of a moratorium on hydralic fracking which, in my opinion, is a low probability event. 508 million barrels of proved reserves right in the middle of USA?! 901,000 acres in the bakken?! Ya,I'll take some of that and so will one of the majors! Best regards, jwaydog
The Street Is High On Continental, Cabot And EOG [View article]
clr is perhaps the most exciting, best run, domestic, publicly traded oil company in the world. u state: 'the region had an avg rate of 1.1k boepd in the third quarter'.?? better check that. wouldn't it be important to note clr yoy production increases and the change in proved reserves? harold hamm is the real deal. unless u believe oil is going to be much cheaper over the next few years clr is a bargain.
Bakken Crude: Buffett's Railroad Beats ONEOK's Pipeline [View article]
great article, great discussion. thx for all your hard work. this is what seeking alpha should be.
jwaydog
a couple of questions:
is anyone aware of any proposed expansion of actual rail lines?
assuming the economy continues to improve and the railroad industry is operating at near full capacity, what higher margin
shipping products could compete with the oil tanker railcars?
i am perplexed that pipeline projects from the bakken are not ongoing. even if they are only to railroad spurs.
Jim Cramer's 3 Strong Buy Recommendations [View article]
http://bloom.bg/Uh9IrL
p.s. aapl started paying the div last quarter. seems like the divinvestorgroup should be aware of this fact.
Intel Could Double By 2014 [View article]
well done. we need more of u!
jwaydog
Time To Take Profits In Clean Energy Fuels [View article]
Protective Covered Call For Continental Resources [View article]
jwaydog
Chesapeake Energy: At Least 50% Upside Potential [View article]
Chesapeake Energy: At Least 50% Upside Potential [View article]
Chesapeake Energy: At Least 50% Upside Potential [View article]
The Bakken Oil Field: Have The Edges Been Found? [View article]
Identifying Large-Cap Bakken/Eagle Ford Growth Opportunities [View article]
I have no problem with ur new valuation metric and find it somewhat interesting. Keep in mind however that no two companies' cap ex expenditures yield the same results. The nature of drilling for oil can be a fickle business; thus effective allocation of cap ex is tantamount to success (ie g.w. bush specializing in dry holes in midland,tx vs harold hamms' ames hole).
How about stacking your measurement with a metric which relates trailing cap ex to actual increases in production?
Management is the key. Clr has been unmatched in effective allocation of cap ex. If there is an equal, i am unaware.
Best regards,
jwaydog
Identifying Large-Cap Bakken/Eagle Ford Growth Opportunities [View article]
I agree that if u compare clr's multiples with the valuations of more traditional oil companies it would look expensive. But to do so is unfair to logic. Clr's 4th quarter yoy production recently grew by 57% to 75,219 boepd. Proved reserves were revised upward 39% to 508 million boe. I like and own up/downstream companies such as xom,cop and e/p companies such as apc. As u are most likely aware these companies perform much like utilities and tend to focus simply on replacing declining production. Clr is much different.
I believe sometimes it is hard for us, when we have owned a stock which has doubled or tripled, to believe it is still a bargain. The growth curve of clr (which does not look to level off anytime soon given oil prices remain relatively equal to current levels) makes the stock look less than fully valued to me.
One of the largest current risks has been the worry of a moratorium on hydralic fracturing which, in my opinion, is a low probability event.
508 million barrels of proved reserves right in the middle of USA?! 901,000 acres in the bakken?! Ya,I'll take some of that and so will one of the majors!
Best regards,
jwaydog
Apple: The Goldman Connection [View article]
Apple: The Goldman Connection [View article]
The Street Is High On Continental, Cabot And EOG [View article]
I agree that if u compare clr's multiples with the valuations of more traditional oil companies it would look expensive. But to do so is unfair to logic. Clr's 4th quarter yoy production recently grew by 57% to 75,219 boepd. Proved reserves were revised upward 39% to 508 million boe. I like and own up/downstream companies such as xom,cop and e/p companies such as apc. As u are most likely aware these companies perform much like utilities and tend to focus simply on replacing declining production.
I believe sometimes it is hard for us, when we have owned a stock which has doubled or tripled, to believe it is still a bargain. The growth curve of clr (which does not look to level off anytime soon given oil prices remain relatively equal to current levels) makes the stock look less than fully valued to me.
One of the largest current risks has been the worry of a moratorium on hydralic fracking which, in my opinion, is a low probability event.
508 million barrels of proved reserves right in the middle of USA?! 901,000 acres in the bakken?! Ya,I'll take some of that and so will one of the majors!
Best regards,
jwaydog
The Street Is High On Continental, Cabot And EOG [View article]