yuman

Sentiment Overview: Steady as She Goes

Babak, I like your sentiment overviews but wonder if insider trading is meaningful enough to be included. For an amateur, the information, let alone analyses, is hard to come by.

Is This Bear Market Rally Over?

For Coppock Curve, to inflect on the Dow, the index needs to stay above 8210 on 5/29. For NADAQ to confirm the inflection, that is, stop bending downward on Coppock, it needs to be over 1577 on 5/29

Sentiment Overview: Newsletter Editors as Bullish as a Year Ago

How is the The Grey Beards' track record? Is it predictive or contrarian?

Market Wobbles on Extreme Optimism and Breadth

Thank Babak for the factual, unbiased and cool-headed presentation of relevant data. They seem to lead to short on financials.

Are Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Tune?

The ideas are vague and analysis superficial. The table doesn't show anything definitive; it is qualitative at best. Look, US down 13%, Brazil up 4 % in USD terms. Is this decoupled, or dancing to the same tune?
There are statistical methods for calculating covariances and time lags. It is hard to tell a complex story with English verbage and tables.

Protecting Your Wealth and Profit During the 2008 Crash

The HUI against DJI chart is a case of confirmatory bias: yr 2000 happened to be a bottom for gold and peak for DJ. We can't assert that this selected period is typical. If you bought gold stock in 1990 and hold until 2001, you would have lost money. See the chart covering 1986-present finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=^DJI.
Fundamentally, I don't know what drives gold prices. In the long term, gold has seriously underperformed DJ.

Three Themes I'm Tracking for Signs of a Reversal

Historically in the past 30 years, the trend reversal of financials and the general market have been in sync. Financials don't serve as an early warning for reversals.
Comparing the stock charts with MZM history, I notice that dropping growth of money precedes reversals. In years 2002 and 2003, the money growth rate dropped from 20% to 5%, foretelling a reversal in March 2003. Financials surged 30% in the following 12 months.

On Country Selection

Let me pose a basic question:
What countries are stable and POSITIVELY affective by the surging oil and food prices? That is, what countries export BOTH energy and food? Well, Russia doesn't exactly export food, but it makes fertilizers and thus benefits from the ag boom.

Inflation Fears Are Overblown

One big factor the author didn't mention is housing, that has been deflationary in the past two years, counteracting food and energy prices. If Congress succeeds in pumping $300B with the mortgage rescue bill to stop the housing slump, that would be inflationary.

Preparing for the Fall

"Novice investors would do well to shift a sizable portion of their portfolios to cash."
Why cash? Historically, when stocks crashed, gold rallied. See Year 2002 chart: finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...