dancing diva

9 Comments

    • Have We Bottomed Yet? [view article]
      You make too many blanket statements - especially being short or picking a top on energy stocks. There are many out there where valuations are still cheap, especially in the service sector.

      Additionally, you suggest picking bottoms in beaten up stocks because you have no confidence in the stock markets bottom and think they would fall less? If you have no confidence, just stay out.

      Remember, traders/investors who try to pick the top or bottom of the market are called heroes - because they are the first to perish.

      PS - I am long crox (and have been buying it for the past three weeks), but on valuation. There are plenty of cheap plays around. Rather than this inane article, do you homework and don't waste our time with stupid generalities.       Apr 09 12:04 AM
    • Stock Valuations On the Rise [view article]
      Your P/E exercise is misleading and therefore worthless since it conveys the idea the stock market is expensive.

      The s&p p/e is high because the "e" in both the financial and consumer discretionary areas have fallen, and these two sectors make up about 29% of the s&p (as of Sept 2007 although it's probably lower today). When one takes a look at the other sectors, where earnings are actually growing because they are heavily tied to the world export market, p/e's are not particularly high on a historical basis and in most cases are lower than a year ago. This was especially true before the latest rally.
      Apr 06 12:55 AM
    • New York Times Reports the Recession is Here: What a Shock! [view article]
      I agree with you. There are plenty of bargains around that have started to bottom out.

      I ascribe to the principles "when they're crying you should be buying" and "selling when they are yelling". I've been buying but plan to sell some call options on the next rally - just in case.

      There are lots of tears flowing now. Perhaps someone should come up with a kleenex index as a way to interpret the bottom.

      Mar 15 08:20 PM
    • Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic! [view article]
      Barry, you could still be right. You never said how the market would get to the mid-year points, did you? Mar 15 08:12 PM
    • Wheat Boom an Indicator of Inflation [view article]
      Malarky. Wheat's rise is not a sign of inflation. It's a sign the weather has been lousy AND more importantly, the biofuels push has gotten out of hand. In the US as well as many other countries the use of alternative fuels made from grains and vegetable oils has been LEGISLATED. This is an unnatural act. Get rid of these legislated programs and grain prices will be significantly lower within a year.

      Grains, feeds and vegetable oils should be fuel for the body, not cars.       Mar 10 01:58 AM
    • Bear Stearns Looking Decidedly Cheap [view article]
      You'd be right if that was actually BSC's book value. But how in the heck can you determine that?

      That argument was also made with the homebuilders several months ago. Look how well that worked.
      Jan 09 09:45 PM
    • Technical No-No: S&P 500's 50-DMA Close to Crossing Below Its 200-DMA [view article]
      So, out of the 36 crossovers, 19 were lower a month and a quarter later. That's little better than tossing a coin. And I should care about this? Did you even notice it seemed to work much better prior to 1970 than after? Perhaps, like everything else, when people "gamble on it" it doesn't pay off? Dec 21 03:18 AM
    • Did I Just See a Dead Cat Bounce? [view article]
      Mr Ehrenberg - congratulations on spouting conventional wisdom. How about a little deeper thought?

      No one denies there is a problem in either the credit market or the economy. In fact, the market had been voting with its pocketbook all month, with the downside accelerating after the Fed's statement "the risks are balanced". Well, you and I and everyone else except the Fed realized the risks were definitely not balanced. However, this weeks realization that the Rip Van Winkle Fed had finally woke up gave the market a reason to rally for the first time in a while. Like an alcoholic can't be cured until he acknowledges his dependency, neither can the economy be cured until the Fed realizes there is a problem.

      Will the economy be cured by a 1/4 or 1/2 point rate cut? No. Will I short this market? No way! The reason is that most stocks are not overpriced and with the Fed working with rather than against the economy there is more hope for the future. Sentiment is far more important than the short term gdp level for the direction of the stock market.       Dec 01 07:01 PM
    • Has Anything Really Changed in the Last Two Days? [view article]
      You miss the point. The market bounced not because it thinks a 1/4 or 1/2 point will make a difference, but because the Fed finally acknowledged there was a problem. Only then can there be a solution. Prior to this week it looked like the Fed members were completely oblivious to the issues with both the credit markets and the economy.

      The market needs a proactive Fed not a reactive Fed. This week gave the first glimmer of hope it will move in that direction. As long as this becomes a reality stocks will be well supported. You forget this is not like 2000 when the market multiple was nearly double the current level. There is no reason for a stock market collapse unless there is an economic one. And there will not be one if the Fed and US gov't do their jobs.       Dec 01 06:36 PM
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