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cdknop

cdknop
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  • China's official PMI rose more than anticipated, up 0.2 from April to 50.8 in May and raising optimism that the world's second-largest economy may be stabilizing. The reading is 0.3 higher than expected. The picture should get rounded out on Monday with the release of the HSBC survey of small and private firms. Related ETFs: FXI, MCHI, GXC, PEK[View news story]
    Chinese officials were indicating monetary easing was not an option, so positive surprises to economic output are unilaterally RISK POSITIVE.
    Jun 1 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Tail Of Natural Gas Production [View article]
    Nice chart, but your conclusion is confused. The production prior to 2010 is at the end of the tail, and that means it the also the most stable and least at risk. The stripper wells keep the asset in place, the oil and gas lease. Once you lose production, you lose the asset. This is why your assumption is false. Unprofitable gas wells are not going anywhere.

    However, your chart points to a different bullish conclusion: steepening decline curves and a recent drilling boom imply that we have a lot of production decline coming in the next few months and years that is not being replaced with new drills.
    Jun 27 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens in Greece Is Ultimately Irrelevant [View article]
    Euro bounce after last year's crisis wounded the Euro bears. However the crisis is real and any Euro optimism is temporary. The end game includes two of the three following phrases: default, breaking-up, bailout, devaluation. All are negative for Euro, and with growth slowing in Germany, going long Euros, as post mentions above, can only be a short-term success.
    Jun 23 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Really, Really Bad News About Oil [View article]
    Badly written article.

    As to peak oil, Lucidone is right about demand destruction and ample supplies. Prices at these levels are not justified. Increases in Chines demand are more than canceled out by the decrease in US demand. India's oil companies are going bankrupt, and it can't afford the subsidies anymore. New drilling everywhere, especially alternative fossil fuels, such as the shales (Bakken, Rockies, etc.). If new tech allows us to extract 40% instead of 35%, we add another Saudi Arabia to reserves, instantly, ready to recover. And the good oil companies can already do this.

    It just makes me sick to see greedy investors rationalize this price spike in order to profit.
    Jun 3 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There an Oil Crisis Looming? [View article]
    Great article.
    Jun 3 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities: Inflation Leaves Investors Little Choice [View article]
    The inflation story is old news. If you try to trade on it, you will lose. The cheese has moved, investors.

    Slowing world growth means deflation, believe it or not.
    Jun 3 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Index Speculators' Hoarding Commodities [View article]
    I am just baffled that investors such as yourself try to justify these prices while they kill the american consumer and put our propsperity in jeopardy.

    Shame on you.
    Jun 2 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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