longoil's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/204260/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174703-bright-future-for-petrobras-and-brazil-part-2?source=feed#comment-771603 771603
Chavez also kicked the majors recently in 2005, but to his detriment. Most Venezuelan engineers don't have heavy oil extraction expertise and if they do they are working in western Canada earning big bucks in the oil sands [rojects. Most educated Venezuelans I speak to are surprisely very anti-Chavez. His power base rests with the uneducated and poor.

In the case of Brazil, I think Lulu is smart enough to realize that Brazil cannot undergo a long term deep sea master plan on their on own and has learned from the lessons of Chavez and the tragedy of Canterell double digit depletion in Mexico. The danger still lies in the future, where some potential Brazilian dictator could kick out the majors in the future.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 08:56:20 -0500
Chavez also kicked the majors recently in 2005, but to his detriment. Most Venezuelan engineers don't have heavy oil extraction expertise and if they do they are working in western Canada earning big bucks in the oil sands [rojects. Most educated Venezuelans I speak to are surprisely very anti-Chavez. His power base rests with the uneducated and poor.

In the case of Brazil, I think Lulu is smart enough to realize that Brazil cannot undergo a long term deep sea master plan on their on own and has learned from the lessons of Chavez and the tragedy of Canterell double digit depletion in Mexico. The danger still lies in the future, where some potential Brazilian dictator could kick out the majors in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174228-bright-future-for-petrobras-and-brazil?source=feed#comment-767376 767376
There is uncertainty no matter where you invest in oil and gas.

1 ) Russia and China have similar potential government interference issues as Brazil. Look what happened in Venezuela, Chavez nationalized foreign assets and shot himself in the foot at the same time. Venezuela petro-engineers are well versed in light-sweet oil production, but lack experience with heavy-sour oil (where the bulk of Venezuelan future production will come from)
2) Europe and Canada have the potential for adding hefty carbon taxes to gas and oil production.
3) The United States will probably punish oil companies with windfall taxes (especially with the Democrats in charge). This is why companies like Exxon and Chevron with amazing balance sheets are trading at incredibly low valuations.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:20:41 -0500
There is uncertainty no matter where you invest in oil and gas.

1 ) Russia and China have similar potential government interference issues as Brazil. Look what happened in Venezuela, Chavez nationalized foreign assets and shot himself in the foot at the same time. Venezuela petro-engineers are well versed in light-sweet oil production, but lack experience with heavy-sour oil (where the bulk of Venezuelan future production will come from)
2) Europe and Canada have the potential for adding hefty carbon taxes to gas and oil production.
3) The United States will probably punish oil companies with windfall taxes (especially with the Democrats in charge). This is why companies like Exxon and Chevron with amazing balance sheets are trading at incredibly low valuations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174228-bright-future-for-petrobras-and-brazil?source=feed#comment-766938 766938
I agree Yahoo and most other websites are useless when evaluating foreign companies.

Check out the Mcdep.com website.
Kurt Wulff (SA contributer) does a nice job of analyzing US, Canada, European, Brazilian, Chinese and Russian oil and gas companies in detail..]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 08:00:48 -0500
I agree Yahoo and most other websites are useless when evaluating foreign companies.

Check out the Mcdep.com website.
Kurt Wulff (SA contributer) does a nice job of analyzing US, Canada, European, Brazilian, Chinese and Russian oil and gas companies in detail..]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174228-bright-future-for-petrobras-and-brazil?source=feed#comment-766912 766912
They are the world leaders in ethanol production, where it makes a substantial percentage of the transportation fuel used in Brazil. Sugar has a positive EROI (7 x higher than corn). Corn ethanol which is advocated in the US has a negative EROI and it only use is to buy farming votes in the Midwest.

Petrobras oil fields have a nice long reserve life of 14 years.

RIG and DO are also good investments that benefit from the deep sea drilling projects Brazil has in the Atlantic. RIG, DO and other deep sea drillers get paid where or not the wells are successful or dry.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 07:37:44 -0500
They are the world leaders in ethanol production, where it makes a substantial percentage of the transportation fuel used in Brazil. Sugar has a positive EROI (7 x higher than corn). Corn ethanol which is advocated in the US has a negative EROI and it only use is to buy farming votes in the Midwest.

