ginchinchili

Corporations Win Again - This Time It's Healthcare

ncalmd, if all our politicians had Kucinich's principles our country would be so much better off. They would be debating real issues for good reasons. Now it's just Democrat against Republican with no end in sight.

What hurts is that I know this will lead to our demise. Not that we're going to be taken over by another country or anything like that. But we will continue to slip further and further into a 3rd world standard of living and it won't be smooth either. The worse it gets the more vehemently we'll be point fingers and blame each other until organized groups will start acting outside of the law. It won't be pretty. Wisdom and intelligence is the only cure and I'm afraid that is in short supply right now.

Corporations Win Again - This Time It's Healthcare

Kudos, Jason. You're spot on in your observations and I thank you for expressing them. It's an honest, but unpopular, position.

The US is in deep trouble with no way out. At least no way that enough Americans are willing to go. Yes, it's our system where we allow corporations, through lobbying, to shape the laws that our country runs on. But anytime a Kucinich or a Wellstone introduces legislation that would do away with lobbying the neo-conservatives and moderate Democrats prevent it from going anywhere, and they have enough conservatives on the Supreme Court to keep the status quo in our lobbyist heaven. It would require a majority of liberals on the Supreme Court or a Constitutional Amendment and the neo-conservatives, with their cries of "socialism" and "anti-Americanism" led by the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck, will keep that from ever happening. Bottom line: Americans have gotten brain-soft and can't think for themselves. We allow ourselves to be led by our emotions by those who are profiting from the demise of our once free-thinking society. It's a shame.

A123 Powering Forward on Its Planned IPO

jerrydd, I don't necessarily disagree with your assessments regarding some of these companies you mention, but it might be more useful to back your opinion with some statistics or perhaps some weaknesses in their fundamentals, which there are, in my opinion. I think I remember you saying you had bought an Exide battery (I believe it was Exide) and you were very disappointed with its performance. However, if the vast majority of their customers are satisfied with Exide's products, that would suggest a different, more substantiated, conclusion.

I have my own reservations about Exide and Valance, but it's mostly about their fundamentals, which I think would be fair in using to draw some conclusions about their managements. On the other hand, I know nothing about their R&D departments. Companies do learn and make improvements. The fact that Exide has forged a partnership with Axion suggests to me that they aren't just sitting around waiting for the world to start liking their old batteries.

A123 Powering Forward on Its Planned IPO

Mayascribe, both Exide and Axion are up nicely today. So is EnerSys, after yesterday's route. John must be a happy camper today. He's earned it--many times over.


On Aug 20 01:20 PM Mayascribe wrote:

> And make some $, too!
>
> Exide is very healthy, today.

A123 Powering Forward on Its Planned IPO

Though they've got a lot of work ahead of them, I think A123 Systems is in an enviable spot. I will likely leave it alone at the time of its IPO because it's just too hard for individual investors to get a fair shake in IPOs (IMO). Usually their share price drops after the initial introductory fete. That being said, I agree that this is sure to awaken interest in the energy storage industry. Do you believe that this IPO will spark interest in both energy storage for motive batteries as well as companies likely to be big players in producing energy storage for the smart grid?

And for 5 bonus points: What the heck happened to EnerSys yesterday? I don't understand why the market (over?) reacted so negatively to a major institutional stock holder's sale to Goldman, Sachs of 3.2 million shares. A sale from one institution to another--what's the problem? As always, thank you for your free classes on the energy storage industry.

Obama Announces List of Grant Recipients, Recognizing Significance of Hybrid Markets

John, I know this is like talking about next year's Christmas on the day after this year's, but do you envision writing more on the energy storage sector for the smart grid? I know you have already, but I hope to see more on this topic.

There are a lot of new and exciting things happening in the automotive battery industry, but energy storage for our grid, and the grids of other nations, is a relatively new employment of energy storage technology, at least on the massive scale that is being discussed, so it seems the possibilities are an even greater mystery than the battery technology that will dominate the auto industry. How big is the potential market, or is that even knowable?

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Boxed Merlot: EnerSys's adjusted net earnings was $0.23. This does not include their restructuring and acquisition charges which is generally not included in net earnings. The restructuring and acquisition charges are clearly stated, amounting to $0.06 per share. The average estimate was $0.15 per share.

Rachael, thank you. You are as gracious as you are lovely and gifted, though I think you're just being nice because you think I'm cute.


On Aug 06 09:51 AM saltydog wrote:

> i think you should recheck your bexp.
> e trade says beat estimate by $.01 and beat on revs.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Rachael Granby: You guys always leave out EnerSys, who released earnings yesterday after close and beat estimates by $0.08. This is the largest industrial battery maker in the world, an American company with a market cap of $962 million. Please start including them among your "notables."

