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NoeValleyJim

NoeValleyJim
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  • An Ambitious Emerging Markets Forecast [View article]
    What is the P/E for EEM? Yahoo Finance has it at 11.
    Jul 10 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • President Obama has signed the Taxpayer Relief Act into law. It's a piece of legislation that Dennis Gartman calls "nasty, vile, despicable," (video) although he concedes that "we had no choice but we had to sign it." Now that the fiscal cliff is behind us for a while, Gartman sees stock prices building on yesterday's gains. Still, "owning stocks at this point is rather like owning stocks in Zimbabwe a few years ago." [View news story]
    Who is Dennis Gartman?
    Jan 3 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charting World Shares Of GDP [View article]
    I want back to the original source data and in the EU15, per capita real GDP growth has been 207% from 1970 to 2010 and for the US, 201% over the same period.

    Basically a wash. If anything the data slightly favors the social democracies.
    Nov 23 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charting World Shares Of GDP [View article]
    Very good, now show us a graph of per capita median GDP in the United States vs. Europe. In the US median GDP has been flat, while it has grown in Europe. Population growth has been the main driver of overall US GDP growth.

    For a middle class person, it has been far better to be in Europe over the last 40 years. For the 0.1% it has been to be an American.
    Nov 23 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: S&P [View article]
    Selling out of the money puts is a bad idea if the stock market goes down. Who edits this stuff?
    Aug 21 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation And The Fallacies Of Long-Term Equity Investing [View article]
    Real median income in 2011 was 4% more than in 1973 and this is calculated using BLS inflation statistics. If inflation was really understated by 4-5%, then inflation during that period would have driven real wages down 75% during that period. Run your own numbers on what 4% increased inflation does. Do you really believe that people are making 1/4 as much money per capita as they were in 1973?

    The United States is not Argentina. It is possible, even likely, that real inflation is slightly underreported, on the order of 0.5% a year. But the magnitude of this claim makes it trivially easy to rebut. If inflation were really running 4% higher then American real wages would be cut in half every 18 years (rule of 72 here) and we would be making 1/8th as much as we did in 1955 and 1/16th as much as we did in 1937. Does that sound reasonable to you?

    Talk to someone who was alive then and ask them if the standard of living of an average American is 1/8th what it was in 1955.

    Run your returns on what Gold does if inflation was really as high as you claim, it will turn out to be a disaster too.

    Given some of your other comments, you really don't understand why a stock or the stock market as a whole can give you returns higher than inflation over the long run. You need to think a bit more about how that works before you lose your shirt investing.

    The overall stock market should return at approximately the rate of overall real GDP growth, plus the dividend rate thrown off by the stocks. It is really not that much more than inflation, but it is a few percentage points more. Over the long run, this matters.

    Keep swinging for the fences, let's see what does better over the next 20 years: your 100% gold portfolio, or a balanced 50/50 portfolio of stocks and bonds, invested both in the US and overseas.
    Apr 29 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI's WLI Moves Higher; Q1 GDP Positive Due To Deficit Spending [View article]
    It is a good thing that the government is pumping money into the economy, or we would be in a severe recession.
    Apr 28 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation And The Fallacies Of Long-Term Equity Investing [View article]
    I don't know why you crackpots always point to Shadowstats. According to that site, real wages are half what they were in the 70s. I can remember the 70s, people lived in smaller houses and drove smaller cars and there was more crime and pollution. It is not believable that inflation has averaged 3-4% higher than reported inflation over the longer period.
    Apr 20 02:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Preferred Stock: A Winner In 2012 [View article]
    Did Google even issue any preferred stock? I can't find it.

    http://bit.ly/H6LgDx
    Apr 1 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reload Your Dividend Portfolio for a Yield-Boosting Strategy [View article]
    I just ran across this and I would like to congratulate Jeffrey for calling the bond market just right. Unfortunately, the dividend stocks all went up about the same amount.

    http://yhoo.it/usdtBR
    Nov 7 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Monthly Pay Option-Income CEF Yielding 10.6% [View article]
    The distribution has all been ROC these days, so it is not generating much if any income. This is why it is trading at a discount.
    Oct 28 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could the Dow Hit 4,500? [View article]
    You remind me of the Dow 36,000 guys.
    Feb 12 01:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators at Negative 9.8; Has the ECRI Blown Yet Another Recession Call? [View article]
    The pessimism from your average investor gives me more optimism than ever that being fully invested is the way to be in this market. We will continue to have slow growth for a while, as we work off the excess debt from the Bush Era, but the economy *will not* dip into a another recession. Unemployment amongst college educated workers is 3% and corporate earnings are booming and should set an all time high in 2011.

    The combination of low interest rates, low inflation, big piles of cash in corporate coffers and strong corporate profit growth are about as good as it gets for the stock market. I am loading up on great names like INTC and MSFT, which trade at a P/E of 13 and T and VZ, which trade at a P/E of 12 and pay 6%+ dividends. And don't even get me started on drug stocks!

    There will be no double dip and the stock market will show us steady gains from here on out four at least four years. The "dumb money" retail investor will miss the boat again, including almost all of the commentators to this thread.
    Jul 25 01:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators at Negative 9.8; Has the ECRI Blown Yet Another Recession Call? [View article]
    Michael Shedlock has called seven of the last four recessions. So his track record really isn't one to brag about.
    Jul 21 03:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9% Yields Still Available on Municipal Bond Funds [View article]
    You missed BFZ. The expenses are only 0.63% on this one, too.
    Oct 22 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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