yuman

26 Comments

    • The Reign of Uncertainty in Financial Markets [view article]
      'Someone is going to have to “own up” to this pain and provide a map for getting through it.'
      Are we praying for a visible hand here? If you conclude that the market forces are ineffective, this is more profound than uncertainty. Then we need to identify the root cause for the inefficiency of the markets.       Aug 27 04:13 PM
    • Investment Strategies in These Times of Transition [view article]
      Mr Mason,
      In the penultimate paragraph, you mentioned two foundations for the next expansion: financial stabilization and alternative energy. I wonder about the possibility and timeframe of their coming about. Given the currently popular demand side policies, the are not foreseeable. Are we talking about 5 years, 10, or 20? What does it take for the US government to make a policy shift?       Aug 04 02:40 AM
    • Higher Food Prices Bane of Farmers, Boon to Agriculture ETFs [view article]
      Reticon,
      By double top, I assume you mean 43 for DBA. Chartists are like weathermen. One sees double top, another sees support at 34, still another sees 35. Today it broke the 200-day moving average, which is supposedly bearish.
      On the fundamental side, the cost of production, energy, fertilizer and seeds, have gone up compared to last year. The demand only increases. Unless you predict a bumper crop, the bull won't die.       Jul 23 12:35 AM
    • Asset Class Correlations [view article]
      DrBagel,
      I think 10-Yr treasuries in the tables are measured in price, not yield. The dollar drops with short terms rates, while gold rises (-0.64), so do bond prices.       Jul 22 03:02 PM
    • Why Doesn't the CPI Seem More Like Real Life? [view article]
      Is PPI plutocratic then since it is not associated with households? Jul 22 01:57 PM
    • Federal Reserve Operations: A Six-Month Review [view article]
      A great article indeed.
      I have a gap in understanding M2 growth related to inflation, however. The article quotes M2 growth data:
      5.5%, 07Q4
      6.8%, February 2008
      7.1%, March
      6.5%, April 2008
      6.4%, MAy 2008
      6.0%, June 2008
      Then in the last paragraph, it concludes that this "points to a rate of inflation of around 4%". Is this prediction from some quantitative model or rule? What is the time lag from M2 growth to PPI/CPI?       Jul 21 02:12 PM
    • Are Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Tune? [view article]
      The ideas are vague and analysis superficial. The table doesn't show anything definitive; it is qualitative at best. Look, US down 13%, Brazil up 4 % in USD terms. Is this decoupled, or dancing to the same tune?
      There are statistical methods for calculating covariances and time lags. It is hard to tell a complex story with English verbage and tables.       Jul 21 01:00 PM
    • Protecting Your Wealth and Profit During the 2008 Crash [view article]
      The HUI against DJI chart is a case of confirmatory bias: yr 2000 happened to be a bottom for gold and peak for DJ. We can't assert that this selected period is typical. If you bought gold stock in 1990 and hold until 2001, you would have lost money. See the chart covering 1986-present finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=^DJI.
      Fundamentally, I don't know what drives gold prices. In the long term, gold has seriously underperformed DJ.       Jul 20 06:41 PM
    • Gold's Finest Hour: How to Buy Now [view article]
      This puzzles me a great deal and I beg for some explanation. There seem to be arguments for gold everywhere and every economic and financial factor has been used by gold bulls. I don't remember seeing a gold bear article. Inflation is said to be good for gold. But I don't see proof presented for that, or a correlation between CPI and gold price. I am afraid that during deflation, we will hear that deflation boosts gold prices and will even be shown charts proving that point. Weak dollar, strong euro of necessity, is said to be good for gold. Now in the current article, we hear:
      "gold prices will rally even higher as investors dump what's perceived to be the ultimate king of fiat currencies (euro)." This is odd since it means that strong dollar boosts gold. I also heard that credit crises, which is deflationary, boosts gold. It's also quite convincing that prosperity boosts gold. Any factor, in either the positive or the negative direction, boosts gold. If I believe what I read about gold, any change boosts gold, so does stability. Are the gold bulls nuts?       Jul 20 01:52 PM
    • Calling Today A Short-Term Bottom for Financials [view article]
      I'd want to see a W formation as a confirmation of a bottom. Jul 15 07:13 PM
    • Is Gold a Good Investment During the Credit Crunch? [view article]
      This article is half finished. It discredited two myths about gold prices: interest rate spread and bank failures with historical data. So we learned that there no correlation between gold that those factors.
      But the article jumps to another myth without proof: "there is only one main reason why people should hold gold and that is inflation. "
      Isn't it a simple data gathering and presentation to superimpose inflation data, CPI/PPI or M2 over gold prices?
      Has anyone seen or constructed such a chart to establish the gold/inflation relationship? Without the data, we are running the risk of buying another myth.       Jul 13 06:04 PM
    • Dollar Hurt by Geopolitical Concerns and High Oil [view article]
      How can Oil prices are drive the currency market? For example, oil pushes up AUD? Suppose OPEC cuts supply to bump up prices, how would that drive up AUD/USD?

      Let's consider OIL/USD, OIL/AUD and AUD/USD. SImple math gives
      (OIL/USD)/(AUD/USD) = OIL/AUD
      This relationship ensures that (OIL/USD) and (AUD/USD) moves in the same direction to maintain reasonable OIL/AUD. If we have to find a driver, I'd say that the larger drives the smaller, in terms of trading volume or.       Jul 13 12:14 AM
    • Three Themes I'm Tracking for Signs of a Reversal [view article]
      Historically in the past 30 years, the trend reversal of financials and the general market have been in sync. Financials don't serve as an early warning for reversals.
      Comparing the stock charts with MZM history, I notice that dropping growth of money precedes reversals. In years 2002 and 2003, the money growth rate dropped from 20% to 5%, foretelling a reversal in March 2003. Financials surged 30% in the following 12 months.       Jul 09 02:30 AM
    • Gold's Golden Run All Set to Continue [view article]
      Sorry. I meant
      I see no consistency.       Jul 07 12:19 AM
    • Gold's Golden Run All Set to Continue [view article]
      This article is totally incoherent. Stockerati sounds like a foolish gold peddler who doesn't care about data, while claiming to be "the data-driven person I am". What a joke.

      Stockerati asserts:
      During times of inflation or recession in the economy, Gold prices always sky-rocket.

      You should have taken a look at a historical gold price chart and line it up with recession and inflation to see if there is any correlation. I see consistency.

      The 200 YEAR DOW/GOLD Ratio is particularly misleading. The positive-sloped green band actually means the in the period, gold underperformed DOW except when the line dipped outside the band briefly for a few times.

      I believe gold will go up, but not for the reasons the author made up.       Jul 07 12:17 AM
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