QuasiYoda

3 Reasons Not to Believe In Gold's Recent Rally

On Nov 11 12:29 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> xfi Paul Tudor Jones nicely summed up the fundamental argument in
> favor of gold in his recent letter to investors. The yellow metal
> is accumulated, and not consumed, and is the ultimate store of value.


Which, Ironically enough, is why one should buy Silver as it is consumed. While the supply of gold gradually rises year after year, the supply of Silver has been consistantly falling decade after decade as end users discard it in fractional amounts in a ubiquitous array of Products. In the End the Silver Gold ratio will invert and Silver will be worth more than Gold. Those who own the mineral rights to abandoned landfills may end up with a bonanza, lol.

Nature has graciously concentrated Gold and Silver in the earth's crust and man has withdrawn and made use of same. But more Silver than Gold is in the upper reaches of the crust so more of the silver available has been taken from the earth. And man has then placed little bits of Silver in a broad variety of products which have been used up or discarded. Thus spreading the Silver over the earths crust and in the seas . . . a kind of mineral entropy. While Gold has been been mined like Silver but the majority of it has been held in it's pure form in vaults on fingers in jewelry boxes thus concentrating the presence of gold on our planet . . . a kind of mineral enthalpy.

Supply Demand will do flip flops at some point. The ratio of Gold and Silver available will surprise many'

How Warren Buffett Is Smarter than the G20

I think you are right Larry but your time frames are too extended in my opinion. Within 2 or 3 years according to cycle work by Martin Armstrong (June 2010), Robert Prechter (bit later) and others we should be emerging from this deflationary period depending on the actions taken by the Economics Nightmare Team (tm) of Geithner, Bernanke Summers, et al All that paper they have been throwing at our problems which has been bouncing off or simply getting stashed in bankers balance sheets for service when the next shoe drops (Commercial Real Estate) will begin to get traction and will find it way into a massive bubble in commodities. Buffet and the purchases he has been making for years will be waiting there with megaloaders to catch all the money coming in from this purchase and his purchase of a major portion of the natural Gas pipeline and many other purchases with similar foresight

Buffet may die tomorrow but that is not the point. His investing horizons are all years down the road

"If Americans ever allow banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson

Things are happening today in reverse order of the way they did in Jefferson's time. Study monetary history and you will see our country was formed in response to times like these.

On Nov 08 03:48 AM Gary A wrote:

> I still think deflation is a big threat, in which case Buffett's
> railroads will remain empty and the United States will be Japan.
>
>
> Only, in Japan the people themselves are solvent. I would say US
> deleveraging will outlast Buffett's days on this earth. I hope I
> am wrong.

The Dollar Is a Safe Haven? You Bet

The first 4 comments don't understand what the author is saying. He is not commenting the quality of the dollar. He is talking about how it is still used in international finance and in that role it could easily be bought up thus driving the dollar index back up.

Right now it is a Contrarian Play everybody knows it is going down . . . . We shall see!

Market Lessons: Buy Low, SELL High

Yes, Nice Article.

For those who don't believe and aren't incline to take profits you might consider buying a few ETF's perhaps with a 200% gearing to the Bear side. I would stay away from 300% ETF's they seem to dissolve in price whether they are bull or bear.

At this time whose counsel should you follow Greed or Fear?

If you follow Fear you could sell, begin to take cash off the table then if market skyrockets you'll lose out on additional profits but if the market tanks you will have cash available to see you thru the tough times. Also you will have cash to buy stocks at Multi-Decade Lows just in time for the Hyperinflation that is likely to follow after years of Central banks printing money to avoid deflation (won't work imho but that another topic) Stocks like Fertilizer, Silver, Gold, Land, Shippers, etc.

If you follow Greed you keep yourself fully invested if the market rises you keep banking additional Profits reaching new highs in your account balance or rising faster toward your old highs as the case may be. But if the market starts another leg down, technically something that is quite likely, you stand to lose all the radical gains from the last 6 months. You may think Oh I'll sell but it is easier to consistently take profits in a market sell off if you already have done so that cash in your account bears witness to smart protection of hard won assets.

My Advice do your own Risk Reward Scenario on your particular portfolio. Push the risk and reward to extremes to see the full picture and then protect yourself accordingly.

Buying Apple Today: Like Buying Microsoft in 1998?

I think Judging from all the Ultra Positive Comments that everyone has already bought the the Apple Myth or drunk the Apple Koolaid.

This is the definition of a top in most any stock or commodity.

