Seeking Alpha

beanboy62

beanboy62
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View beanboy62's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Sirius XM Poised to Succeed in Quest for Regained Compliance [View article]
    A tender offer by liberty for seri buys out the common shares. IMO if seri is between .88 cts and 1.25$ when it happens , the tender offer will be for less than $1.65.Does anyone holdin seri common want their shares to be taken away for that price? I personally might rtakea little money off the table at $1.25, but Id rather hold the rest for 5 years. 5 years = 7 -to$12.00.
    Apr 11 10:51 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Sirius XM Keep Converting Trial Subscribers Into Customers? [View article]
    Lets face it,everything he says is possible.
    Mar 8 08:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Should Liberty Offer For Sirius XM? [View article]
    I would rather se siri xm remain as a stand alone company but liberty will prevail.

    I am considering the holding my shares thru the conversion ,just
    to avoid the tax event of selling my Seri now. I have huge unrealized capitol gains in Siri The income tax will destroy 50% of my gains if I sold all my shares now. BUT! I feel the new non voting class c share of about $50.00 per share will go down after conversion and be slow to recover.The exchange rate of .076 equals a little over 13 shares of siri for one share of the new liberty stock. That is the equivalent of a 1 for 13 reverse split. of siri xm stock upon conversion. The leverage is gone and the new issue will be in a dead zone-appreciation wise JMHO
    Jan 8 08:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Makes Unacceptable Offer For Sirius [View article]
    I have already put a sell order infor my siri shares in my IRA.
    as the gains woill not trigger a taxable event .

    However I hold a lot more of seri in a taxable trading account and the sale of those will cause a huge taxable event for me as for many others. I don't believe a tax free conversion to the new class of non voting liberty stock would work out favorably so I may have to sell and just pay the taxes on my huge gains. I had planned to keep seri for as long as I could as a retirement asset just selling some each year but Ill probably sell all and just pay the tax . I don't want to trade every 1000 shares of my SIRI for 76 shares of the new liberty shares and then see them perform very poorly. I think there is no chance that liberty will be blocked from acquiring 100 percent of seri . Mal;one will get all of SIRI assets plus the NOL's.

    IN the word of Don Corelone in the film Godfather , "One lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than 100 men with guns"
    Jan 6 08:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Scorecard [View article]
    About Agero
    With over 40 years of experience, Agero is the leading provider of vehicle and driver safety and security services, including roadside assistance, consumer affairs and claims management services. The company serves over 75 million vehicle owners in partnership with leading automobile manufacturers, insurance carriers and others. Managing a network of over 30,000 service providers responding to more than 12 million requests annually for emergency assistance, Agero leverages advances in technology and information services to accelerate and enhance response to drivers' needs while strengthening customer loyalty. Agero, a member company of The Cross Country Group, is headquartered in Medford, Mass., with operations throughout North America. To learn more, visit http://www.agero.com.
    Dec 27 09:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: New Buying Opportunities On The Way? [View article]
    You said in your conclusion:


    " I will wait to see how the market reacts to earnings and if there is any definitive news of a buyout."


    I dont know how you could be knowlegable about Siri and say that.

    Buy out by who?? There is only the question of timing in the libertty -take control and reverse morris trust. Libertty wiill do all this with a aprox 50 +% of the common . IMO no one -(company) - -s going to buy out the remaining oustanding shareswith a tender offer.
    Oct 29 03:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Investors: New 45.2% Liberty Stake Is Good News [View article]
    Man you are all over the place with your statements It seems that you collect facts but can't put them together well enough to form a opinion. RE:

    That could mean good news for Sirius stockholders because values should go up as Malone tries to take control. Another added benefit to this battle could be that Sirius current management team, led by Mel Karmazin, will start buying up stock in an attempt to block Malone. This does not seem likely because Mr. Karmazin recently sold $22 million worth of Sirius stock.;;

    Ill clue you "Malone is trying to get control and the stock has gone down.!! " Mel and the management team are all selling, so why do you even mention that they could start buying in a strategic move to block Malone.There is no redeeming value to also saying that that was unlikely because saying they could or might start buying was ridiculous.
    Reminds me of someone predicting the next day market by saying it will either go up or go down or not change.


    The question on Sirius holder now is do I stay long or do I bail. The answer to thast depends on the details of the reverse Morris trust. in that scenario what company will be the SERVIVING ENTITY?
    Siri is the target company and the targets' management usually stays in control of day to day management even though they are the minority company. What subsidiary of liberty media will likely be coupled with siri in the morris.reverse merger. Will the seri ticker remain . ? These questions are of the upmost importance to holders of the Siri common.
    When Liberty gets all the planned buying done will the siri pps be allowed to rise on its own merit. and not be held back on the locked in $2.15 that liberty got in place? I was disapointed that you had no opinions on these questions.
    May 14 05:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding The ATP Oil And Gas Roller Coaster [View article]
    Pasted below in relevant part ,is a statement from the article I find confusing..


    . ATP expects that ultimately the reserves recovered here will be 90% of what was originally expected. 1,000 boe/day versus expectations of 7,000 boe/day.

    Seems like some crazy math here.--
    the only resonable explanation I can assume is that
    the well is a slow producer yeilding at a rate of 1/7th of projections and the size of reserves is not deminished in purportion to the flow
    The flow and the reserve do not work together. Im thinking ok the oil is still there and the Boe can be improved with new extraction techniques. I'm going to average down..
    Nov 19 07:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Takes On $400 Million Of New 5.25% Debt [View article]
    RE;
    With FCF building at Sirius XM, and with enough cash on hand and cash coming into the company to meet the 9.75% and 13% debt,investors should be asking "Why is the company going to the credit markets at this time?" Is it just possible that Sirius XM is close to initiating a share buyback that would put Liberty in control? Stranger things have happened

    The company states that it will:

    use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which may include, from time to time and as market conditions warrant,

    I believe that its simply because the $400 million of new debt Senior Notes will carry a 5.25% coupon and will be due in 2022. new interest rate Roughly 1/2 to 1/3 the existing debt rates and a due date over 7 years further Its just good business to do this and keep cash on hand high.

    I do not believe a stock buy back would come under "GENERAL CORPORATE PURPOSES"


    Your question of " Is it just possible that Sirius XM is close to initiating a share buyback that would put Liberty in control? " is rhetorical, imo

    My real question to anyone is why would SIRI do a buyback that immediately give liberty control. Would this be a grand gesture in exchange for something SIRI wants from Liberty that would be in the best interest of the share holder? Malone wont pay a premium so what else ?? It has to be something that goes right to the bottom line and makes the siri pps go up.
    Aug 9 07:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Sirius' Use Of Cash [View article]
    IMO the author stated the best use when he wrote:

    calling the $257 million 9.75% Senior Secured Notes due 2015. These can be called in September at 104 7/8 and it certainly makes sense to do so (calling before maturity provides a net savings of more than $60 million). This still would leave the company with $1.2 billion at year end.

    What more important in my opinion is to take a stock buyback off the table because Liberty's option to convert preferred to x amount of Sirius common would not change. Liberty's % of company would increase to 51% without spending one red cent.
    Yet Mel has maintained a buy back to be on the short list of choices. Someone needs to explain what redeeming factors in a buyback keep the buy back plan as a major possibility.
    Apr 23 07:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Developing Special Situation in SIRI [View article]
    YOu said :"To some degree, the outcome of this situation resembles a biotech pharma with a big drug trial result pending or an FDA decision or some such. It should have a large influence on the stock's price, even for quick pop up or down. I would even question whether SIRI will stay out of a restructuring (where they may wipe out the common stock and reorganize debt), if they fail to re-sign Stern.


    Please explain how the SIRI Siri could Arbitrarily restructure debt.by wiping out the common shares without filing for bankruptsy. I do not believe they have that option. Are you saying that if Stern does not re- up with Siri that the negative impact would be so great as to make seri file fo BK.??
    Sep 10 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius' Future Looks More Promising Than Ever [View article]
    Brandon wrote In regard to vthe R/S
    The pain of this has already been realized, and it's time to begin looking ahead to the future of SIRI, which may have never, since its creation, looked better from an investment standpoint.

    I could not dissagree more :
    The R/s pain will only begin if and when the R/S happens. Siri common PPS has the ability and potential to rise to $1.00 or more by oct 2009. If Sirixm R/S happens It will reduce a siri holders position by 98%. With that kind of loss in leverage the remaining 2% would have to rise to astronomical levels that are virtuallt impossible in this generation . If your average pps is $1.00 to $4.00.. After the R/s Your remaining 2% will get shorted again. The effect of a R/s will be just like BK for the holders of the common. he value of the a pre R/S siri position will be whiped out. Even if you are in with a average of .12cents you will lose money for a couple years even if Siri does ok post R?S

    As for the R/S getting rid of short sellers

    After the R/S Siri will have 360 million outstanding and that is more than enough to keep the short sellers in this stock . before delisting.Mel karmizan said on more than one occasion that the only reason to R/S would be to avoid delisting. The Key here is to get the refinacing done and get back those shares that were lent out to short.. Siri should do a debt for equity swap with those shares . The Sec extended the delist and weshould take full advantager of that. This is just my opinion.
    Jan 2 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media Offer For Sirius XM Is A 'Ratio' [View article]
    correction: I made a typo error in the last sentence of my previous post --one too many zero's in my figure of 1000...

    pasted here with error corrected in relevant part:

    It would take13.157 shares of siri @3.68 for every new stock of $48.42

    for every 1000 shrs of seri@ 3.68 you would get 76 shares of new liberty stock @$ 48.42
    Jan 7 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Good News For Sirius XM [View article]
    SIDSR: bought the stock at $4 so until it goes over 4 BLA BLA BLA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I also bought siri @$4-- 10 k before the crash to .05cts I did not sell so the loss was a paper loss. I started buying more @.19cts and accumulated almost 200k at average of .56cts

    Im holding all these shares long but yesterday I bought 10 k @$2.73 to play this short squeeze. I believe there is very little downside risk. I took the money from a cd that I refused to roll over for a interest rate of 0.08%. the bank guy wanted me to buy a annuity for 1.23%interest if I locked it up for five years. So that was pretty much dead money.
    Dec 13 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutions Up Their Stake In Sirius XM To 52% [View article]
    What Am I missing?
    This seems like crazy math

    net quantity of shares bought or sold. Q2 2012 saw a net influx of institutional buying to 52% of all outstanding common shares, over and above the previous value of 50%.

    So if institutions own 52% and Libertty owns 48% of all outstanding common shares thats 100% --what about the percentage owned by retail buyers?

    Also will this make it harder for Liberty to get over 50% ?
    Aug 16 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
54 Comments
54 Likes