Exciting Times as ATVM Loan and ARRA Battery Grants Announced

Well, once again I'm waving the flag for the silent giant, EnerSys. Up until two or three days ago I couldn't see how EnerSys could miss on these grants. They have the money for matching funds. They invest a lot in the R & D. In addition to their lead acid batteries, they manufacture lithium and nickel batteries. And they have a great global footprint. But the truth is, they aren't a company that is competing in the auto battery business anyway, which is what this $2 billion + federal grant program is focused on.

I won't think twice about continuing to hold my shares of EnerSys because nothing's changed, as far as they're concerned. They're a well run battery company with good products who have their niche(s). Though I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little disappointed, but their earnings report today was very strong, beating estimates by $0.08, so I'm happy. And frankly they may not have even submitted a proposal since their focus, at this point anyway, is not automotive batteries. Plus, I sincerely believe that this grant program will benefit the entire industry, and more so because of the publicity than the money. The reason I think the publicity is so important is not just about advertising, but because it will educate the public about how absolutely critical the battery industry will become as we journey forth into our now-future green tech revolution.

So now, as Don says, we can get back to the more pertinent grind where things really matter. But don't forget, Christmas comes again in, I believe, November when Uncle Sam doles out grants and loans for smart grid energy storage. I think EnerSys has a better shot at that, though no guarantees. What do you think, John? And I hope you will focus a few more of your articles on that topic.

Congratulations to all the companies, their associates and their investors, that were awarded grant money. Everyone involved in this industry will benefit from today. May the recipients spend it wisely.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Poor EnerSys, the largest industrial battery company in the world, an American company, and it never seems to get the respect it deserves. After all, it's just a boring battery company, right? For the one or two who are interested, EnerSys, too, will be releasing their earnings today after the market closes. If it were up to me I would have added them to Seeking Alpha's "Notable earnings after Wednesday's close," but, hey, that's just me. I guess I'm just a sucker for "boring."

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Continues to Outperform Cool

jerrydd, just what are my "just rewards" and why? Seems like a crappy attitude, but I wouldn't immediately assume it's deserving of jail time. Besides, haven't I made it clear that I don't buy stocks on other people's recommendations? But thanks just the same.

On Aug 04 12:34 PM jerrydd wrote:

On the other poster about my descriptions of Exide as crappy, it's
shorthand for unethical business practices so bad the officers went
to jail and their batteries are poor quality and a low margin one.
Please invest in it so you get your just rewards. Same for Valance,
their products are way too expensive and fail quickly so yes they
suck. Maxwell is hype as is Unisolar/ERNR. Please invest in them for the same reasons.

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Continues to Outperform Cool

Mayascribe, if there's one thing I've learned about investing it's that the talking heads should be ignored. If they get something right it's usually more coincidence than anything else, because for every pundit whose prediction is correct, there are 20 others who get it wrong. And who's right one day will be wrong the next.

My investing skills decidedly improved when I started focusing on learning as much as I can about a company; a product; an industry; investing techniques; etc., ignoring the pundits, and analyzing your information with a big helping of common sense and a heaping spoonful of caution. I'm not saying don't listen to the pundits, because they have good information, too. Just ignore them when they start pointing you to certain stocks. And don't think this is a backdoor way of taking a swipe at John P. Personally, I don't put him in that talking head catagory, but I do take the same approach as I mention above. John's a wealth of information and I've learned tons about the battery industry from his articles. I know he has particular favorites that he discloses to us, and I even weight that to a certain extent, but I wouldn't encourage you to invest in a company because John Petersen has done so (No offense, John.) He has his reasons for doing so, and they're not your reasons. Plus, he doesn't have a crystal ball, nor do you, nor I, nor even Goldman Sachs. Knowledge, analysis, common sense and instinct. And I agree with your tendency toward long term investing. Just stay up on the company and industry and don't be afraid to make changes if you deem it necessary.

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Continues to Outperform Cool

jerrydd, in your brief analysis of the battery industry relying primarily on modifiers such as "suck" and "crappy," I noticed you left out EnerSys, for neither praise nor criticism. In fact, EnerSys doesn't often get discussed one way or the other in public forums, which surprises me.

Of course, John always includes it in his charts and discloses it as one of his battery investments. Last week Tom Conrad wrote an article for Seeking Alpha about clean tech stocks (seekingalpha.com/artic...) in which he mentions that he has several stock lists that he has compiled. I looked at his "Electricity Storage" list and found EnerSys missing. I posted a comment pointing this out to him and he acknowledged it was an oversight and that he had since added it to his list.

I just find it a bit curious because I think EnerSys is probably in the best position of all the battery companies. They are certainly the giant among industrial battery producers and set up for mass production of their primary money makers, lead acid batteries, but also produce nickel and lithium batteries, and has recently been increasing their investments in research, development, and production of lithium products. I'm impressed that they aren't just trying to crank out as many lithium car batteries in, what would be, a questionable quest to corner the auto battery business, but instead seem to be focused on applications where battery weight and size are most relevant. (I suspect this is one of the reasons John is attracted to this company as an investment; it reflects his thinking.) They also have a well-defined global distribution network, which will prove big in coming years.

Yes, this is a plug for EnerSys, but it think it's warranted and deserved. All I can think of is that EnerSys comes across as kind of boring, but I think they will quietly grow to become one of the most successful players in the battery industry. The following is a link to a press release that was issued last week which touches on some of EnerSys's business pursuits that I mention above: phx.corporate-ir.net/p...=

As always, thank you, John, for sharing your research and helping to educate us about the battery industry. I don't care if people agree or disagree, but I don't think people should get upset with you just because they disagree with something you write. Personally, I don't agree 100% with anyone, including myself (?), but if I tried to pick a fight with everyone I disagreed with, well, life would be a real bummer. Thanks John.


On Aug 03 09:44 AM jerrydd wrote:

>
> Here John keeps bashing Lithium batteries yet he has no evidence
> in the short term to back up his points and his longer term argument
> of not enough Lithium is weak. Nor has he put any evidence that Lithium
> would cost more as Li already has costs down to $.30wthr at 1/2,
> 1/3 the weight of CL batteries.
>
> Lithium is in a more Advanced stage of development now being produced
> compared with his favorite of carbon/lead batteries which little
> is being produced. And his niche for them, start-stop and mild hybrids
> is not from my studies going to be big or will for the short time
> it is here, CL will not be ready vs Lithium which is now.
>
> Due to soon higher oil prices and the low cost of mass produced EV's
> by their natural simplicity, in 5 yrs they will take over the economy
> transport market.
>
> Since Axion won't release info and their hype has nothing to be based
> on other than other CL companies have done good lab tests, I'd be
> very careful.
>
> Warning on Maxwell as their ultracaps are far, far too expensive,
> complicated systems to use them make them not viable. Price a system
> out and you'll be amazed at 10x's a Lithium battery system or more.
> Their power/energy/lb ratio is terrible too.
>
> Valance Li batteries suck!! Every one I've seen used has died rather
> fast.
>
> Exide is a cut corners, crappy company that has low margins and not
> likely to go up much.
>
>
> United Solar Ovonic LLC
> UNI-SOLAR, a product innovation of Energy Conversion Devices, Inc.
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) (NASDAQ: seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> is the leader in building integrated rooftop photovoltaics, ...<br/>uni-solar.com/interior...
> - Cached
>
> Has this company or it's earlier versions going back 30 yrs every
> produced a profit from a product?? They are another hype company
> I'd run from, not to.
>
> C+D tech seems to be in almost every cell ph tower in the country
> and has good products. But it could like any battery company get
> overtaken by tech advances. I use them in one of my EV's and happy
> with them.
>
> Zenn and EEstor looks more and more like hype and no substance.<br/>
>
> A123 is about the only solid battery play when it goes public I see
> other than BYD as both have proven products and orders for them.
>
>
> I want badly to see batteries become better as I see EV's, plug in
> hybrids as the future being 3x's as eff as gas/diesel and they use
> US made electricity, not imported oil which next yr will hit $4-5/gal
> again as soon as the world economy comes back as there is not enough
> supply. Because of this they will be by far the cheapest transport
> means, fuel, making EV drive the way to go.
>
> But I've seen way too many battery company hype machines, scams before
> and there are many in this list. These are just the ones who I know
> about. The other may or may not be good as I don't have enough info
> on them.

Energy Storage on the Smart Grid: 99.45% Cheap and 0.55% Cool

I think your article "Smart Grid's Enabler - Alternative Energy Storage" is among your most informative. Coupled with the 2 EAC reports mentioned in that article, readers can get a good picture of smart grid energy storage requirement the government and utility companies will be looking to implement over at least the next 10 years, and certainly a lot longer. I believe this will be true not only in the US, but eventually all over the world.

So let me see if I've got this right, and please correct me if I don't. Batteries (and like serving technology) can be divided into 2 major categories: (1) motive energy storage, for transportation, and
(2) energy storage for smart grid applications. The latter category can be broken down further into 3 sub-categories: (1) generation; (2) transmission and distribution; and (3) end-user. As far as which companies do what, I think I'll leave that up to you since several of your articles, particularly the one cited above, tackle that much better than any of my primitive slicing and dicing.

It's also true that some companies' technology qualifies for both primary categories, though we're at such an unusual point of tectonic change, as the greentech revolution moves deeper into its nascent advance, no one company has a lock on which technology will be used where and for what, but that, too, will change. In fact, we're already seeing those green shoots popping up into the market place and defining their positions as the first crop of this technology moves in. It's really quite thrilling, with tremendous potential for being extremely profitable as well.

As always, thank you, John. You've helped make me a better investor and have assisted in adding another helping of excitement to my stock investing.

Clean Energy Shopping List: 5 Stocks with Technology to Improve Grid Reliability

I'm sure you get plenty of "why not..." stocks-you-forgot comments, but in looking over your list of energy storage stocks there is an egregious omission that you must have left out for a particular reason, because I know you wouldn't accidentally leave off EnerSys, which is one of the US's two largest battery companies, and certainly the most diversified. Care to make your case? Thanks.