There's a "real chance" Jamie Dimon (JPM +1%) may have to drop his dual chairman and CEO roles, according to sources at the bank, reports Charlie Gasparino, lamenting what he calls a politically-based attack. The key may end up being BlackRock - a major shareholder whose CEO Larry Fink also happens to be chairman. Fink, however, has his eye on the Treasury Secretary's office and may "throw Dimon under the bus" to advance that goal. [View news story]
Yeah and the links comes from the NY Post, a branch of the political right, Fox news style.
Reality is that Dimon has gone through his cycle. He did well during the 2008 fiasco, but since then he hasn't done so well. The whale trade really hurt his image.
ARM Holdings: The Real Reason That It Ends Badly [View article]
Many people here underestimate the value proposition of a tablet based on windows 8. They continue to be infatuated by the current situation. They haven't noticed that many windows applications don't run yet in the tablets provided by Apple and Samsung but they do run on windows 8.
Many customers including myself have bought tablets and phones but haven't replaced the "home computer" yet. the reason is that it is still practical. You still need something you can use to write a letter or put together a spreadsheet. a 5% increase in market share shows that the tablet actually is filing up that void. I myself find interested now in replacing my old desktop with a newer version of a laptop that i can carry as a tablet but that i can use as my home computer comfortably.
Am i alone on this situation? i don't think so. Many people might now decide to replace their old machines with the new hybrid version that can just run my old programs without any drama. Resistance to change can still be a big winner for Wintel.
I think Krzanich is the right choice. A numbers guy would have tried to please the market making bold choices for the short term. This is a decision that shows the board resolution to think longer term. Opposite to the disastrous decisions made by outsiders CEOs brought to HP in order to pull their end year compensation up.
Like the article points out, Intel knows it needs time to fight for the mobile market. It wont be easy and it is unclear whether it will be able to gain complete leadership. So increasing their foundry business will provide additional revenue that will allow the company to continue investing for the long term in their manufacturing muscle. It is certain however, that it will take over a substantial share of the mobile market in the next two years.
They just took about 5% of the tablet market in the last year. That may not seem impressive but it shows that the Wintel alliance is coming back roaring. History sometimes repeats itself and this time it might be no different. We have Samsung and Apple with their proprietary systems competing against of an entire ecosystem of companies. Those companies might be a little down because of the slowing demand, but they still have a huge financial muscle by-product of a business that still throws a lot of cash flow. They innovate and twist their products in many more possible ways that individual companies can do. They leverage their existing customer base to acquire advantage on the buyers decisions.
I see the mobile share of Wintel going up to at least to 20% a year from now. Of course the big test will be the Holiday season, there we will see if they can really break Samsung-Apple momentum.
April Nonfarm Payrolls:+165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
The numbers are good no matter how Fox pundits try to twist it into a negative. Employment keeps growing at a stable pace. The economy keeps going in the same direction despite march numbers, which by the way were revised upward.
The 0.2 can be just a by product of statistics. Blaming Obamacare has no substance on it. Besides, when Obamacare kicks on January people are going to love it. So stop whining, it is here to stay.
More on the big drop in jobless claims: At 324K, it's the lowest level since January 2008. The 4-week moving average fell 16K to 342,250. S&P 500 futures remain +0.5%. Treasury prices slip, TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2% premarket. [View news story]
Excellent news. This could be an inflection point for the economy to finally start growing
Intel: Earnings Call, Intel Tell Us About The Plan [View article]
That's the approach that can satisfy Wall Street but not one that makes a company lasts. Yes, you can do as it was on HP by Fiorina and cut any long term expense to boost your numbers and get better price for your options. However, for the long term you will cripple your company like happened to HP.
More from the minutes on the March FOMC meeting: Several members say if labor market conditions improve as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by the end of the year. The consensus projection is that inflation will be subdued through 2015. [View news story]
I think the market believes that support from the Fed is not anymore necessary to keep the economy going.
The point is not that the graph will look the way it looked during the bubble. Nobody wants to see that again. The recovery goes in the fact that houses are being traded again in big numbers and that there are more starts in contruction that there had been for years.
If you are looking in those graphs above for a spike, of course you wont find one. But if you look at what the graph should look like, you need to look between the years 1980 and 2000. A steady climb of prices with inflation. That's what we want to see again.
If you proyect a trend line from those years into the "treading" part of the graph you complain about today, you will see that the trend line falls around this area. So, now we are coming back to normal conditions, in which the housing market was fed by demand of families with average salaries, instead of being inflated by Wall Street.
