longoil

Canadian Oil Sands Trust Is Now the Single Most Attractive Oil Acquisition Target

COSWF did in fact increase the dividend payment for November 2009, but it went up only 40% from 25 cents /unit to 35 cents /unit, not 100% as Kurt predicated. Although, in the long run I think Kurt's predication is on the money.

www.cos-trust.com/news...

It's Going to Get Ugly

Fitz,

Your dream of auto NG outlets in every home will never happen.
Gas that feeds your home is considered a necessity (for heating and cooking) and is taxed lightly. How will the government tax (or should I say overtax) NG that is used to fill your car from the same connection ? Yes, you could add a separately metered device for filling cars, but we know many clever people simply attach their Phill to the lower taxed heating and cooking outlets. Goverenment does not care about energy indepedence, but rather a nice revenue stream (i.e. gasoline tax) to pay special interest grousp (banks, auto manufactureurs, etc.)

ConocoPhilips: Time to Embrace Natural Gas Transportation

Fitz,

I am not anti-NG, just not too crazy about badly managed companies like COP and CHK.

I choose to play NG through better managed companies like BP, RDS, TOT, CVX, ECA and XOM..

ConocoPhilips: Time to Embrace Natural Gas Transportation

Long_on_oil

I agree with you on COP vs BP but for a totally different reason.

COP is bathing in debt, $52 billion dollars debt on a market cap of $75 billion. And its EPS is negative $16.38 share and so it is paying shareholders dividends with borrowed money, not earnings. This is the same problem with CHK.

BP has high debt of $65 billion, but it is small compared to its market of $175 billion. Its EPS is a positive $3.76, so at least its dividends are coming from actual earnings.

After being burnt by many times by stories of potential growth by companies like COP and CHK , now I always look at the balance sheet carefully before sinking a dime into any company.

Three Companies with Positive, Long-Term Potential

Stephen,

Don't you find that COP is overextended in debt, a potential problem especially if NG prices remain low next year ?
COP's EPS is negative 16.38 per share.
Wouldn't one of the other majors (like XOM, CVX, BP, RDS, STO or TOT) by better investments since they have better control of their debt.

Investors Jostle over the Oil Sands Prize

In regards to HTE, there is several scenarios that can play out.

1) Approval of shareholders and Canadian government, HTE share price will not go above $10.

2) Non-Approval of either current shareholders or Canadian government, HTE share price will tank to $3 or $4 as KNOC is forced to unload its holdings.

3) Another Asian oil company enters the competition and bids HTE to $15 or $20.

I would say that scenario #1 is the most likely at 60%, scenario #2 is possible at 30% and scenario #2 is the least likley at 10%.

Investors Jostle over the Oil Sands Prize

Jimbo,

I agree 100% with you. There many sides to the oil sands developments.

1) They provide secure oil to the USA from neighbors who don't use the proceeds to fund terrorism against the USA and its allies.

2) There are many environmental concerns with the oil sands no doubt. But companies like Syncrude and Suncor have made great strides. The have increased the recycling rate of water used to the point where only 3 barrels or water are needed (instead of the previous 10 barrels) to produce 1 barrel of oil

3) Suncor has developed technology where the reclamation rate of mined oil sands land has decreased from decades to weeks.

www.montrealgazette.co...

4) Oil sands provides countless well paying jobs to people from Eastern Canada that have a experienced high unemployment rate.

Harvest Energy: East vs. West in Terms of Oil

HTE is worst of the worst of Canadian income trusts. The inept management of CEO John Zahary et al. Acquired Viking and Calpine trusts and then managed to take HTE from $40 /share down to $6 /share pre-acquisition price in the short period of a couple of years. Zahary also made the "brilliant" move of acquiring a low margin refining business in eastern Canadian. The refining business is tough enough for companies like Valero and Tesoro with good management who know what they are doing.. I think KNOC overpaid for HTE considering there were no other takers in the picture.

Not everything is rosy for the Chinese and Koreans. The Iraq government has blacklisted Sinpoec and two Korean oil companies for dealing with Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqis were irked when they found out the Chinese and Koreans were dealing with the Kurds directly instead through the central Iraq government.

Investors Jostle over the Oil Sands Prize

KNOC has stated they will try acquire another oil sands property in teh near future but obviously would not state which one.

Judging the stock price jumps today of PWE and BTE (9% and 0.65% respectively), many investors seem to be betting that PWE will be the next target.

Canadian Royalty Trusts – Will Dividends Rise or Fall?

Dividends paid to US trust holders from Canadian income trusts automatically rise when the US dollar falls in value. The pay out in Canadian dollars remains the same, but when dividends are converted to USD, US holders benefit from the increased value in the Canadian dollar.

eBay Q3: Earnings Not Too Shabby, Outlook Tentative

The problem is brand association. EBay has not caught on yet. The eBay name is associated with hobby items, collectibles, junk jewelry and other second hand items. They are trying to enter an area that they have weak traction in (i.e. books, DVDs, etc.) and where Amazon leads the industry and has superior customer service.

This is like MacDonald's announcing that they will be open up high end steak houses and expect to succeed because of their extensive franchise network and experience in the food industry. Just like the name MacDonald's is associated with junk food, eBay is similarly associated with second hand merchandise and dismissal customer service.

Canadian Royalty Trusts – Will Dividends Rise or Fall?

KNOC has made a bid for all outstanding HTE trust units:

"CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - 10/21/09) - Harvest Energy Trust ("Harvest") (TSX:HTE.UN - News) (NYSE:HTE - News) today announces that it has entered into an agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") with Korea National Oil Corporation ("KNOC") for the purchase of all the issued and outstanding trust units (the "Units") at a price of C$10.00 per Unit for a total cash consideration of approximately C$1.8 billion plus the assumption of C$2.3 billion of debt."

This is great new for anyone who purchased HTE over the last year at $7.00 or lower a share that stand to make a 50% profit.

However, I will be very surprised to see this deal go through. Many HTE share owners were Viking and Calpine trust unit holders who bought in at anywhere from $10 to $40 per unit and were then taken over by Harvest Trust. I doubt they would be willing to take a huge capital loss to give KNOC access to cheap Canadian oil.

The Koreans are following in th footsteps of their big brothers (The Chinese) and are scouring the world for dwindling oil resources. Given the currrent market conditions, they are taking advantage of the poor share price of HTE brought on the inept management of CEO John Zahary et al.

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

Fitz,

I have the highest respect for both Hefner and Boone, but both have their personal agendas.

1) I read Hefner book (the GET) and I find he is a bit too chummy with CEO Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake that he glosses over all the serious issues associated with non-conventional gas. While the book is the most comprehensive I have read on natural gas, he is far from neutral.

2) T. Boone Pickens wants the federal government to pay for the cost transmission line infrastructure to his wind farms.

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

The stock market was artificially inflated in the late 1990's thanks to the internet boom. Normally stock market indexes appreciate anywhere from 10 to 12% per year on average. In the short period of 1995-2000 we saw the DJIA shoot up 150% and NASDAQ go up 500%. Anything over 15% gain per year is unsustainable over the long term. The current DJIA = 10000 is actually the value it should have grown to since 1995.

Although gold is a good hedge. I can live without gold.

I cannot live without oil, which is used in thousands of applications (besides transportation). I think my money will appreciate the most over the long run invested in oil and gas.

The 95% of the world's energy mix (according to the BP statistical survey and the EIA) comes from oil, gas, coal & nuclear. Oil and Gas will be the key energy sources from the next 40 years. Alternative energy is still in its infancy. Solar and wind account for only 1% of the world's energy mix. Natural gas would be a good transitory solution, since existing cars can be modified to run on it for only a few thousands dollars. This is a much cheaper alternative than hybrid, hydrogen or electric cars.

eBay: Growth at the Right Bid

The bottom line that is eBay's lack of customer service will kill it in the end. Sellers do not like paying ever increasing exorbitant fees and get zero customer service and get their rights striped away (i.e. no seller feedback mechanism).

Ever try to contact Ebay customer service? They make it so excruciating painful that most people give up. When you do find the link, and your service request you will never get an answer.

Contrast this with Amazon. On several occasion where I wanted to make changes to existing orders, I sent and received responses (and completed actions) within 2 hrs. My expectation was 24 to 48 hrs reply time.