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They've convinced the analysts that the inventory overhang will be worked off by 1Q and that production cuts will keep pricing from deteriorating further. You can see the analysts have bought into it by looking at 2Q and full year estimates.
Mar 20 11:28 am
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All Comments by groty »Potash Continues to Shake off Bad News [View article]
I continue to think MOS and POT management are going to concede on the 1Q earnings call that they've been too optimistic about the rebound. The question is, are investors already pricing in a disappointing 2Q and full year 2009 and they're willing to own the stock at current levels in anticipation of a strong 2010 and beyond.
I obviously don't know the answer. I'm hoping for a flush after 1Q earnings are announced so I can buy the stock much cheaper, but the fact the stock is so reslient in the face of bad news makes me think I may not get that opportunity.