thang

Comments on James Quinn's 'What Will This Crisis Lead to?'

There are many factors today which did not exist during the Depression (why the capital "D"?). They cannot be divorced from events in this first decade of the 21st Century. But no one is factoring them in at all. They are, in my humble perception:
1. The depletion of fossil fuels and the failure to replace them with equivalent sources of ready convenient and portable energy.
2. The depletion of surface deposits (relatively speaking) of copper and many other elements fundamental to society as it is.
3. The enormous wriggling and logarithmically-growing population of our species.
4. The magnitude and power of the business bloc which has permeated every level of society in every part of this planet.
5. The change in human psyche which no longer accepts needless waste of the type driven by the major motor vehicle manufacturers (replace your motor car every 3 years so that Detroit can continue to pump out large metal boxes with more luxuries inside than the average home).
6. The existence of a generation, perhaps two, which has *never* known hardship of any kind, including economic, financial, vocational, medical and many others.
7. The advent of science and knowledge of such amazing proportion that the fairyland of all the diverse heavens, nirvanas, valhallas, gods, demons and hells has been squeezed out by human rationality.
8. The lack of replacement of all the crutches referred to in point (7) above.
9. And, debatably, the lack of a decent sized war or conflict which in the past has without fail propelled society, globally, into a different paradigm. We haven't had one of those since WW2, and that one propelled us into the paradigm of greed and consumption.

So, applying old gauze to a new wound will never work. A new solution which will cause great unhappiness is the only solution, because things will never ever return to the old ways. Lets see if Obama is the man. Personally, I think he doesn't have it and we will need to wait and look elsewhere for the Messiah (meant in strictly non-religious terms of course).

Here's How This Week Could Unfold

I did Investment Analysis in third year Uni, and it was all random walk theory, multilinear regression, efficient markets and zero sum game, and all that has gone out the window. It all actually depends on greed, risk aversion and insider information. What is happening is a whole series of catastrophes, stuck lending, valueless derivatives crystalizing into market value, collateral disappearing, banks going bust, inflation combined with low interest rates, and general mathematical chaos.

What a bang with which to start the new century.

Best of luck to everyone in our uncertain future...

The $60 Trillion Nightmare of Credit Default Swaps

You ever worked for a Big 4 accounting firm? It certainly doesn't pay as a Partner to clash too violently with your clients. I think this is a great article and well written in particular. This is the abyss on the edge of which we stand.

Is the Peak Oil Theory Valid?

Holy sheeit! You guys are Americans right? Thick as bottled pigshit, as we say in this resources centre of the world (Western Australia)! I can understand exactly why your empire is in fall. There are two theories of heavy hydrocarbon creation, the abiotic and the decomposition. Abiotic has not been borne out in any way (except the Russians are using some abiotic theories apparently to find oil in strange places, such as on basalt) and the vast preponderance is towards decomposition of biomatter during warm aeons in specific places (porous rock) about quarter of a billion years ago. There is not once instance of this process being observed. The original poster on this thread is so goddamned thick he believes (note you idiot, :believes:) that it is not only taking place now, it is taking place potentially at the rate or more than the rate of 85 million barrels per day (the current unchanged-since-2005 rate of depletion). Yet THERE IS NOT ONE OBSERVABLE INSTANCE EVER OF OIL BEING CREATED IN NATURE!!! NOT ONE OUNCE!!! Jesus, are you stupid.

This guy really believes this, without evidence. Then, some other idiot comes to the thick party with this comment "It would be a waist of e-mail space to argue with someone soooooo misinformed and illogical". Its "waste" mate, not "waist". How can you expect anyone to take you or your comments seriously? And, is "soooooo" more adverbial than "so"? I certainly don't get that one.

Solar is bull because its too expensive in terms of capital expenditure and its return is not portable like oil. There is nothing like oil for portability and severability, as in, you don't need a power cord or to be in daytime. It contains more ergs/calories than just about anything for its volume. Unfortunately, it took a few hundred million years to make what we have pissed out in a bare 100 years, and its hitting us in the hip pocket.