Petrobras oil fields have a nice long reserve life of 14 years.

RIG and DO are also good investments that benefit from the deep sea drilling projects Brazil has in the Atlantic. RIG, DO and other deep sea drillers get paid where or not the wells are successful or dry.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173483-gordon-currie-on-where-to-invest-in-energy-right-now?source=feed#comment-765940 765940
Prior to Colonel Drake successfully drilling oil in Pennsylvania in 1859 which was used for kerosene for illumination, oil lamps were filled with oil from sperm whales which were almost hunted into extinction had the petroleum age not begun in the 1860's

Similarly, the end of slavery coincides with the introduction of the industrial age where coal fired steam machniery replaced human labor. With the introduction of Watt's steam engine in 1776, the British had abolished slavery by 1833. In the US, coal had as much to do with the liberation of slaves, as did Lincoln in 1865.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:23:07 -0500
Prior to Colonel Drake successfully drilling oil in Pennsylvania in 1859 which was used for kerosene for illumination, oil lamps were filled with oil from sperm whales which were almost hunted into extinction had the petroleum age not begun in the 1860's

Similarly, the end of slavery coincides with the introduction of the industrial age where coal fired steam machniery replaced human labor. With the introduction of Watt's steam engine in 1776, the British had abolished slavery by 1833. In the US, coal had as much to do with the liberation of slaves, as did Lincoln in 1865.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172989-stephen-schork-more-upside-in-oil?source=feed#comment-758822 758822
These high priced reports from Schork and other "experts" like Yergin at CERA had a good track record of being wrong 95% of the time.

home.entouch.net/dmd/c...

I stick with my experts (i.e. Simmons, Pickens, Campbell, Laherre, Deffeyes, etc) that actually got their hands dirty in oil fields and know that Peak Oil is a reality.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:51:39 -0500
These high priced reports from Schork and other "experts" like Yergin at CERA had a good track record of being wrong 95% of the time.

home.entouch.net/dmd/c...

I stick with my experts (i.e. Simmons, Pickens, Campbell, Laherre, Deffeyes, etc) that actually got their hands dirty in oil fields and know that Peak Oil is a reality.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171081-canadian-oil-sands-trust-is-now-the-single-most-attractive-oil-acquisition-target?source=feed#comment-743904 743904
www.cos-trust.com/news...]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:55:51 -0500
www.cos-trust.com/news...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/173432-michael-fitzsimmons/33793-it-s-going-to-get-ugly?source=feed#comment-740009 740009
Your dream of auto NG outlets in every home will never happen.
Gas that feeds your home is considered a necessity (for heating and cooking) and is taxed lightly. How will the government tax (or should I say overtax) NG that is used to fill your car from the same connection ? Yes, you could add a separately metered device for filling cars, but we know many clever people simply attach their Phill to the lower taxed heating and cooking outlets. Goverenment does not care about energy indepedence, but rather a nice revenue stream (i.e. gasoline tax) to pay special interest grousp (banks, auto manufactureurs, etc.)]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 08:13:51 -0500
Your dream of auto NG outlets in every home will never happen.
Gas that feeds your home is considered a necessity (for heating and cooking) and is taxed lightly. How will the government tax (or should I say overtax) NG that is used to fill your car from the same connection ? Yes, you could add a separately metered device for filling cars, but we know many clever people simply attach their Phill to the lower taxed heating and cooking outlets. Goverenment does not care about energy indepedence, but rather a nice revenue stream (i.e. gasoline tax) to pay special interest grousp (banks, auto manufactureurs, etc.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169914-conocophilips-time-to-embrace-natural-gas-transportation?source=feed#comment-737675 737675
I am not anti-NG, just not too crazy about badly managed companies like COP and CHK.

