David Livingston

Winn Dixie: Why the Market Is Wrong Again

What was not mentioned is that Winn Dixie operates some of the lowest sales per sq ft grocery stores in the United States. Perhaps there is one chain doing worse, but not much worse. Winn Dixie continues to operate stores 30% below market average on sales per sq ft. Market share is declining. This analyst is only going by Winn Dixie's cooked books, press releases, and the bull crap management is feeding him

Has Target Got It All Wrong?

Target is too busy trying to figure out how to sell groceries outside of Minnesota. Actually they really don't know how to sell them in Minnesota but since they are a home town favortie, consumers give them a pass.

Target is wasting too much time and energy trying to be politically correct. I see no compelling reason to shop them. Their employees are a slight step up in class compared to Wal-Mart, their customers a huge step up in class, but prices are insulting. Just go to Wal-Mart, wade through the trailer park crowd, and get what you need.

Food Stocks Bite the Dust

I think for the most part that food stocks are safe. If you are only looking at stock price, then the stocks are as risky as anything else and subject to fluctuations. But just forget about stock price today and in the next couple of years. If you are buying stocks today then its probably for the long run. We could be in this depression for years to come. Maybe 10-15 years from now you might be very happy you bought some food stocks that are paying nice dividends while you wait for a recovery.

A&P's Fruitcake Strategy

Wow, almost back to 1979 levels.......4000 stores down to 400. Good job.

Analysts Can't Agree on Grocery Sector Outlook

I agree that the analyst all have their own agenda and many are regularly wrong.

Unfortunately for the analysts, the grocers that are doing the best are privately held. The smartest people in the industry typically work for the best run privately held grocers.

The stock market, individual grocery stocks, and how well a grocery is actually doing operations wise, are much of the time mutually exclusive events. A grocer can be doing quite well, but if the stock is selling off, the price dives. A grocer can be doing poorly but if some analyst can find a reason to promote the stock, they will, and the price will rise for a day or two.

Many analyst only make their assessments on public documents, conference calls, and executive interviews. Those are probably the three worst sources of information.

Winn Dixie's Roller Coaster Ride

Do some more math. Market share is plummeting. Sales are not increasing faster than inflation and population growth. Competitors continue to open stores while Winn Dixie does minor remodels. Remodeled stores only get 9% lifts. This is terrible considering Winn Dixie probably is the lowest sales per sq ft supermarket chain in the country. Nine percent of nothing is nothing.

Competitors are targeting the few successful stores to build new stores nearby. The assumption is that if Winn Dixie is doing well, there is plenty to go around and it will be like taking candy from a baby. They view Winn Dixie as an ineffectual competitor that will not be able to respond defensively.

Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company: Perplexing Freefall

Why should a company need to sell its story at an investment conference? Seems to me its balance sheet should speak for itself.

As for some fund dumping shares, seems like a stupid move by the fund. I think there is more to the story.

What about the sale of the Super Fresh division in MD and PA?. Thats been one of the worst kept secrets. Maybe those in the know have got wind that those stores do not have any serious buyers and are for all practical purposes ---- worthless.

Safeway: A Safe Way to Invest

2% same store sales is minus 3% market share if you have 5% inflation. Even more losses in market share considering population growth. Big red flag when a CEO presents at an investment conference. These are just big sales presentations for companies with low stock prices trying to con analysts into believing they will do better. Good companies don't need to resort to doing this. My advice is to never buy stock in a company that presents at an investment conference.

Watch Winn-Dixie Dance

Yep, those plastic bottles are going to save Winn Dixie from the onslaught of more Wal-Marts, Publix, and Aldi. Compound that with the fact that Winn Dixie has never been a good operator and never will be. Definitley another bankruptcy coming. You can't add a coat of paint, some new carts, and expect shoppers to suddenly stop shopping at superior competitors.

Numbers Check on Sears Holdings - It's Cheap

Don't belive any numbers in the 10-k. The Sears and Kmart parking lots are dead. They don't even turn on the outside lights at night. They have the employees parking in front of the store now to give the impression that customers are in the store. Real estate? Those blighted buildings in B locations that will sit empty for years. My clients tell me the only thing worse than being located with a closed Kmart is being located with one still open. Some call it the Kmart jinx. Consumers have trained themselves to avoid Kmart and Sears locations. When another retailer takes over, consumers seem to still avoid the location, therefore making the real estate worthless.

Is Lampert Making the Grade at Sears Holdings?

What real estate value? Cap ex starved buildings in bad neighborhoods. Don't believe the hype on the real estate value. If those old clunker stores had any real estate value they would be sold instead of sitting there nearby vacant of inventory and customers. Employees have been ordered to park in front of the store to give the appearance that customers are there. Yet they can't afford to turn on the outside pylon light at night.