Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Tesla's Norway Deliveries Drop 47% In The Quarter  [View article]
    I think the author of the following article stole your points without citing the source:
    Jul 2, 2014. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Not To Write A Tesla Short Article  [View article]
    This article is very similar to the many short TSLA articles that you are criticizing in the title. The giga factory is still very much in the air. It has just been delayed, and no one has formally announced that they are partnering with TSLA. It is a big risk for any partner as the technology can change rapidly and the giga factory (if ever built) could be made obsolete. TSLA has also been burning through cash, and this latest debt offering (supposedly for the giga factory) has conveniently bought them more time. Let's see if they actually get the funding for one to be built before we start talking about it being the first of many.

    There is evidence that many markets (not counting Norway) have shown signs of demand peaking several quarters ago. Once the pent up demand is worked through, many markets are showing dramatic reductions in deliveries. Why else do you think TSLA is rapidly expanding into other markets, most recently in China? If demand was off the charts in America and Europe, wouldn't it make sense to handle that first, before taking on the many logistical challenges of expanding to other countries? I suspect that there are only so many people that want and can buy a $100k luxury electric car, and we are seeing that reflected in the delivery numbers. Now I believe the SUV will appeal to another group of buyers, and it will initially be a success, but again that will be limited. So where does this leave us? It leaves TSLA as a niche car company at an insanely high valuation. The only way this can change is if they develop a mass market car. Unfortunately the cheap gen 3 car is currently just a figment of Musk's imagination, and until the giga factory is built, and shows the necessary reduction in cost, it is silly to buy TSLA at this inasane valuation.

    Disclosure: (I'm currently short the $150/270 2015 strangle)
    Jun 22, 2014. 07:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Shakes Off More Worries  [View article]
    There are huge incentives in Norway for electrical cars, and huge taxes for normal luxury cars which gives the Model S a huge pricing advantage when compared to other high end luxury cars. Norway is also a very rich country, with oil wealth, and a per capita GDP of $100k. Tesla's success in Norway should not be extrapolated any further than that. It is an isolated situation.
    Apr 3, 2014. 01:08 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Somewhere In Europe, 100 Model S' Destroy A Myth  [View article]
    I've found your articles to be well reasoned and logical. Thx for posting. Try to ignore the haters.
    Mar 21, 2014. 01:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple  [View article]
    I think this article misses several major points that are crucial to evaluating Apple.

    1. While Apple may be losing market share, this is mainly due to ultra cheap "smartphones" flooding the emerging market. Apple is catering to the high end, where the margins are high, and the customers actually use their phones and spend money on apps. Their share of this profitable segment is growing, as evidenced by the success of the iPhone 5s.

    2. While google play may have way more overall downloads, Apple makes WAY more money on their App Store. This is because there are way more apps in the App Store and Apple's customers actually have the cash to buy apps. The same is not true for the majority of android customers.

    3. Apple iPhone customers plan on purchasing another iPhone 90% of the time, according to many surveys. So brand loyalty is incredibly high. Androids growth is mainly from people who are switching from a feature phone, and who can't afford an iPhone. Apple is consistently growing the amount of iPhones they sell each year, and they make enormous money from these iPhone customers. When/if they decide it is time to attack the low end, I wouldn't put my money on the cheap android phone manufacturers.
    Feb 9, 2014. 12:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 2 Events Pave The Way Closer To $500 Per Share  [View article]
    Saying the car doesn't depreciate is a very silly. Currently the car is supply constrained, so market price for the car is higher than MSRP. This phenomenon will be temporary. Once supply catches up to demand (I would bet within a couple quarters, but impossible to know for sure), the reality that the car relies on an extremely expensive battery (over 50% of the cost of the car), that will need to be replaced in 50,000-60,000 miles will begin to weigh heavily on re-sale values. Have you heard of the term "Irrational Exuberance"? I suggest you look it up..
    Feb 9, 2014. 11:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Pushes Closer To The Edge  [View article]
    Great article Bill. Some good new insight. Thx.
    Feb 5, 2014. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is SolarCity Overpriced?  [View article]
    Saying that this article is short on substance is a big under statement. No discussion of valuation. No discussion of cash flow issues. No discussion of eroding margins.
    Jan 29, 2014. 12:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We May Have Underestimated Tesla And Its 20-30% Potential Upside, What's Next For The Market  [View article]
    I don't think this is as obvious as you imply. Investing in a huge lithium ion battery facility that will effectively double the worldwide manufacturing capacity is a very big risk, due to potential technological advances. A new factory could cost $10-20 Billion dollars, and could be made obsolete in a few years due to new technology. I'm not convinced that Panasonic is going to be interested in taking the majority of the risk on something like that. If they can't find a major partner, then they are going to need to dilute shareholder value substantially to cover it.
    Jan 15, 2014. 12:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  •'s Upcoming Earnings Disaster: 5 Reasons To Be Bearish  [View article]
    I just wanted to send a quick thank you. I read this article yesterday, it made a lot of sense. I decided holding my option spread on YOKU wasn't worth the risk, and I closed it out today. Much appreciated.
    Feb 28, 2013. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Falling Share Price And The Market's Implicit Growth Implications  [View article]
    "With the above assumptions and our growth versus price model, Apple should trade between $420-$720."


    If I say that Apple will trade between $1 and $1,000 next year do I get to write a seeking alpha article also?

    What a joke.
    Dec 12, 2012. 05:54 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $1000: Why It's Time To Buy  [View article]
    Thanks for the well thought out article. It really stands out compared to the flood of uninformed and downright ignorant bearish articles I have been reading lately. Keep it up!
    Oct 16, 2012. 02:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Growth at a High Price  [View article]
    Who do you think will get this exclusive content? NFLX or one of their many powerful competitors?

    NFLX with $376 Million in total cash


    AMZN - with $7.6 Billion in total cash
    WMT - with $9.4 Billion in total cash
    DISH - with $3.41 Billion in total cash

    AAPL - with $28 Billion in total cash (Haven't announced a subscription service yet, but it is rumored they are preparing it right now)

    I also find is comical that you think it isn't a buy right now based on its PE ratio, but it may be a buy under $237.50. I really hope no one takes this article seriously and invests based on this terrible advice.
    Aug 12, 2011. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turnaround Tuesday: Waiting for the Fed  [View article]
    I think you meant 10,950 on the Dow.

    Aug 11, 2011. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Why the Truth Probably Will Not Surface Anytime Soon  [View article]
    Rocco care to comment on the CBS/Amazon news today?
    Jul 20, 2011. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment