geofisher1

Timber ETF: Smart Move in a Deflationary Environment?

I would also add WY as a potential convert to a REIT; POPE, a small NW limited partnership; TMWEF.PK (TWF_U.TO), BC timber with about 750k acres in Vancouver; SNOFF.PK (TRE.TO), China timber.

Humboldt: When Cash Is Not Always King

It would have been informative to have split out current deposits from business working capital. I have seen this number in other reports, but it is outdated. A few months ago, it was something like $4-5 a share in non-deposit cash, with the balance project deposits. I'm sure its less today.

Is Natural Gas About to Break Higher?

"Yet another way to get long nat gas is via the Chesapeake convertible preferred CHK-D. Should have a sizeable equity upside if nat gas takes off & pays you well while you wait."

I just looked @ this and find it interestingly overpriced. $100 convert value, 2.3 shares common @ conversion price of $44, 4.5% coupon, cumulative. Current common price is $21.50, common yield is 1.5%, prf yield is 6.7%. Intrinsic value is $47 (21.5 * 2.3), but it trades @ $67, for a premium of 40%, with an added 5.2% cash yield. In addition, max cap gain is to $130, or 94% gain, as the co can force conversion over $130.

I think if you like CHK, buy the common, or wait for a premium closer to 10% (my personal target for convert prf)

Is Natural Gas About to Break Higher?

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Fracking is bad for the water table (or so they say), but needed to get the stuff out of shale. With the "Greens" in charge, keep a close eye on this one as it will have an impact on production and future drilling. Remember the push to get offshore drilling when oil was @ $150? - now the Greens are in charge again of our energy policy. I can't believe that a huge windmill farm in Nantucket Sound is any more unsightly than oil rigs off the CA/FL coast.

Is Natural Gas About to Break Higher?

The question is where are we going from here, and I agree. Cycles in price, supply, and demand are natural and the most sucessful way to make money in nat gas / oil is to buy @ 5 yr and 10 yr lows (they don't come around very often). If you are a medium term investor, now is the time to load up on nat gas pipelines and smaller E&P guys. Watch out for the push to outlaw fracking, as it will shut down 30% of oil and 50% of current nat gas wells - forget Haynesville if that happens. New pipelines xcountry will open up new areas for gas comptition - ie new pipeline from Rockys to Chi-town and Haynesville to FL. Interesting times and I'm long nat gas - DMLP, EPD, APA, ATPG, GMXR, GO.TO. Just my humble opinion

Investing in Infrastructure

My choices for the infrastructure plays are KHD (cement making), ASTE (asphalt making), CPTC (ACCS wire, wind turbines), BGC (wire), TRN (wind towers, specality rail cars to transport), TNB (misc stuff for the grid), LAYN (water). I wrote extensively about infrastucture investing themes as early as 1997.

Eight Wind Energy Related Stocks

I have owned TNB, TRN for some time based on the need to improve the ele ut infrastructure - the grid. I recently bought into BGC, and through them found CPTC. I like the analysis of William Blair - look to the ACCC market as its primary driver of profit and the wind stuff comes along for the ride. With the opportunity to greatly reduce grid line loss, the ACCC product will be the one to watch. Just think - do nothing but upgrade the transmission wire and the efficency of the entire system greatly improves - it is like adding more generating capacity. This is where the best future for CTPC lies - not in the fickle and speculative wind business.