I choose to play NG through better managed companies like BP, RDS, TOT, CVX, ECA and XOM..]]> Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:46:34 -0400
I am not anti-NG, just not too crazy about badly managed companies like COP and CHK.

I choose to play NG through better managed companies like BP, RDS, TOT, CVX, ECA and XOM..]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169914-conocophilips-time-to-embrace-natural-gas-transportation?source=feed#comment-737669 737669
I agree with you on COP vs BP but for a totally different reason.

COP is bathing in debt, $52 billion dollars debt on a market cap of $75 billion. And its EPS is negative $16.38 share and so it is paying shareholders dividends with borrowed money, not earnings. This is the same problem with CHK.

BP has high debt of $65 billion, but it is small compared to its market of $175 billion. Its EPS is a positive $3.76, so at least its dividends are coming from actual earnings.

After being burnt by many times by stories of potential growth by companies like COP and CHK , now I always look at the balance sheet carefully before sinking a dime into any company.]]> Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:38:36 -0400
I agree with you on COP vs BP but for a totally different reason.

COP is bathing in debt, $52 billion dollars debt on a market cap of $75 billion. And its EPS is negative $16.38 share and so it is paying shareholders dividends with borrowed money, not earnings. This is the same problem with CHK.

BP has high debt of $65 billion, but it is small compared to its market of $175 billion. Its EPS is a positive $3.76, so at least its dividends are coming from actual earnings.

After being burnt by many times by stories of potential growth by companies like COP and CHK , now I always look at the balance sheet carefully before sinking a dime into any company.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169761-three-companies-with-positive-long-term-potential?source=feed#comment-735140 735140
Don't you find that COP is overextended in debt, a potential problem especially if NG prices remain low next year ?
COP's EPS is negative 16.38 per share.
Wouldn't one of the other majors (like XOM, CVX, BP, RDS, STO or TOT) by better investments since they have better control of their debt.]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 06:59:30 -0400
Don't you find that COP is overextended in debt, a potential problem especially if NG prices remain low next year ?
COP's EPS is negative 16.38 per share.
Wouldn't one of the other majors (like XOM, CVX, BP, RDS, STO or TOT) by better investments since they have better control of their debt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168153-investors-jostle-over-the-oil-sands-prize?source=feed#comment-728574 728574
1) Approval of shareholders and Canadian government, HTE share price will not go above $10.

2) Non-Approval of either current shareholders or Canadian government, HTE share price will tank to $3 or $4 as KNOC is forced to unload its holdings.

3) Another Asian oil company enters the competition and bids HTE to $15 or $20.

I would say that scenario #1 is the most likely at 60%, scenario #2 is possible at 30% and scenario #2 is the least likley at 10%. ]]> Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:30:41 -0400
1) Approval of shareholders and Canadian government, HTE share price will not go above $10.

2) Non-Approval of either current shareholders or Canadian government, HTE share price will tank to $3 or $4 as KNOC is forced to unload its holdings.

3) Another Asian oil company enters the competition and bids HTE to $15 or $20.

I would say that scenario #1 is the most likely at 60%, scenario #2 is possible at 30% and scenario #2 is the least likley at 10%. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168153-investors-jostle-over-the-oil-sands-prize?source=feed#comment-728332 728332
I agree 100% with you. There many sides to the oil sands developments.

1) They provide secure oil to the USA from neighbors who don't use the proceeds to fund terrorism against the USA and its allies.

2) There are many environmental concerns with the oil sands no doubt. But companies like Syncrude and Suncor have made great strides. The have increased the recycling rate of water used to the point where only 3 barrels or water are needed (instead of the previous 10 barrels) to produce 1 barrel of oil

3) Suncor has developed technology where the reclamation rate of mined oil sands land has decreased from decades to weeks.

www.montrealgazette.co...

4) Oil sands provides countless well paying jobs to people from Eastern Canada that have a experienced high unemployment rate.]]> Sat, 24 Oct 2009 11:33:36 -0400
I agree 100% with you. There many sides to the oil sands developments.

1) They provide secure oil to the USA from neighbors who don't use the proceeds to fund terrorism against the USA and its allies.