A simplistic vision of two graphs will never give you enough information to draw meaningful conclusions.
20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
This article is a laundry list of carefully pickedbad news. There is no context in which to see if the "bad news" are balanced by the "good news".
Yes, there are companies that are going bankrupt, but there are many other that are having the best time ever.
Yes, freight volume have come down after going up steadily for two years. You cannot expect something like that to keep going straight up forever. Besides, one or two points dont make a trend.
He doesnt mention the fact that the housing market is recovering. Sales are stronger that havent been in years, contruction also. I guess those good news are not suitable to the author's picture of a bleak future coming upon us.
I would like more analysis and less chiken little kind of blogs.
I dont think it will be easy, but i am confident that Intel will start taking a good share of the tablet market. It is enough to see the new offers that HP, Dell and Lenovo have out there. Tablets with respectable capabilities starting at $430. And prices can only come down as they start selling in volume. I think 2013 is going to see a turn around and show that the announcements that PC was dead were premature. It doesnt mean that Intel is going to beat Apple and Samsung, but at least the bleeding is going to stop. After that I think Apple is going to have the same problem it had before: a closed technology that cannot compete with an entire echosystem attacking from all directions.
About the phones, Intel will have a harder time. However, as the author says, they made a smart move taking on low end phones. That market will explode this year and next. By the end of this year Intel will have LTE and can start competing in the high end space also. It will take longer and it will be harder, but Intel eventually will take a big market share in phones also.
FOMC Announcement: No changes, with $85B/month in asset purchases and ZIRP remaining the monetary law of the land. New FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed chief Esther George, replaces the Richmond Fed's Jeff Lacker as a dissenting vote. The Fed blames a pause in the recovery on weather and other transitory factors. [View news story]
It is not the weather. Dont you read the news? it was a decrease in 22% in military spending
More on Q4 GDP: Defense spending falls 22% - the biggest drop in 40 years - leading real federal spending -15%. State/local spending -0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures +2.2% vs. 1.6% in Q3. Nonresidential fixed investment +8.4% vs. +1.8%. Stock futures dipped and then bounced on the soft print. as traders look at calendars and realize we're halfway to 2013 Q2. (full report) [View news story]
Well, we wanted reduction in spending there you go. I think that's a positive. That extra money we are not spending bombing the Taliban can use at home to build schools and help small business.
Jobs Shortage Equals A Poor Economic Outlook [View article]
ECRI has been calling for a recession since 2011. No recession so far. The economy is growing, jobs have been added and then they suddenly say that a recession STARTED last July?
I bet if Romney has won they would be saying that a boom was coming,
As an investor you cannot allow people like this dictate your thoughts. If the call for recession in 2011 was dubious this call for a recession that already started while the economy is growing is utterly ridiculous.
I mean, you can be a sore loser after an election, but this is just whining.
3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
The author says that the stimulus money has accomplished nothing in solving unemployment by looking at the graph of the employment participation at both extremes of the last four years.
He conveniently overlooks the fact that hasn't it been for the stimulus unemployment had gone much farther. Also he overlooks the fact that the unemployment has already come down from its highest at 10.5 percent.
It is easy to find arguments for one's point when you overlook all the facts that are not convenient to what you want to point out.
Stocks: Did A New Bull Market Begin On Monday? [View article]
Well, i understand that real estate markets are localized. However, the west coast (including california) and the southwest are not small areas. We are talking about a big chunk of the country here.
What i know is that property values are not falling anymore. They are at the worst stable or increasing. You can see that just by checking a few graphs.
There's a "real chance" Jamie Dimon (JPM +1%) may have to drop his dual chairman and CEO roles, according to sources at the bank, reports Charlie Gasparino, lamenting what he calls a politically-based attack. The key may end up being BlackRock - a major shareholder whose CEO Larry Fink also happens to be chairman. Fink, however, has his eye on the Treasury Secretary's office and may "throw Dimon under the bus" to advance that goal. [View news story]
Reality is that Dimon has gone through his cycle. He did well during the 2008 fiasco, but since then he hasn't done so well. The whale trade really hurt his image.
ARM Holdings: The Real Reason That It Ends Badly [View article]
Many customers including myself have bought tablets and phones but haven't replaced the "home computer" yet. the reason is that it is still practical. You still need something you can use to write a letter or put together a spreadsheet. a 5% increase in market share shows that the tablet actually is filing up that void. I myself find interested now in replacing my old desktop with a newer version of a laptop that i can carry as a tablet but that i can use as my home computer comfortably.
