MouseType

Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S.

<i>Emerging economies don't matter.</i>

I'd be interested to know how you've come to such a conclusion. The trading of 5% of the US's consumption for all of China's consumption growth doesn't prove your point.

Have you read any of Tom Whipple's assessments of how China's price caps are affecting the diesel market? I assume you're aware of how tight that market is, given that it's at about $4.50 per gallon here in the States? Where would you cut 5% of our diesel consumption? Trucks? Trains? Construction equipment? Emergency vehicles? Garbage trucks?

I also agree with Ship Shape that denying peak oil is irrational, and I will raise the ante by calling it an observable fact rather than a theory. Only as soon as it can be proved that (continental 48) US oil production did not fall from a high of just over 8.4 million barrels per day in 1970 to about 3.1 mbpd in 2001, can we discuss emotional dependancies. Domestic US production is in decline. Observable fact. Global production has been more or less flat since 2005. Observable fact.

Anyone is certainly free to maintain that fundamentals don't support current prices for oil for as long as they like, but long-term trends indicate otherwise.