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  • Assets Matter - The Speculative Case For Penn West [View article]
    Interesting that todays bid by SU for COS values the stake at $43,000 per flowing barrel, same as MB's mention on PWT, which indicates some validation of the number. interesting speculation !
    Oct 5, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Seadrill Can Get Better [View article]
    to Alpha,
    "the company's revenue visibility is strong going forward."
    True till towards the end of 2016. Then it becomes distinctly murky with contracts rolling off, and newbuilds arriving(unless delayed again, or ? )
    Drilling companies' wellbeing are dependent on a decent level of drilling activity. That won't happen until AFTER the price of oil has risen to the point, and for long enough, that the majors have the confidence to re-enter into offshore drilling commitments. And I suspect that may be after Seadrill's, and the other OSD's, backlog has shrunk even further.
    Sep 16, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: When Is The Next Upcycle Coming? [View article]
    first I apologise for the word jumbling in my previous reply. I was merely trying to clarify what you had previously wrote. Syncrude does not sell bitumen per se, it sells upgraded synthetic crude. Yesterdays posted price ( psac/firstenergy) was C$ 59.50. Presumably there are some transportation costs which may reduce what they actually receive. I make no attempt to suggest that COS is not in a world of hurt at current pricing~~as you correctly point out, their current costs exceed breakeven. Other producers do sell bitumen, as Western Canada Select (WCS). That price for comparison yesterday was C$ 41.53.
    However, in your previous post, you had referred to WCS/ syncrude, and that prompted me to offer a clarification. Syncrude is the operating facility; they produce synthetic crude. Canadian Oil Sands (COS ) owns some 37% of Syncrude along with I believe six other entities. And most people now refer to the industry as "Oil Sands". "Tar sands" is now considered somewhat pejorative terminology.
    Sep 13, 2015. 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Consider On The Drop [View article]
    to the author
    your article on PXD "Avoid" because it has dropped 40%
    this on CLNE " buying opportunity" because it has dropped 40%

    CLNE has made major investments in LNG facilities. Most if not all of the increased usage is coming from CNG, which is a very competitive low margin commodity type business. Anyone with a gas line and 110 volts can (slow) fill a truck. CLNE is still losing money, and it looks as though that will continue.
    Sep 12, 2015. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pioneer Natural Resources - Avoid This Stock [View article]
    to the author;
    your comment re derivatives losses in the last quarter.
    Are not hedges required to be marked to market at quarter end ? Do not these losses offset a reported gain in the previous quarter?
    While it wouldn't help your case, perhaps some of the metrics you could show are per share numbers for barrels of reserves, and resources, and perhaps something regarding land holdings.
    When you say "avoid" do you mean for now, or for ever ?
    And as Crossroads said, why select PXD over most of the rest of the industry ?
    Sep 12, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: When Is The Next Upcycle Coming? [View article]
    to clarify; Syncrude, of which COS owns ±37%, and Suncor's surface operation, both operate cokers to upgrade the bitumen to "synthetic crude" SCO which is in good demand, and yesterday sold at WTI - 29 cents. Bitumen produced by other operations, and usually mixed with and several Gulf area ones. Price yesterday was WTI - $15 ±. diluent, is Western Canada Select WCS. It also is in good demand at the right price, from refineries equipped to process it, notably BP's Whiting, and some Gulf area units.
    As an aside, a month or two ago, there was an SA article on refinery performance, and those handling WCS and other heavy oils had higher crack spreads ( $ 10 ? ) compared with other feedstock.
    Sep 12, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continue To Avoid Enbridge [View article]
    you indicate a 21% price drop on ENB (NYSE). Enbridge is a Canadian company; did you consider that the drop in the Canadian/ U.S. dollar exchange rate might account for a portion of this decrease ?
    Sep 11, 2015. 10:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill - Avoid This Stock [View article]
    a remarkably thin commentary with no new information.
    Sep 9, 2015. 11:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: When Is The Next Upcycle Coming? [View article]
    point taken~~rephrased, offshore drillers are dependent on offshore drilling activity. I agree that actual drilling is only part of the process in 'exploration and development activities'.
    Sep 9, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: When Is The Next Upcycle Coming? [View article]
    great article and comments. Off shore drillers are dependent on offshore exploration and development activities, not just the price of oil. My thoughts are that even if and when the price of oil goes back up, it will take quite some time before offshore activity increases again. And when that will be is the big question. It could be well too late for some.
    Sep 9, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: At What Price Is That Dividend In Danger? [View article]
    you don't say (or I didn't see) what their daily production is, but assuming it's ± a million barrels or so, why don't they use their good balance sheet to buy (commit to) a couple of years production at current prices on the futures market; then shut down production, give their employees a holiday, let global supply demand correct to a decent level i.e.price, cash in the futures, give the shareholders a big dividend and then go back to work. Or is that too simple ? After all, it's really just the reverse of what the Saudis are doing.
    Sep 5, 2015. 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Offers A Blueprint For Pacific Drilling's Bank Facility Covenant Relief [View article]
    your last sentence~~~'eventual'~... the end, especially after a long delay, dispute, or series of problems"
    agreed, but when? It may be longer than we, or PACD, are thinking or hoping for. Or not.
    Aug 30, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Defensive Investing In The Offshore Oil Industry [View article]
    interesting~~with cash of approx. $3.9B, assets±$25B, LTdebt±$10B, not only would RIG have to burn through the cash, but with the cushion of 363 million shares times $13 or about $6B , business would have to pretty bad for quite a while before the bonds would lose their asset coverage.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is National Oilwell Varco's Dividend At Risk? [View article]
    I would have liked to have seen a discussion re NOVs cash ($2.5B), LT debt($4.15B) and total assets ($31.2B) (all June 2015 numbers)with respect to their market cap of $14B. That might give some context to your thesis that the dividend is probably OK for some time, even though revenues and income will probably be challenged.
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree's Turnaround Offers Hope For Investors [View article]
    And, also at Home Depot, why the Phillips LED bulbs were about half the price of the CREE. I had previously bought several CREE and am happy with them; I am also happy with the Phillips.
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment