yuman

Busting Yet Another Market Indicator Myth

Great article. I hope you can bust more myths, such as gold as an inflation hedge.

Morning and Afternoon Buyers

If the market rises in the morning, then again in later afternoon, the morning buyers, or the individual by the analysis, beats the institutions, who follow the morning crowd. The "dumb" money beats the "smart" money -- why is it call "smart" then?

Are Institutions Participating in the Rally?

To answer the question of the title, we need to look at the institutional ownership before and after the rally. If the ownership percentage remains or increases, we can conclude that the institutions participated.

Market-Neutral Strategy Using Ultra Sector ETFs

Your strategy, from the time this article was written, Feb 2007, to now, May 2009, would have experienced 2*24%(DBU) + 60%(upw) loss, 36% overall -- on par with the market average.

Sentiment Overview: Steady as She Goes

Babak, I like your sentiment overviews but wonder if insider trading is meaningful enough to be included. For an amateur, the information, let alone analyses, is hard to come by.

FOMC minutes: the economy will continue to contract, unemployment will rise and remain elevated through the end of 2011, inflation will remain subdued. Some officials are open to buying more Treasurys. (Read the full FOMC minutes)

The summary provided in this Market Current is seriously skewed and inaccurate. I read the full FOMC minute but could not find any support for the statement:
" unemployment will rise and remain elevated through the end of 2011".

The minute is actually very vague on the future:
"economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. "

Is This Bear Market Rally Over?

For Coppock Curve, to inflect on the Dow, the index needs to stay above 8210 on 5/29. For NADAQ to confirm the inflection, that is, stop bending downward on Coppock, it needs to be over 1577 on 5/29

Housing Starts at Underappreciated New Low

Wishful thinking. Look at the chart for 2007-2008. It has been dropping like a stone, but did not help existing home prices.


On May 19 05:27 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> This is very positive for existing homes market prices. ...

When Will Banks Start Lending Again?

The link in my previous comment was broken by SA. Here it goes in plain text :research.stlouisfed.o...

When Will Banks Start Lending Again?

Would someone enlighten me on M1 multiplier research.stlouisfed.or...[1][id]=MULT&s[1][... which stands at 0.87 now. My understanding is that for each dollar in reserve, 0.87 gets into the real economy. Would this encapsulate the total effect of load creation and destruction?

Sell in May and Go Away? No Way

You forgot to validate, or prove the historical value, of your buy criteria variables. Fundamental soundness is subjective and may not translate into market value.

Sentiment Overview: Newsletter Editors as Bullish as a Year Ago

How is the The Grey Beards' track record? Is it predictive or contrarian?

Ok, so Ken Lewis (BAC) sold his CFO a used Porsche. Isn't this taking corporate scrutiny to an extreme?

The reporters, as usual, missed what's important and got stuck on trivial matters. Quit reading financial news.

Gold Standard and the Definition of Price Stability

So you would propose something like consumer and asset price index, CAPI instead of CPI. Then if the stock market rallies, Fed will have to tighten the money supply and the real economy will contract. The monetary tools don't seem suited for managing the virtual economy.

Market Wobbles on Extreme Optimism and Breadth

Thank Babak for the factual, unbiased and cool-headed presentation of relevant data. They seem to lead to short on financials.