wolfdog

Could the Dow Reach 4000?

Unlike some of the comments written above, I think this author has done a very thoughtful analysis which deserves reflection. My own bias is to use DJIA dividend yield as a value anchor rather than earnings, which are too flaky and volatile. Major bottom low on dividend could dwell in the range of 4500 to 4800 on the DJIA. That said, we are all being somewhat guilty of "piling on" in this current correction and trying to outgun one another w/ bearish scenarios. That is opening the contrary window for a violent countertrend bear market rally that could appear out of nowhere with just a random catalyst as yet unknown. However even such a rally would not negate the notion of this bear cycle being more extended in duration, e. g. excess of 700 days rather than the shorter historical examples. I do agree with author that the primary trend is bearish until proved otherwise, and that is the main issue to keep in focus.