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dancing diva

dancing diva
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  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    I agree RAS as long as you have a long holding period.
    May 17, 2015. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    TF17 - I'd qualify that and say whenever you have excess cash and the 10 year bond is less than or equal to 4% (or you can lock in a 10 year CD at 4% or more). I conservatively estimate the 10 year return on JNJ (price appreciation and dividends) to be at least 5% per year, so at/above a 10 year of 4% I might consider a bond or CD depending what the p/e of JNJ is at that time.
    May 17, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    Mike - shame on me too. I started buying JNJ at the lofty price of $62 back in May 2012; it's now my largest position and I'd love to add more if it ever drops (last purchase in Feb @ $99).

    Here's the way I view it. What are my alternatives to cash? Taking a 10 year time frame and making very conservative assumptions that eps and dividends grow by 5%/year and that in 10 years the p/e is 14, I arrive my 100/share investment in JNJ is worth around $170 in 10 years time. Where else am I almost guaranteed that kind of safe return?

    Sure there are stocks with better growth characteristics NOW and better yields NOW, but can I count on them? JNJ is 11% of my holdings and at the right levels will continue to add. I would love to see a decline but given that it's trading better lately, it may not happen.
    May 17, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    Jeff - FYI - Almost all the weakness in gasoline prices in California have been erased largely due to refinery problems; they are back up near last summers level - the highest in the nation (and that includes Hawaii and Alaska). While only one state, California has a disproportionate number of drivers - almost 12% of all registered drivers in the US. I was shocked to pay $3.96/gal last week for regular unleaded.

    I'm also surprised there was no mention of European bonds are the reason for US bonds falling since they have been more or less trading in tandem for the past year to 18 months. US rates fell for most of last year despite better US economic data due to falling European rates, now it looks like they are rising for the same reason. German 10 year bunds got down to the ridiculous level of about 0.07% in mid April - around the time Bill Gross said it was the greatest short ever - and bounced to over 0.7% last week.
    May 17, 2015. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does The Anadarko Project Mean For Chicago Bridge & Iron? [View article]
    It does not. The company anticipates they will be buying back a significant amount of stock when cash flow improves later this year and next, but were not buying back stock recently (see Q4 2014 & Q1 2015 transcripts).
    May 16, 2015. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    KO is more expensive than JNJ. If you specifically want safety and yield over 3% and long term dividend growth, I'd go with Pfizer - pfe.
    May 16, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    'If we have a major correction in the S&P 500 in the next year or two, a correction in the range of 15% to 30%, the price of Johnson & Johnson will fall substantially.

    I am not buying JNJ at this time. "

    BuyandHold 2012

    Then I assume you are not buying anything, because that logic can be used for the entire market. It is not specific to JNJ.
    May 16, 2015. 08:58 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron Still Undervalued? [View article]
    6228371 -I don't care for commodities since I don't think the world is in that great a shape. I was a buyer of BHP at the beginning of the year (sold out half at $52) and own AA, but I would have expected by now better global growth stats than we've seen given the large drops in interest rates (and Central Bank accomodation) and the reduction in oil prices. I think most of the commodity gains have already been seen.

    And I realize gild and san aren't commodity related - that's why I wrote "for the most part". BTW - I like gild; have no opinion on san.
    May 13, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stress Test For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    "Suppose the value of your dividend growth stock portfolio was $1,000,000 on January 1, 2015. You are reliant on the income being generated from this portfolio in order to fund your retirement, but you also cannot afford to lose the principal value of your investment. "

    Eric - this is a pretty silly premise since anyone involved in the stock market (dgi or another type) must realize that from time to time the market experiences severe weakness. If you can't afford to lose any of your principle you don't belong in the stock market.
    May 10, 2015. 01:04 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stock: Affirming My $140 Target By The End Of May [View article]
    "Apple will also likely be buying shares heavily prior to ex-dividend date, thus avoiding paying out $.52 per share. "

    Huh? The payment of a dividend can never be avoided unless perhaps if a company magically goes bankrupt between the declaration date and the payment date.
    May 10, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron Still Undervalued? [View article]
    Thanks for the list, but for the most part I don't agree those stocks are compelling buys. For the most part they are too heavily levered to commodities.
    May 7, 2015. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron Still Undervalued? [View article]
    So which stocks do you consider a "more compelling buys" ? I'm having a difficult time finding those.
    May 7, 2015. 09:04 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron Still Undervalued? [View article]
    You have no concept of value. When CBI was at $35 there were huge fears of much lower future earnings due to the oil market collapse. With that no longer a worry and a couple of decent earnings report under its belt, CBI looks attractive at current levels.
    May 7, 2015. 06:19 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hope Is Not A Strategy, Before Investing Have A Precise Calculation Of Return In Mind [View article]
    You might think it would be a "piece of cake" but it wouldn't be. That's because the level of interest rates and whether multiples are rising or falling are so important. Knowing earnings would definitely help with relative value, but not absolute value.
    May 3, 2015. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These HealthCare REITs Are Ready For Buying After Up To A 20% Pullback [View article]
    Adam - at end 2013 the stock could be purchased for around $56 when the 10 year was at 3% and the just declared new distribution level was (announced Dec 13) 72.5 cents/qtr. That worked out to a 5.18% yield. Assuming we again see a 5% yield that would equate to $63 per share. So yes, a 10% price decline is possible if the 10 year rallies to 3%, but given global yields are so much lower than in Dec 2013, that 3% 10 year looks very unlikely. Note the stock found support at a 4.75% yield ($61/share) in September 2014 when the 10 year topped out near 2.6%.

    I was a light buyer Thursday at $69 but won't make any large purchases unless the stock moves down near $65 where there is trend line support.
    May 2, 2015. 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment