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  • What Transocean's Investors Should Expect [View article]
    The offshore drilling industry is in a world of hurt right now, and it looks to continue for some time. There is excess capacity, with more coming as rigs roll off contract, and a dearth of future work. While cost cutting is important, it doesn't cope with lack of revenue. With the excess capacity, and probable bankruptcies, mergers, and consolidation in the industry, day rates for the apparently few tenders out there will be extremely competitive. Until the majors and NOCs regain enough confidence to budget capital expenditures for offshore drilling, the prospects for any driller will remain bleak.
    Nov 2, 2015. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It The Right Time To Invest In Coal Companies? [View article]
    Teck's coal sales are predominantly metallurgical coal for steel manufacture; poor comparison
    Oct 27, 2015. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp: Announced That It Will Cut The Dividend By 60% To 0.15 Per Quarter. [View article]
    with all due respect to the opinions offered, there is so much excess capacity in the drillers, offshore and onshore, and with more deliveries on the way, that I would suggest that very few companies will be buying other drillers until they are certain that the purchased assets will be utilised.
    Also, perhaps someone else can help here, but I would imagine that drilling contracts may be similar to construction contacts, where a receivership or bankruptcy gives the purchasing party the right to determine (terminate) the contract without penalty.
    Unfortunately, in the current drilling environment, I see more lawyers and fewer drillers being involved.
    Oct 24, 2015. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assets Matter - The Speculative Case For Penn West [View article]
    Interesting that todays bid by SU for COS values the stake at $43,000 per flowing barrel, same as MB's mention on PWT, which indicates some validation of the number. interesting speculation !
    Oct 5, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Seadrill Can Get Better [View article]
    to Alpha,
    "the company's revenue visibility is strong going forward."
    True till towards the end of 2016. Then it becomes distinctly murky with contracts rolling off, and newbuilds arriving(unless delayed again, or ? )
    Drilling companies' wellbeing are dependent on a decent level of drilling activity. That won't happen until AFTER the price of oil has risen to the point, and for long enough, that the majors have the confidence to re-enter into offshore drilling commitments. And I suspect that may be after Seadrill's, and the other OSD's, backlog has shrunk even further.
    Sep 16, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: When Is The Next Upcycle Coming? [View article]
    first I apologise for the word jumbling in my previous reply. I was merely trying to clarify what you had previously wrote. Syncrude does not sell bitumen per se, it sells upgraded synthetic crude. Yesterdays posted price ( psac/firstenergy) was C$ 59.50. Presumably there are some transportation costs which may reduce what they actually receive. I make no attempt to suggest that COS is not in a world of hurt at current pricing~~as you correctly point out, their current costs exceed breakeven. Other producers do sell bitumen, as Western Canada Select (WCS). That price for comparison yesterday was C$ 41.53.
    However, in your previous post, you had referred to WCS/ syncrude, and that prompted me to offer a clarification. Syncrude is the operating facility; they produce synthetic crude. Canadian Oil Sands (COS ) owns some 37% of Syncrude along with I believe six other entities. And most people now refer to the industry as "Oil Sands". "Tar sands" is now considered somewhat pejorative terminology.
    Sep 13, 2015. 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Consider On The Drop [View article]
    to the author
    your article on PXD "Avoid" because it has dropped 40%
    this on CLNE " buying opportunity" because it has dropped 40%

    CLNE has made major investments in LNG facilities. Most if not all of the increased usage is coming from CNG, which is a very competitive low margin commodity type business. Anyone with a gas line and 110 volts can (slow) fill a truck. CLNE is still losing money, and it looks as though that will continue.
    Sep 12, 2015. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pioneer Natural Resources - Avoid This Stock [View article]
    to the author;
    your comment re derivatives losses in the last quarter.
    Are not hedges required to be marked to market at quarter end ? Do not these losses offset a reported gain in the previous quarter?
    While it wouldn't help your case, perhaps some of the metrics you could show are per share numbers for barrels of reserves, and resources, and perhaps something regarding land holdings.
    When you say "avoid" do you mean for now, or for ever ?
    And as Crossroads said, why select PXD over most of the rest of the industry ?
    Sep 12, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: When Is The Next Upcycle Coming? [View article]
    to clarify; Syncrude, of which COS owns ±37%, and Suncor's surface operation, both operate cokers to upgrade the bitumen to "synthetic crude" SCO which is in good demand, and yesterday sold at WTI - 29 cents. Bitumen produced by other operations, and usually mixed with and several Gulf area ones. Price yesterday was WTI - $15 ±. diluent, is Western Canada Select WCS. It also is in good demand at the right price, from refineries equipped to process it, notably BP's Whiting, and some Gulf area units.
    As an aside, a month or two ago, there was an SA article on refinery performance, and those handling WCS and other heavy oils had higher crack spreads ( $ 10 ? ) compared with other feedstock.
    Sep 12, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continue To Avoid Enbridge [View article]
    you indicate a 21% price drop on ENB (NYSE). Enbridge is a Canadian company; did you consider that the drop in the Canadian/ U.S. dollar exchange rate might account for a portion of this decrease ?
    Sep 11, 2015. 10:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill - Avoid This Stock [View article]
    a remarkably thin commentary with no new information.
    Sep 9, 2015. 11:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: When Is The Next Upcycle Coming? [View article]
    point taken~~rephrased, offshore drillers are dependent on offshore drilling activity. I agree that actual drilling is only part of the process in 'exploration and development activities'.
    Sep 9, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: When Is The Next Upcycle Coming? [View article]
    great article and comments. Off shore drillers are dependent on offshore exploration and development activities, not just the price of oil. My thoughts are that even if and when the price of oil goes back up, it will take quite some time before offshore activity increases again. And when that will be is the big question. It could be well too late for some.
    Sep 9, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: At What Price Is That Dividend In Danger? [View article]
    you don't say (or I didn't see) what their daily production is, but assuming it's ± a million barrels or so, why don't they use their good balance sheet to buy (commit to) a couple of years production at current prices on the futures market; then shut down production, give their employees a holiday, let global supply demand correct to a decent level i.e.price, cash in the futures, give the shareholders a big dividend and then go back to work. Or is that too simple ? After all, it's really just the reverse of what the Saudis are doing.
    Sep 5, 2015. 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Offers A Blueprint For Pacific Drilling's Bank Facility Covenant Relief [View article]
    your last sentence~~~'eventual'~... the end, especially after a long delay, dispute, or series of problems"
    agreed, but when? It may be longer than we, or PACD, are thinking or hoping for. Or not.
    Aug 30, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment