groty

Potash Heats Up: $1000 a Tonne?

I was with a bank that participated in a loan to TRA during the last cyclical fertilizer boom. The boom very quickly turned to bust, and TRA came very close to having to file for bankruptcy after fertilizer pricing collapsed. The stock traded down to about $1.

So, the point is that the minute the pricing cycle peaks, the stock will become toxic even though earnings won't peak for a few quarters after the pricing peak because price increases go into effect with a lag.

The stock sells off after every price increase is announced because people want to believe pricing just can't go any higher.

Is $1000/ton peak pricing? That is the only relevant question.