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  • Friday's Fiscal Fantasy Camp  [View article]
    My gut says Sell, Sell, Sell. And my brain says Buy, Buy, Buy. After all, everything is negative- isn't that when you're supposed to buy stocks? And sell them when everything is positive?

    So I'm mosty Flat, Flat, Flat. With some quickie guerilla strikes here and there. Feels safest.
    Aug 3, 2012. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks ended another quiet session with modest losses, as investors are reluctant to take or change a big position ahead of tomorrow's Fed policy decision and Thursday's ECB meeting - even though few expect any Fed action just yet, and Europe has long lumbered from crisis to crisis. Crude oil slid 1.9%; 10-year Treasury yields fell to 1.488%. NYSE losers led winners three to two.   [View news story]
    Anyone else have the feeling that the next 2-3 days will be a major inflection point for the market? Check out the Baltic Dry Index, believed by many to be one of the best indicators of the global economy:

    Jul 31, 2012. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks (SBUX -11.7%) continues to get roasted after missing FQ3 estimates, guiding FQ4 and FY13 forecasts lower, and making downbeat comments on its earnings call about U.S. traffic (slowdown in June), EMEA demand (flat same-store sales), and K-Cup margins. Baird is downgrading Starbucks to Neutral, but Deutsche thinks accelerating unit growth, ongoing same-store sales growth, and lower commodity prices spell a buying opportunity. GMCR -1.3%. DNKN -1.3%. JVA -1.8%.   [View news story]
    I'm glad that you are evidently enjoying a privileged life. You are increasingly in the minority as the middle class in this country is getting slaughtered.

    I like Starbucks but SBUX not so much. Going to be tough sledding ahead for premium middle class products.
    Jul 28, 2012. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks posted back-to-back rallies, with the Dow pushing past 13,000, after reports that ECB chief Mario Draghi would hold talks with the Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann. Earnings have been mixed at best, but bullishness on European progress has overwhelmed them. Crude oil climbed again; 10-year Treasury yields bounced to 1.55%. NYSE winners led losers three to one.   [View news story]
    Short covering. And all paths lead back to GS. This is the most manipulated stock market I have seen in over 30 years of investing and trading. Love it.
    Jul 28, 2012. 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN): Q2 EPS of $0.01 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $12.83B (+29% Y/Y) misses by $60M. Sees Q3 revenue of $12.8-$14.3B vs. consensus of $14.1B. Shares -7.3% AH. (PR)   [View news story]
    Shorting Amazon is like trying to swim up the river. Sounds like a good idea until you're actually in the water. :)
    Jul 26, 2012. 07:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Investors celebrated greater European resolve to shore up the eurozone, driving stocks higher and Treasury prices lower. The spark came from ECB's Mario Draghi, who said the ECB is ready to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro, causing the currency to soar. Energy stocks led the charge, even as oil prices rose only modestly. NYSE gainers led losers two to one.   [View news story]
    Is it possible that there could be a coordinated U.S./Euro QE brewing?
    Jul 26, 2012. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Don't Lose That Magic  [View article]
    " A creative visionary does not lose sleep over these vague human concepts."

    I love that line!

    Interesting article, thank you.
    Jul 25, 2012. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Share Valuation: The Next Brick To Fall?  [View article]
    AAPL's miss will amplify the consequences if AMZN even hints at a disappointment in earnings on Thursday. I don't normally play earnings calls as that's too much gambling for me. But there's opportunity on the short side here at some point.

    It's happened before. AMZN was 80 before the dot com bubble burst in Spring 2000. I had just sold a dot com company (blind dog found a bone on that one) and my wife loved AMZN and wanted to buy some. I told her we would buy it when it got to 8. It did - and we did.

    The street is so in love with the company that the stock appears to have gotten a little bit ahead of itself. And who is left to buy it?

    Very well done article - thank you very much.
    Jul 25, 2012. 12:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ3 EPS of $9.32 misses by $1.04. Revenue of $35B (+22% Y/Y) misses by $2.5B. 26M iPhones sold, 17M iPads, 4M Macs. Shares -5.5% AH. (PR).   [View news story]
    So was I.
    Jul 24, 2012. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday, July 24, 2012 - Short Term Update - Stocks Breakdown   [View instapost]
    Good analysis - thank you.
    Jul 24, 2012. 08:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Amazon Before Earnings  [View article]
    I'm just long puts. We shall see.
    Jul 24, 2012. 08:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet  [View article]
    So is Apple actually a cyclical company? The main takeaway I have here is the macro-economic implications. When folks are rioting in the streets over their economic plight they're probably not buying stuff.

    The overall market is way oversold - but this one is going to be at least a drag or sometime. Next - AMZN.
    Jul 24, 2012. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet  [View article]
    AAPL has reserves set aside in case they ever decide to repatriate the offshore cash. In the meantime they're lobbying Washington hard to reduce the taxes on such an event.
    Jul 24, 2012. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When This Indicator Hits 19, Stocks Always Rally  [View article]
    Explain the move to bonds.
    Jul 24, 2012. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Bearish? Think About Being More Active About It  [View article]
    Thanks for the article. This looks interesting. I like the concept of HDGE - and I like using their portfolio list as a short idea source.
    Jul 24, 2012. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment