Manifestor

It's a Winter Warming Spell - But More Snow Ahead for Markets

While your 13 reasons are compelling, the argument is not complete until you also discuss the potential reasons for a pull out of the bear market and argue why they may not succeed. Here are a few potential reasons for a bigger upside potential:
1. Stimulus package and unemployment benefits might just create enough oomph to enhance consumer confidence and in return spending.
2. Attempts to bring and keep mortgage rates down to <5% that can stimulate significant refinance activity.
3. Stimulus packages and welfare spending in other countries starting to create a more robust domestic economy there. China plans to spend big time (in the near future) on their local rural/migratory populations on health care, education, retraining and retirement benefits. This is over and above their $587B stimulus package. Indian market is starting to look up due to the election and because the market is way oversold. Australia, Japan, Saudi Arabia and others have their own stimulus and welfare spending plans already in action.
4. M&A activities could start to perk up as strong companies decide not to wait much longer lest they loose good buying opportunities. I wont be surprised if many companies don't already have a list to work off of when the time is right.
5. Bad asset mop-up might just become successful thanks to market upswing, mark-to-market discussion and private bank interest in grabbing a good deal with treasury backing.
6. TALF program
7. Census program (additional employment)
8. Unlikely as it may be, there may be no more news big enough to wake up the shorts. Especially if the uptick rule is reinstated.
9. Retirees, contrary to conventional wisdom, may decide to take risks and jump into stock market to revive and save their retirement. That is their only chance.
10. Last but not least, weather and consumer confidence. Even the small four-day rally has made people to sit up and even splurge on small low cost luxuries. Even I decided to buy one out of the umpteen items I had so far put off buying. I even sent a small amount to a charity! They could provide just the needed push to move the indices beyond various resistance levels. They are such key motivators :-)

My 2 cents.