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dancing diva

dancing diva
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  • Corporate Profits Are Still Very Impressive [View article]
    While I don't disagree there's a possibility of more multiple expansion since interest rates are likely to remain very low, that's the worst possible reason to be bullish, especially since stocks are no longer cheap.

    The fact stocks aren't "egregiously overvalued" doesn't ease my concerns that massive increases in global debt over the past several years makes for a precarious world.
    Mar 28, 2015. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Quest For New Worries [View article]
    I don't have a history of revenues, but earnings declined three times (1983, 1985 and 1986) in non-recessionary periods since 1960. The 1986 decline was most likely due to the precipitous drop in crude oil prices in late 1985. I don't know the reasons for the 1983 and 1985 declines but they may have been commodity related.
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Wealth Hits A New High [View article]
    Not true.
    Mar 18, 2015. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Think I Think - Dollar Contagion And Dumb Markets [View article]
    Great piece Cullen but I didn't realize Stiglitz is the worlds oldest person :-)
    I believe his paper with Grossman was written in 1980 and not 1492.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:38 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Wealth Hits A New High [View article]
    So misleading. On aggregate wealth hit a new high, but in reality it is all due to stock market gains - just compare the recent figures with 2007. Considering the bulk of stock market wealth is held by a relatively few this in no way reflects middle America. The median household income remains well below the peak near the turn of the century and has only modestly been growing in the past couple years.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:21 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators' Campaign Of Distraction And Deception [View article]
    Amazing, but my original comment - that several liked - was eliminated - I assume by the staff of SA. I wonder why?
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators' Campaign Of Distraction And Deception [View article]
    Many on SA use the forum to teach or instruct. Rarely does one see someone of Tilsons' stature write a bearish article seemingly every time the stock has an up day.

    Note I wrote a similar comment to his last article but erased it before publishing it. I'm just fed up.
    Mar 10, 2015. 08:53 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Aristocrats And Higher Interest Rates [View article]
    It is not enough to look only at the interest rate trend but the valuation, payout ratio and trend in the US$.

    As an example, in 1994 as interest rates were rising the trade weighted US dollar index fell from 92 to 87, a 5.5% drop. I'm more concerned about the combination of the dollar's rise and interest rates than interest rates alone.
    Mar 7, 2015. 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    "And while the company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47 beat analysts’ expectations of $1.43, the company still saw an EPS decline of 23% against the same quarter a year ago (due primarily to falling oil prices)."

    Did you even bother to look over the details of the earnings release? Income from operations was up 30% as compared to Q4 2013. The reason for the lower eps in Q4 had nothing to do with oil. The reduction was totally due to paying paying $72 mil in taxes vs. having a tax benefit of $26 mil in Q42013.

    What a shoddy article.
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:13 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron - Does Recent Rebound Signify A Long-Term Trend Or Yet Another Value Trap For Investors? [View article]
    The only issue for me is whether we can believe CBI mgmt regarding future earnings and cash flow. But considering the stock is trading at a steep discount to fair market value if mgmt is even close to correct, it's a no-brainer that purchases, even at current levels, are very favorable in terms of potential risk vs. reward.

    I added near the end of the conference call around $43 and don't expect to see that level again unless the entire market has a large sell off.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impeccable Quality, But There Are No Bargains Today In The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector: Part 8 [View article]
    Great article, Chuck. Every time I look at clx or ko I'm tempted to short them, wondering what would happen if the dollar continues to rise and/or interest rates ever make a significant upside move. While I generally love DGI stocks (JNJ is my largest position), those nosebleed p/e's and high payout ratios for the staples keeps me away from that sector. In comparison, JNJ and Pfizer are bargains.
    Feb 25, 2015. 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron N.V.'s (CBI) CEO Philip Asherman on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    CBI looks like an incredible bargain near $43 if you can believe their earnings and cash flow guidance. Any reason to doubt mgmt?
    Feb 25, 2015. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Over Think It, Buy Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    "I simply cannot see J&J perform the same remarkable trend as in 1980 to 2015 as it will do in 2015-2050."

    I can't see most of the dividend aristocrats (or non aristocrats) performing as well over the next 35 years as JNJ did in the past 35 years. However, that does not negate the fact that JNJ is relatively cheaper than many of the other dividend aristocrats with a much better balance sheet, and the odds are very high it will outperform bonds and cash with less volatility than many other stocks.
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    Ethanol has little or nothing to do with the past two year price drop in corn prices or US farmland values. Better US weather and increased foreign competition are the culprits.

    Prices got so high for corn in the 2007-2012 period (largely due to the rapid escalation of the government mandate for ethanol use in the US) that it increased the supply of foreign production. As a result US exports have taken a tumble; most notably Ukraine and Brazil have become large exporters of corn to the world market.

    I used to be a grains analyst before retirement. The reduction in US exports and increased foreign production could have been easily predicted several years ago, but even I was amazed when I looked at some of the foreign stats awhile back, most notably Brazilian corn production and exports. When I retired in the late 90's Brazil produced for internal consumption only, today it's the second largest corn exporter. And despite the US crop growing some 40% since the late 90's, US exports haven't grown at all.

    Corn prices may have bottomed, but it will take another supply shock to see prices much higher.
    Feb 15, 2015. 02:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    I could be wrong but I don't think Jeff has ever recommended taking on margin debt. That's often a very foolish thing to do.
    Feb 15, 2015. 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment