user1010101

Why I'm Bullish on GameStop

I have two issues with this company: 1) is there a terminal value - i.e. will online distribution slowly steal revenues from the retail outlets and 2) the accounting applied to new vs used game sales.

I don't believe I need to elaborate on the first issue - it has been well discussed and blogged about on seekingalpha.

I do however think there are some issues with the accounting at GME - specifically with regards to gross margins. The company seperates both new and used game gross margins but does not explain how they value used game inventory (other than they have a "proprietary system") or how they account for trade-in's.

For example, if I walk into game stop and trade in a used game (say I get $10) and then go buy a new game (costs $50) I pay a net $40. Assuming game stop gets a 20% margin on the $50 price point, they would net $0 - i.e. no margin ((50*.2) -10 = 0). However, as it currently stands, i believe the company records the used game margin independent of the trade in that occured in the transaction. Instead, the company includes that $10 trade in as an inventory purchase (i.e. dr. inventory cr. cash).

I am concerned that this company is buying its sales and may have a large build up of used inventory. The company refuses to offer up the value of its used inventory - almost every year we have seen inventory levels rise (recently faster than sales). I think this is cause for concern and investors should be cautious on the name.

STEC Revisited: Will It Go from Good to Great?

Sorry GARP - but you have last too much credibility. Anything you say now just sounds like made up stories (i.e. your belief that EMC is pushing SSD's by offering incentives). I think you need to step back and recognized everything you initially thought was incorrect - it is clear SSD adoption is not taking place as rapidly as you thought. HDD storage is cheap and short stroking drives to increase performance is understood by IT departments. It will take time before comapnies decide to switch over to a new device - prices in $/Gb will need to come down in order to convince people.

I am glad you have suggestions for the company but you should have presented all of these risks in your initial reports. Clearly, there were conflicts of interest on the board and management was weak.

You became too attached to STEC and didn't think objectively.

STEC's Promising Future – Part II

I guess we all now know where GARP was getting his borrow from.

Apples to Apples: Will History Repeat Itself as Android Gains on the iPhone?

Bruce,

Nothing more to say other than that this was an excellent post. I love it when people provide the historical perspective!

The commentators above me are clearly consumers of the Apple fad - which shows you how powerful this companies marketing machine has become. Regardless of what happens to Apple, increased competition in this industry will only create better mobile devices for all of us!

On EESAT and Energy Storage Opportunities on the Smart Grid

hey John, was anyone at this conference from EEstor or Zenn Motoros?

Where Is the Gaming Industry Headed?

Eskin,

I agre with you completely. The move to an online distribution platform is still years away for a variety of reasons:

1) carrier networks are already over loaded with data demand coming from smart phones - there is no way they are capable of handling HD game streaming
2) consumer preferences have not changed in such a way that they want to buy/rent a game online. Many games have reply value or, at the very least, resale value.
3) game publishers are not going to turn down a free opportunity to distribute their content but none of them have commited to supporting platforms (like onlive) financially

Online gaming has been around for a long time - mmorpg's have been very popular for years. The fact that we have just seen 1 generation of online gaming (xbox and ps3) shows you how slow the industry is moving.


On Oct 20 10:13 PM Eskin wrote:

> Wow! VERY Cool article. I wonder how accurate that Apple daily revenue
> potential is because seems like a major cash cow right now... esPECIALLY
> as Apple gets deeper and deeper into the remote gaming market.<br/>
>
> Also, as a gamer during my entire life, I would find it VERY surprising
> if the OnLive idea actually succeeded. I'm an avid believer that
> the future generation of gaming is online with other players (much
> related to social media today, and is already here with XBox Live),
> but serious gamers really don't care about having, as you mentioned,
> "real estate" in their living room. If the system is worth it, like
> Ps3 or whatever comes out next, the graphics and speed will justify
> having the tower in their living room. Who cares that it's there?
> A majority of controllers nowadays are wireless anyway. The extent
> of problems (slow, huge controller, always need to be online) with
> an always on-line system will definitely not be worth it compared
> to the benefits (just not having the system there).
>
> Check out my blog at www.youngandinvested.com

GameStop Director Leonard Riggio Shows Us the Future of Gaming

Gaucho420,

I am not sure I agree with you that hardcore gamers download games at mid-night since not all games hit XBL before being released at a retail level - this is up to the distributor. As well, with the size of games getting larger, a 60gb HD is worthless. You cannot simply d/l an unlimited amount of games - at some point you run out of space. The idea behind the HDD was not to convert customers to an online distribution model - it is meant for updates, upgrades and game packs.

Finally, if everyone were to jump on to d/l a game (like you do) you would not have the game d/l by the following morning - servers are not capable of handling those loads. So, for now, be happy your are one of the few taking advantage of online distribution.


On Oct 15 04:41 PM Gaucho420 wrote:

> Dedicated gamers will get their games faster by downloading. I have
> XBL and if a game came out at midnight online, I'd have XBL downloaded
> overnight and have it ready for use in the morning. That's much faster
> than waiting for a retail store to open the next day.
>
> I go to store now, such as this week to pick up NBA2k10, because
> I wanted the anniversay edition. But had it been a normal non-anniversary
> year and had the option been there to download it straight to the
> hard-drive from XBL, I probably would've opted for that.
>
> I think a bigger argument agaisnt downloads is 1) the added cost
> of a hard drive to store them (especially when you get to the full
> sized games), 2) the lack of a manual and 3) no trade in value on
> downloads.
>
> I know quite a few dedicated gamers who don't download that many
> games, because they dont' feel like wasting money on a hard-drive.
> And that's the over-riding reason, plus the trade-in value of discs.
>
>
> For the 360, retailers should thank MSFT for making the hard drives
> propriatery and super expensive, as it keeps a large number of gamers
> hooked to retailers, as nobody wants to pay MSFT ridiculous price
> on its 60 gig or 120 gig drives.
>
> I have paid for the 120 gig drive, because I can afford it, but most
> can and most simply don't even trie demos, movies or anything else,
> as the hard-drive on the 360 is cost-prohibitive.
>
> I know the PS3 can use any drive you choose, but even at bottom barrell
> prices, it still cost money.
>
> So in my humble opinion, online gaming will be restricted (for a
> tiny while) by the cost of extra storage. I have seen this to be
> true across my gaming friends and I know a boatload of all ages,
> sex and income types. Gamers want to play...paying for a hard-drive
> is simply an unwanted hassle at the current prices.

GameStop Director Leonard Riggio Shows Us the Future of Gaming

Bruce,

Could you please provide an outlook for the video game industry over the next year?

Although I agree with your general coments regarding "long term" industry direction, I think that your arguements have little application in the short term. Products such as the PSP GO have not been given raving reviews specifically because it is an all digital product (gamers can't easily move there existing games over).

Also, I don't beleive the nintendo would support (and infact resist) moving to a fully online distribution platform. Children still like going to the store and purchasing games. Similarly, "gamers" prefer to purchase the game as soon as it hits the shelf - who wants to wait for delivery. Gamestop allows preordering which targets a particular customer that will likley never move online for distribution.

I would find it very usefull to hear your critisism - since I am bullish on gamestop due to valuation as well as environment. Many major titles are coming out, gamestop is running at depressed sales/sq. ft. and continues to expand their store base. At 9x earnings, >10% FCF yeild - i believe this thing could be a home run.

Thanks

Ryan

Promising Future for STEC

Ickabod,

Sorry to burst your "bear" bubble but I am afraid you are the one who made the mistake.

1. Go to EMC's web site and browse around - you will find a large slide show that explains the benifits of using STEC's drive

2. Go to IBM's website and you will see that they now have the highest performance arrays in the industry (due to STEC drives) and it only accounts for 8% of system costs.

3. You compare regular SSD's to enterprise class SSD's! It would be the same mistake if you compared a regular HDD to enterprise class HDD. Of course the numbers don't add up if you are comparing the wrong things!

4. If it makes so little sense to use SSD technology, where are all companies introducing some type of SSD drive in 2010 that is enterprise class.

5. Do some research on virtualization, bandwidth traffic, telecom backhaul problems etc and you will see that SSD being used in Tier0 of the storage array will become an essential technology.

6. Don't refer to data the is over 1 year old when even STEC's SSD's just recently were qualified with EMC - your data is irrelevant.

Promising Future for STEC

Could you actually provide some links to confirm your comments - where did STEC lose to Intel???

Promising Future for STEC

Do you happen to have any expectations are assumptions regarding margin stability?

Promising Future for STEC

another great article GARP

Dispelling the Samsung NAND worry - Reiterate BUY on STEC

GARP, I completely agree with you and I have done my own work and modeling on the company.

I was curious as to your back ground and how you have such insight into this company/market.

Thanks

-Ryan

New Flyer Industries: Liquidity Issues Not Expected but Possible

there is no corporate restructure..... What are you talking about?

On the Future of Networks and Moving Data Centers

By the way Mark - Your datacenterpulse website is great - love the information you make available here. Thankyou for opening that up to those interested in learning/keep up to date with data center technology!