2) There are many environmental concerns with the oil sands no doubt. But companies like Syncrude and Suncor have made great strides. The have increased the recycling rate of water used to the point where only 3 barrels or water are needed (instead of the previous 10 barrels) to produce 1 barrel of oil

3) Suncor has developed technology where the reclamation rate of mined oil sands land has decreased from decades to weeks.

www.montrealgazette.co...

4) Oil sands provides countless well paying jobs to people from Eastern Canada that have a experienced high unemployment rate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168594-harvest-energy-east-vs-west-in-terms-of-oil?source=feed#comment-727727 727727
Not everything is rosy for the Chinese and Koreans. The Iraq government has blacklisted Sinpoec and two Korean oil companies for dealing with Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqis were irked when they found out the Chinese and Koreans were dealing with the Kurds directly instead through the central Iraq government.]]> Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:28:16 -0400
Not everything is rosy for the Chinese and Koreans. The Iraq government has blacklisted Sinpoec and two Korean oil companies for dealing with Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqis were irked when they found out the Chinese and Koreans were dealing with the Kurds directly instead through the central Iraq government.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168153-investors-jostle-over-the-oil-sands-prize?source=feed#comment-725917 725917
Judging the stock price jumps today of PWE and BTE (9% and 0.65% respectively), many investors seem to be betting that PWE will be the next target.]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:59:53 -0400
Judging the stock price jumps today of PWE and BTE (9% and 0.65% respectively), many investors seem to be betting that PWE will be the next target.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167456-canadian-royalty-trusts-will-dividends-rise-or-fall?source=feed#comment-725652 725652 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:06:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167974-ebay-q3-earnings-not-too-shabby-outlook-tentative?source=feed#comment-724915 724915
This is like MacDonald's announcing that they will be open up high end steak houses and expect to succeed because of their extensive franchise network and experience in the food industry. Just like the name MacDonald's is associated with junk food, eBay is similarly associated with second hand merchandise and dismissal customer service.]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:36:09 -0400
This is like MacDonald's announcing that they will be open up high end steak houses and expect to succeed because of their extensive franchise network and experience in the food industry. Just like the name MacDonald's is associated with junk food, eBay is similarly associated with second hand merchandise and dismissal customer service.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167456-canadian-royalty-trusts-will-dividends-rise-or-fall?source=feed#comment-724897 724897
"CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - 10/21/09) - Harvest Energy Trust ("Harvest") (TSX:HTE.UN - News) (NYSE:HTE - News) today announces that it has entered into an agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") with Korea National Oil Corporation ("KNOC") for the purchase of all the issued and outstanding trust units (the "Units") at a price of C$10.00 per Unit for a total cash consideration of approximately C$1.8 billion plus the assumption of C$2.3 billion of debt."

This is great new for anyone who purchased HTE over the last year at $7.00 or lower a share that stand to make a 50% profit.

However, I will be very surprised to see this deal go through. Many HTE share owners were Viking and Calpine trust unit holders who bought in at anywhere from $10 to $40 per unit and were then taken over by Harvest Trust. I doubt they would be willing to take a huge capital loss to give KNOC access to cheap Canadian oil.

The Koreans are following in th footsteps of their big brothers (The Chinese) and are scouring the world for dwindling oil resources. Given the currrent market conditions, they are taking advantage of the poor share price of HTE brought on the inept management of CEO John Zahary et al.]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:22:39 -0400
"CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - 10/21/09) - Harvest Energy Trust ("Harvest") (TSX:HTE.UN - News) (NYSE:HTE - News) today announces that it has entered into an agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") with Korea National Oil Corporation ("KNOC") for the purchase of all the issued and outstanding trust units (the "Units") at a price of C$10.00 per Unit for a total cash consideration of approximately C$1.8 billion plus the assumption of C$2.3 billion of debt."

This is great new for anyone who purchased HTE over the last year at $7.00 or lower a share that stand to make a 50% profit.

However, I will be very surprised to see this deal go through. Many HTE share owners were Viking and Calpine trust unit holders who bought in at anywhere from $10 to $40 per unit and were then taken over by Harvest Trust. I doubt they would be willing to take a huge capital loss to give KNOC access to cheap Canadian oil.

The Koreans are following in th footsteps of their big brothers (The Chinese) and are scouring the world for dwindling oil resources. Given the currrent market conditions, they are taking advantage of the poor share price of HTE brought on the inept management of CEO John Zahary et al.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167156-a-crude-10-year-perspective-the-djia-oil-and-gold?source=feed#comment-719822 719822
I have the highest respect for both Hefner and Boone, but both have their personal agendas.

1) I read Hefner book (the GET) and I find he is a bit too chummy with CEO Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake that he glosses over all the serious issues associated with non-conventional gas. While the book is the most comprehensive I have read on natural gas, he is far from neutral.

2) T. Boone Pickens wants the federal government to pay for the cost transmission line infrastructure to his wind farms.]]> Sun, 18 Oct 2009 18:42:42 -0400
I have the highest respect for both Hefner and Boone, but both have their personal agendas.

1) I read Hefner book (the GET) and I find he is a bit too chummy with CEO Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake that he glosses over all the serious issues associated with non-conventional gas. While the book is the most comprehensive I have read on natural gas, he is far from neutral.

2) T. Boone Pickens wants the federal government to pay for the cost transmission line infrastructure to his wind farms.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167156-a-crude-10-year-perspective-the-djia-oil-and-gold?source=feed#comment-719278 719278
Although gold is a good hedge. I can live without gold.

I cannot live without oil, which is used in thousands of applications (besides transportation). I think my money will appreciate the most over the long run invested in oil and gas.

The 95% of the world's energy mix (according to the BP statistical survey and the EIA) comes from oil, gas, coal & nuclear. Oil and Gas will be the key energy sources from the next 40 years. Alternative energy is still in its infancy. Solar and wind account for only 1% of the world's energy mix. Natural gas would be a good transitory solution, since existing cars can be modified to run on it for only a few thousands dollars. This is a much cheaper alternative than hybrid, hydrogen or electric cars. ]]> Sun, 18 Oct 2009 09:56:39 -0400
Although gold is a good hedge. I can live without gold.

I cannot live without oil, which is used in thousands of applications (besides transportation). I think my money will appreciate the most over the long run invested in oil and gas.

The 95% of the world's energy mix (according to the BP statistical survey and the EIA) comes from oil, gas, coal & nuclear. Oil and Gas will be the key energy sources from the next 40 years. Alternative energy is still in its infancy. Solar and wind account for only 1% of the world's energy mix. Natural gas would be a good transitory solution, since existing cars can be modified to run on it for only a few thousands dollars. This is a much cheaper alternative than hybrid, hydrogen or electric cars. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166681-ebay-growth-at-the-right-bid?source=feed#comment-716655 716655
Ever try to contact Ebay customer service? They make it so excruciating painful that most people give up. When you do find the link, and your service request you will never get an answer.

Contrast this with Amazon. On several occasion where I wanted to make changes to existing orders, I sent and received responses (and completed actions) within 2 hrs. My expectation was 24 to 48 hrs reply time.]]> Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:52:19 -0400
Ever try to contact Ebay customer service? They make it so excruciating painful that most people give up. When you do find the link, and your service request you will never get an answer.

Contrast this with Amazon. On several occasion where I wanted to make changes to existing orders, I sent and received responses (and completed actions) within 2 hrs. My expectation was 24 to 48 hrs reply time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166178-the-end-of-the-oil-age-not-quite?source=feed#comment-714161 714161
The most interesting fact was that more people bought new Ford F150 trucks than new Toyota Prius Hybrids with the CARS program. So much for encouraging fuel efficent vehicles.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:49:21 -0400
The most interesting fact was that more people bought new Ford F150 trucks than new Toyota Prius Hybrids with the CARS program. So much for encouraging fuel efficent vehicles.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166178-the-end-of-the-oil-age-not-quite?source=feed#comment-713621 713621
I agree with you that natural gas transportation will help, but to a point.