Am i alone on this situation? i don't think so. Many people might now decide to replace their old machines with the new hybrid version that can just run my old programs without any drama. Resistance to change can still be a big winner for Wintel.
Intel Makes The Right CEO Choice [View article]
Like the article points out, Intel knows it needs time to fight for the mobile market. It wont be easy and it is unclear whether it will be able to gain complete leadership. So increasing their foundry business will provide additional revenue that will allow the company to continue investing for the long term in their manufacturing muscle. It is certain however, that it will take over a substantial share of the mobile market in the next two years.
They just took about 5% of the tablet market in the last year. That may not seem impressive but it shows that the Wintel alliance is coming back roaring. History sometimes repeats itself and this time it might be no different. We have Samsung and Apple with their proprietary systems competing against of an entire ecosystem of companies. Those companies might be a little down because of the slowing demand, but they still have a huge financial muscle by-product of a business that still throws a lot of cash flow. They innovate and twist their products in many more possible ways that individual companies can do. They leverage their existing customer base to acquire advantage on the buyers decisions.
I see the mobile share of Wintel going up to at least to 20% a year from now. Of course the big test will be the Holiday season, there we will see if they can really break Samsung-Apple momentum.
April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
The 0.2 can be just a by product of statistics. Blaming Obamacare has no substance on it. Besides, when Obamacare kicks on January people are going to love it. So stop whining, it is here to stay.
More on the big drop in jobless claims: At 324K, it's the lowest level since January 2008. The 4-week moving average fell 16K to 342,250. S&P 500 futures remain +0.5%. Treasury prices slip, TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2% premarket. [View news story]
Intel: Earnings Call, Intel Tell Us About The Plan [View article]
More from the minutes on the March FOMC meeting: Several members say if labor market conditions improve as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by the end of the year. The consensus projection is that inflation will be subdued through 2015. [View news story]
Your Housing 'Recovery' In Charts [View article]
If you are looking in those graphs above for a spike, of course you wont find one. But if you look at what the graph should look like, you need to look between the years 1980 and 2000. A steady climb of prices with inflation. That's what we want to see again.
If you proyect a trend line from those years into the "treading" part of the graph you complain about today, you will see that the trend line falls around this area. So, now we are coming back to normal conditions, in which the housing market was fed by demand of families with average salaries, instead of being inflated by Wall Street.
A simplistic vision of two graphs will never give you enough information to draw meaningful conclusions.
20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
Yes, there are companies that are going bankrupt, but there are many other that are having the best time ever.
Yes, freight volume have come down after going up steadily for two years. You cannot expect something like that to keep going straight up forever. Besides, one or two points dont make a trend.
He doesnt mention the fact that the housing market is recovering. Sales are stronger that havent been in years, contruction also. I guess those good news are not suitable to the author's picture of a bleak future coming upon us.
I would like more analysis and less chiken little kind of blogs.
Why Intel Will Continue To Succeed [View article]
About the phones, Intel will have a harder time. However, as the author says, they made a smart move taking on low end phones. That market will explode this year and next. By the end of this year Intel will have LTE and can start competing in the high end space also. It will take longer and it will be harder, but Intel eventually will take a big market share in phones also.
FOMC Announcement: No changes, with $85B/month in asset purchases and ZIRP remaining the monetary law of the land. New FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed chief Esther George, replaces the Richmond Fed's Jeff Lacker as a dissenting vote. The Fed blames a pause in the recovery on weather and other transitory factors. [View news story]
More on Q4 GDP: Defense spending falls 22% - the biggest drop in 40 years - leading real federal spending -15%. State/local spending -0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures +2.2% vs. 1.6% in Q3. Nonresidential fixed investment +8.4% vs. +1.8%. Stock futures dipped and then bounced on the soft print. as traders look at calendars and realize we're halfway to 2013 Q2. (full report) [View news story]
Jobs Shortage Equals A Poor Economic Outlook [View article]
I bet if Romney has won they would be saying that a boom was coming,
As an investor you cannot allow people like this dictate your thoughts. If the call for recession in 2011 was dubious this call for a recession that already started while the economy is growing is utterly ridiculous.
I mean, you can be a sore loser after an election, but this is just whining.
3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
He conveniently overlooks the fact that hasn't it been for the stimulus unemployment had gone much farther. Also he overlooks the fact that the unemployment has already come down from its highest at 10.5 percent.
It is easy to find arguments for one's point when you overlook all the facts that are not convenient to what you want to point out.
Stocks: Did A New Bull Market Begin On Monday? [View article]
What i know is that property values are not falling anymore. They are at the worst stable or increasing. You can see that just by checking a few graphs.