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dancing diva

dancing diva
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    Jeff - the Beloit list brought back memories, particularly #24
    24. When they were born, cell phone usage was so expensive that families only used their large phones, usually in cars, for emergencies.

    When I began college in 1973 the cost of long distance calls were so expensive - a 3 minute call on Sunday afternoon (one of the cheapest times) cost more than two gallons of gas, and my mom would say after a few minutes - we better get off since this is costing a lot of money. I found this short history on the web from 1970.

    This week I learned that in addition to all my gtc orders (most were filled Monday morning - a few were gifts) I should also have in place options orders. It may have done no good since the spreads were so wide and they may not have been executed anyway, but it couldn't have hurt.
    Aug 30, 2015. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Did You Freak This Week? [View article]
    frzmln - the trick is to take emotions out of it. Just have good until cancelled orders in below the market at levels you really want to own. I got about 80% of my orders filled at levels that surprised me - some put in many months ago, others over last weekend.

    Have a plan and stick to it. Whether this was an opportunity or there's more pain to come remains to be seen. But if you never buy anything when the opportunity strikes, you'll be forever chasing the market or in cash - which in the long run doesn't do much good.

    But don't feel too bad; we all go through a learning curve.
    Aug 29, 2015. 09:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not A Game The Federal Reserve Wants [View article]
    The Fed should go ahead with the rate hike. If the economy can't handle it we have even bigger problems than the stock market. And just maybe that would wake up Washington since they've been totally reliant on the Fed.
    Aug 29, 2015. 07:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Order Drawbacks [View article]
    Good point. I've personally never used the stop limit order, but I imagine it could easily happen as you wrote. However, there's never a guarantee the stock will roar back either. The stop limit, while not ideal, is better than nothing since at worst you'll get out at a level you previously deemed acceptable.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Felix Zulauf: Bottom isn't in yet [View news story]
    Great pick, bbro - but unfortunately Zulauf isn't always wrong.
    Aug 29, 2015. 02:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Order Drawbacks [View article]
    I don't know about other firms, but Fidelity has an order called a "stop limit" in which you specify both your stop and the lowest price you will accept. This gets you out of your position, but not at any price and it prevents you from getting reamed in the case of a flash crash.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe? [View article]
    I managed to buy a couple stocks near the lows but only because I had placed gtc orders (in both cases many months ago). I think it's always good to have some low good till cancelled (gtc) orders in for occasions such as Monday for companies you really want to own. Odds are they will expire without fills (they usually do) after a year (or however long you specify) but it never hurts to have some in.

    Of course, the odds are high that an occasion like Monday's flash crash won't happen again for a long time. The reason is that more people will now have those gtc orders in place and the stock won't crash as there will be more buyers on the way down.
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global rout continues as Asian markets open lower [View news story]
    Cash devalued? How much will your cash be "devalued" if you sit on it for a short while?
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:38 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of Something Big? [View article]
    You are wrong about the p/e levels. Currently it's higher than at the top of the 2007 market. When you look at full year 2008 it's already reflecting the steep drop in earnings. At the end of 2007 analysts, not knowing there would be a recession, had quite high estimates. They didn't start cutting their forecasts until long after the market peaked. You can see that in the chart on page one.

    I agree with Jeff that currently it doesn't appear as if there will be a recession. But the most reliable indicators only predict conditions out six months at the most.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of Something Big? [View article]
    Agree global deleveraging hasn't occurred, in fact leverage has increased since 2007. Below is a link to a McKinsey report on the topic.
    Aug 23, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Single Best Strategy To Buy A Correction [View article]
    The problem is that you don't know whether this will be a correction or morph into a bear market recession (right now it doesn't look like it, but who knows what the data will show in a few months). As such when I sell puts on declines I make sure I really want the stock at that level. Eg, I know JNJ's dividend yield rarely gets to 3.5% (barely touched 4% at it's depth in 2009) so I'd feel very comfortable selling Jan 85 puts on weakness in the stock when volatility is elevated. I have no clue where there's support for more cyclical stocks (like an Apple or Deere); as a result I rarely sell puts in them.
    Aug 21, 2015. 09:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rebuilding The Wall Of Worry [View article]
    Jeff - How about the turmoil in the currency markets and what appears to be competitive devaluations? Those only focused on the US$ index have missed the incredible moves in Asian currencies - least of which is the Chinese yuan.

    Considering the huge amount of US$ denominated debt that has built up since the last crisis this should be a real concern. This has shades of 1998 - but unlike in 1998 - the Fed has no room to lower rates (and the US economy isn't as strong).

    Check out the various crosses using this link.

    Whether this issue actually has the capacity to tremendously hurt the US economy is debatable; what isn't is the potential for some extreme volatility and the probability of lower earnings from multi-nationals from currency translations and reduced demand (from US products becoming more expensive).
    Aug 21, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Weekend Edition [View article]
    Cullen - why are you using a chart of intermodal traffic rather than total carloads? Yes, intermodal has been up but total carloads down, as has been the total of the two.
    Aug 15, 2015. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update - Recent Earnings And Economic Data Are Positive As The Market Sells Off [View article]
    Is less being purchased by the world? Or are exports simply being shifted to the cheaper currencies? After all, Japanese and German exports are booming. And we know that the Chinese gov't is trying to shift China to an internal growth market vs export led -with some success if you look at Chinese services PMI.

    However, I see your point about energy - but it's not only crude - look at the coal companies now in bankruptcy (or soon to be there). The issue is that it doesn't appear as if it's big enough to bring down the economy - although it is early days yet.

    In case you missed this, the interview with Lowry Research chief market analyst is interesting. He makes a compelling case the end is nigh.
    Aug 9, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update - Recent Earnings And Economic Data Are Positive As The Market Sells Off [View article]
    Tack - while I too am concerned, the issue with Chinese exports is that the yuan has been very strong relative to its largest trading partners and has been relatively flat against the dollar over the past two years.

    Use this link to see how the yuan (and other currencies) has moved relative to other countries over the past few years.

    Besides the tanking energy market I fear a continuation of US$ strength could ultimately force US companies to reduce their margins to remain competitive.
    Aug 9, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment