tom2987

Two Fight Back - Cramer's Mad Money (9/11/08)

[Comment removed and user banned for racial epithet. - SA editor]

Two Fight Back - Cramer's Mad Money (9/11/08)

He's been pounding on certain stocks with reckless abandon, one week he says one thing, the next 180 degrees different, BTW

WaMu: Why Core Deposits Matter

WAMU was one of the first to start reserving for the impending mortgage problems, the first to raise liquidity, now will be the first to dramatically increase deposits. They've been relentlessly punished by the media for doing so, but I think they are ahead of the curve in responding to the financial problems (yes, the ones they helped create). I've spoken to several people, family, coworkers, that have moved money to WAMU CDs in the last couple of weeks. I think people will surprised just how many new depositers they get.

WaMu: Speculative Value Play

Do you even remember Volker? Do you remember the Carter years?Volker has been saying the sky was falling for 30 years now. And he almost did make it fall in the 70's.

Greenspan misses the limelight and basically only gets into the news now by professing gloom and doom.

WaMu: Speculative Value Play

Great Article

Remember that WAMU has gone from the $40's to $4. I mean, come on. All the negatives that the shorties mentioned above have been factored in the price already in spades (and the rumors, exhuberant negitivity, etc) . Add Cramer and his non stop bla bla bla booyahing because he hates WAMUs MGT because they won't kiss his ass,, all the "oh me too" negative articles, etc. it's a miracle WAMU hasn't had a run on it.

This tells me people are starting to ignore the talking heads and realize it is the US's largest savings. There won't be a run on this bank. Too big. Sure, it made some errors, but it's working it's way through them. Go long.

'Demand Destruction' and Gasoline Prices

Holy smokes, that 1.7 was last weeks number. Mastercard just came out with this weeks report.

"The four-week moving average for gasoline demand fell 5.2 percent from last year's levels to 9.163 million barrels per day"

www.reuters.com/articl...

Inventories out tomorrow, if we have a substantial build, on top of this substantial reduced demand, it could get ugly for the speculators.

'Demand Destruction' and Gasoline Prices

Yank,
For all of User's typos, he's right. US's demand is down 1.7 percent according to MasterCard (who I have much more faith in than gov stat), and not the 0.7% you state. Keep in mind those stats are from May and do not take into consideration the most recent substantial increases at the pump. Also please consider it was over memorial day. Because so much more gasoline is used in summer, a 1% drop in summer impacts the entire year up to 5%.

For India, you say it's only 10% which won’t equate to demand destruction. I think the Indians would disagree as they are currently protesting as a result of the increase.. Actually, to put a real number to that 10%, it's actually “only” 13 cents for gas and 8 cents for diesel. But to the 300 million of India's 1.1 billion people live on less then a dollar a day, and the millions of others live on the state-set minimum daily wage of $1.60, that is a substantial increase. It would be the equivalent the price of gas in the US going UP $10.68 a gallon overnight. I’m no genius, but I think that might hurt demand.

'Demand Destruction' and Gasoline Prices

Well, you mixing 2 different things here that needs to be pointed out. The article you show from last August wasn't about the drop in gasoline demand, it was about the a lower increase of gasoline demand growth, but still increased demand.

The most recent article from Master Card shows true demand destruction. That is, a fall in the demand of a product. A a significant drope of 1.7 over the same period last year.

The kneejerk answer to this has always been "oh yeah, but the Chinese and Indians eat up that decrease". Wrong. For every percentage drop in US demand, China and India's demand would need to increase 3% (5.1% to make up the most recent us demand destruction). That simply isn't happening. This article also doesn't take into account that the EU is now experiencing slowing demand you'll soon see "demand destruction".

Is your agenda showing, or do I have to wipe Indiana off the list of possible colleges for my children? Economics 101.
Subsidies
The drop in subsidies in several asian countries may not seem like such a bif deal, but when you look at the average household income in those nations, it is substantial.

'Index Speculators' Responsible For Commodity Prices?

US Declining: Hmm. Well, if so, we have a TON of declining to do. Ranks by GDP.

1 United States 13,843,825
2 Japan 4,383,762
3 Germany 3,322,147
4 China 3,250,827
5 United Kingdom 2,772,570
6 France 2,560,255
7 Italy 2,104,666
8 Spain 1,438,959
9 Canada 1,432,140
10 Brazil 1,313,590

'Index Speculators' Hoarding Commodities

you are totally wrong. Look at the cotton market. Goes north of $90, farmers are offered 60, they say wait a minute, the market says $90. They're told "oh, that's just the contract price, nobody is interested in paying $90 for physical cotton". What the hell are they trading then? I sure hope the CFTC rolls some heads in all the commodity markets.

I guess we know where all the Enron traders went after it closed.

'Index Speculators' Responsible For Commodity Prices?

8 million barrels less this week because of fog.......Please, these supertankers have radar, it's not a problem for them. Unless, nudge wink "sorry, it's too foggy, we have to wait" driving down inventories.

Market manipulation.
Was this supposed to be part of Goldman Sachs supposed "super spike" that they were reporting last week? Sorry GS, the market is getting too smart for you now. Were are the reports showing that we imported 16 million less barrels in the last 4 weeks than over the same time last year. Can you say Demand destruction.

Where will oil be next week when all of those tankers, 2 million barrels each, have to unload. Surplus of 15, 20 million for the week? Let's see what happens to oil prices then. Get ready for the crash and short oil.