You all believe in Apple you've pulled your funds together to get in . . . where are the Doubter's the I'm not sure folks on the sidelines who have yet to be convinced.

Combining this with a population that is losing their jobs, tightening up their budgets, seeking ways to accomplish tasks with as little outlay as possible and I see Apple right in the crosshairs.

This comments is gonna kill my feedback. Oh well sometime the truth is very popular. Especially these days.

Cheers

Why I'm Getting Bearish Again

Wonderful article! Regarding the SPX we have retraced over 38.2% ( at 1014.14 S&P) of the Drop from 1576.09 (Sept 07 High) to the 666.79 (March 09 Low). We could certainly Fall from here but recent action has shown a lack of vigor on bear side. The bears simply did not sell when the time was ripe. So it seems the next target could be 1121.44 the 50% retracement of the aforementioned Drop. The 1228.74 level is a full 61.8%

It should be mentioned that as we retrace more and more of the Drop (without a strong consolidating retrace needed to strengthen this price structure) we are setting up a sharper and harder resumption of the Bear market. All the while Shill TV will ironically become ever more optimistic and arrogant.

This entire rally from the early March Low of 666.79 to 1026.13 has occurred without a single retrace of 38.2% or better. This makes for an unstable price structure for long term bullish stability yet (the irony continues), we have retraced 38.2% of the Drop from Oct 07 thru March 09 which does stabilize that bearish price action.

These retracement percentages 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% are proportions found in natural structures from plants to animals to stars and solar systems. These proportions provide structural integrity. Right now it looks like the bears have it and the bulls racing frantically ahead forgetting to build a solid structure for future rallys. Doesn't mean we can't rise to the 1121 or 1228 levels but I see a powerful selloff occurring once this bull trend is broken. This is a Fast Sharp Retrace in a Bear Market . . .

Markets Aren't as Benign as They Look

We are mainly printing and borrowing for the Money Center Banks and they are sitting on their Welfare Checks. They are not ramping up the velocity of money. The Money Center Banks are who owns the Fed, they are who they are protecting. With inflation comes higher taxes in the form of higher cost of doing business. High Oil Prices are a tax on almost all economic activity.

So the Cure for excessive debt & leverage is more debt and leverage? Hmmmm Guess I should go get some more credit cards.

On Aug 21 11:05 PM Deepv wrote:

> I think Q1 was trough earnings. To argue otherwise is to argue for
> the great depression II. I think anyone with brain can see we printing
> and borrowing our way to avoid that pretty nicely. I think we may
> have great inflation II. for that I would rather have stocks than
> hold dead president or fixed income dead pres's. Stocks are interest
> in real biz that can respond to inflation. gold is a rock.

Markets Aren't as Benign as They Look

As my father said, ":Figures don't Lie, but Liars Figure."


On Aug 21 05:58 PM Crocodilian wrote:

> @Gardner
> On Aug 21 05:27 PM Gardener wrote:

Greenlight's Einhorn: Buying S&P 500 and General Electric Puts

Brian, you lead with ignorance of what a Free country and free markets are all about. It is not "anarchy" to have the market set interest rates. Had that been the fashion in which our interest rates had been set we would not be in the trouble we are now. In fact it is a Hell of a lot more orderly then private interest pushing their agenda onto the market. Market setting interest rates is how "free markets" would set rates as opposed to a single falliable Fed Chairman, like Easy Al Greenspan or Helicopter Ben Bernanke who dominate Fed Policy. Their Job is not to promote a stable currency and economy but simply to Promote and Protect the PRIVATE BANKS who own the Fed ie Large US money center banks like Citibank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan etc, Large English Money Center Banks and German as well.




On Aug 17 09:45 AM Brian McMorris wrote:

> There are only two reasons to cheerlead the destruction of the world
> financial systems, which many at Seeking Alpha (Quasi) apparently
> do.
>
> 1. A political agenda for the elimination of all government management
> of the financial system, in other words a completely "free market".
> I have another term for this concept. It is called "Anarchy". Great
> plan. Every many for himself. I have a little sympathy for this
> perspective. At least these people have some ideals (Ron Paul Libertarians).
>
>
> 2. Such cheerleaders are playing the market from the short side
> and are trying to profit from everyone else's misery. They don't
> care how many people they put out of work or homes. This is much
> more pathetic than the misdirected anarchists. News flash to Bear
> cheerleaders: you caught the planet's financial system flat-footed
> in 2008. It won't happen again. There are plenty of ways to cut
> you off at the knees. If you are a perma-bear, you will be bankrupt
> soon. Enjoy the next week, then get ready for more pain.

Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions

So if the market moves down instead of up what will you be doing?


On Aug 16 07:53 PM Tack wrote:

> It's precisely these kinds of histrionic, doomsaying articles (and
> comments) that give me greater confidence to maintain, and selectively
> increase, investment positions in banks and other financials. The
> same people who likely lost lots of money on the downside will watch,
> mystified, as they observe from the sidelines the recovery phase.
>
>
> And, the more the markets run away from them, the angrier they'll
> get, at everybody but themselves, of course.

Market Outlook: We Are at an Important Inflection Point

Somebody please ban the previous poster for spamming incessantly.

Yes, I have begun to short last week but will begin to exit my short positions if I don't see confirmation this week . . . by Tuesday.

Greenlight's Einhorn: Buying S&P 500 and General Electric Puts

apppro where do losses come from in such a situation? From not having enough money to back your positions . . . thus they were over leveraged, Hello?

I see you conveniently ignore the issues I bring up . . .

Greenlight's Einhorn: Buying S&P 500 and General Electric Puts

apppro's comments above are just another example of the standard line used to defend "The looting of the American Middle Class" and the Good Old Boy Elitist Club filling each other pockets at the expense of honest hard working Americans

apppro " (which our Treasury OK'd)"

Like I said "Lax Gov't Regulation and Risky Investing "

apppro "This destroyed the confidence" Yes that is how cons or confidence schemes are debunked. Your problem is you believe in Ponzi scheme finance.

Those short sellers are part of the market and they operate without the help of intervention in fact they have to withstand it. Gov't intervention merely enables criminal elements to defraud the public. To big to fail and to corrupt to fail is Money Center Bank Propaganda tool

If you're for gov't intervention to support corrupt corporate entities from a NeoCon Republican standpoint or a Democrat Standpoint I'm against you!

Greenlight's Einhorn: Buying S&P 500 and General Electric Puts

Your saying Einhorn orchestrated a takedown of Lehman is pure disinformation. There is probably a great analogy to put here but I can't think of it. So the outrageously excessive leverage used by Lehman had nothing to do with it? I forgot we live in an age where one is not responsible for the results of ones actions. Lehman found out differently when the Good Old Boy Club of Money Center Banksters cut them out of the bailout club. Lax Gov't Regulation and Risky Investing worked together to take Lehman out on thin ice.

And you fault the guy that recognizes "thin ice" when he sees it. Give me a break. I 'd love for him to educate our lawmakers and regulators on what the concepts of sound finance are all about in this overleveraged world.

The US would do better to slaughter the entitled mammoths of Money Center Banksters and others so we can move into the 21st century unencumbered by back office sweet heart deals where the Corporate Folly is Socialized and Corporate Greed is Privatized.


On Aug 16 11:44 AM Tom Armistead wrote:

> More likely Einhorn plans to orchestrate a takedown on GE the same
> as he did on Lehman. If successful. that would result in the S&P
> 500 going down rapidly, to say the least.
>
> I am not aware of anything to suggest that there is bad blood between
> Immelt and Geithner like there was between Fuld and Paulson. Plus
> the authorities have noticed that the collapse of a major financial
> institution has repurcussions and are unlikely to let personalities
> get in the way.
>
> Einhorn would do better for himself if he made positive bets on GE
> which is an American Icon, also on the S&P, which is undervalued.
> But if his bets are losers, as I think they are, I personally will
> be happy to see him lose money while I make it.

Use Silver's Volatility to Control Risk

Yes, I am a big fan of Silver and use the Gold Silver ratio to increase my holding as the ratio moves to extremes. I traded Gold for Silver when the ratio was above 80. I do agree majority of Gold ever mined is in someone's possession while silver has been used in minute portions in many products and thus id in the landfill or down the drain but I disagree that there is 100 time more Gold than Silver. In fact there is still more Silver warehoused than Gold but it is much closer than the price indicates by a long shot.

Also worth mentioning Silver deposits tend to be higher in the earth's crust than Gold deposits so much more of the Silver to be discovered has been done while so much of the Gold has yet to be discovered.


On Aug 14 11:11 AM Donald Ingram wrote:

> With virtually all the gold that was ever mined since King Solomon,
> still with us, and 90% of all the silver ever mined - GONE! Silver
> is now 100 times more scarce than gold, and is as I consider, to
> be vastly under priced compared to the yellow metal, that silver
> right now is a very good value buy. Go long physical silver.