CBrown1818

Ashford Hospitality Trust Remains on Stable Ground

What about AHTs credit facility? The credit facility is secured by the company's mezzanine loan portfolio. If they can't refinance that it will be gone by the quarterly report right? How much of an impact will this have on the company's ability to weather the recession?

Oil: If It Looks Like a Bubble...

If the oil prices are being driven by supply and demand it is very important to remember to take both factors into account and to consider them globally. It seems like a lot of people doing supply/demand analysis are simply forgetting that it is a combination of things. Yes US demand has dropped a shocking 1% (sarcasm) while oil prices have doubled. But don't forget that emerging economies are growing AND global supply has been dropping simultaneously. This is an obvious and somewhat pointless observation, but it seems like many analysts are getting stuck on only what is happening in the US or only what is happening to demand. Not all of it.

The Relationship between Oil, Drillers and Refiners

One thing to bear in mind is the rate at which oil prices are climbing/dropping in comparison to gas prices rising/declining. As oil prices rise slowly this is great for refiners, because gas prices tend to rise too, increasing profit margins despite the slowly increasing costs of oil. However if oil prices rise too quickly vs gas prices, refiners are in for some tough times because the price of oil exceeds what they can make from selling the gasoline. If oil remains near its current price or goes higher over the next few months expect some bad quarterly reports from refiners in the near term. However those who are positioning themselves to and will be strong enough to weather these circumstances will make a great recovery once gas prices rise to meet oil. Valero and Tesoro are my top picks. I hate WNR.