yuman

The Reign of Uncertainty in Financial Markets

'Someone is going to have to “own up” to this pain and provide a map for getting through it.'
Are we praying for a visible hand here? If you conclude that the market forces are ineffective, this is more profound than uncertainty. Then we need to identify the root cause for the inefficiency of the markets.

Protecting Your Wealth and Profit During the 2008 Crash

The HUI against DJI chart is a case of confirmatory bias: yr 2000 happened to be a bottom for gold and peak for DJ. We can't assert that this selected period is typical. If you bought gold stock in 1990 and hold until 2001, you would have lost money. See the chart covering 1986-present finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=^DJI.
Fundamentally, I don't know what drives gold prices. In the long term, gold has seriously underperformed DJ.

Three Themes I'm Tracking for Signs of a Reversal

Historically in the past 30 years, the trend reversal of financials and the general market have been in sync. Financials don't serve as an early warning for reversals.
Comparing the stock charts with MZM history, I notice that dropping growth of money precedes reversals. In years 2002 and 2003, the money growth rate dropped from 20% to 5%, foretelling a reversal in March 2003. Financials surged 30% in the following 12 months.