But remember three things:
1) Natural gas will also exhibit "Peak Gas" one or two decades after "Peak Oil".
2) Conventional natural gas reserve declines are much steeper than oil reserves.
3) Non-conventional gas fields exhibit an even faster decline, up to 50% to 80% reserve decline after only one year. Larry Bellehumeur's SA article of August 18, 2009 had an interesting discussion around this point.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 07:37:40 -0400
I agree with you that natural gas transportation will help, but to a point.

But remember three things:
1) Natural gas will also exhibit "Peak Gas" one or two decades after "Peak Oil".
2) Conventional natural gas reserve declines are much steeper than oil reserves.
3) Non-conventional gas fields exhibit an even faster decline, up to 50% to 80% reserve decline after only one year. Larry Bellehumeur's SA article of August 18, 2009 had an interesting discussion around this point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165726-why-exxon-should-significantly-increase-its-dividend?source=feed#comment-712913 712913
"Cnooc challenging Exxon over Ghana oil""

www.marketwatch.com/st...

This is exactly why it is good that Exxon is hoarding cash. The Chinese have trillions in USD. Only totally solvent companies with cash surpluses like XOM or CVX can challenge the Chinese majors like PTR and CNOOC and guarnatee the US access to what-ever little oil is left in the world.]]> Mon, 12 Oct 2009 05:56:47 -0400
"Cnooc challenging Exxon over Ghana oil""

www.marketwatch.com/st...

This is exactly why it is good that Exxon is hoarding cash. The Chinese have trillions in USD. Only totally solvent companies with cash surpluses like XOM or CVX can challenge the Chinese majors like PTR and CNOOC and guarnatee the US access to what-ever little oil is left in the world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165856-o-canada-part-iii-black-gold-natural-gas-and-growing-dividends-too?source=feed#comment-712389 712389
I would recommend the following additional Canadian petrocompanies:

1) Encana, major gas producer in Canada & USA, dividend =2.7%
2) Suncor, 40 yrs oil sands reserves, low debt, dividend = 1.1%

Income Trusts
1) Canadian Oil Sands, 40 yrs oil sands reserves, low debt, dividend = 3%
2) Enerplus, 45% gas & 55% oil, dividend =9%
3) Penn West , 30% gas & 70%oil ,dividend =10.5%]]> Sun, 11 Oct 2009 08:25:20 -0400
I would recommend the following additional Canadian petrocompanies:

1) Encana, major gas producer in Canada & USA, dividend =2.7%
2) Suncor, 40 yrs oil sands reserves, low debt, dividend = 1.1%

Income Trusts
1) Canadian Oil Sands, 40 yrs oil sands reserves, low debt, dividend = 3%
2) Enerplus, 45% gas & 55% oil, dividend =9%
3) Penn West , 30% gas & 70%oil ,dividend =10.5%]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165726-why-exxon-should-significantly-increase-its-dividend?source=feed#comment-712094 712094
I have XOM and CVX as my main US holdings, but I agree having several foreign oil companies in your portfolio as a hedge against a falling USD and future windfall taxes.

In Canada, COSWF and ERF are great income picks that pay good dividends as well as ECA for growth as natural gas picks up.

In Europe I think BP, TOT, RDS and STO are all good bets.

PTR (China) and PBR (Brazil) are probably safe bets and have great potential.

The only region I would not touch is Russia. You probably know all too well about the forced renegotiations on BP with its TNK venture, I would avoid Gazprom and Lukoil like the plague. I can see Putin and gang screw foreign investors again once oil and gas prices pick up.]]> Sat, 10 Oct 2009 21:06:39 -0400
I have XOM and CVX as my main US holdings, but I agree having several foreign oil companies in your portfolio as a hedge against a falling USD and future windfall taxes.

In Canada, COSWF and ERF are great income picks that pay good dividends as well as ECA for growth as natural gas picks up.

In Europe I think BP, TOT, RDS and STO are all good bets.

PTR (China) and PBR (Brazil) are probably safe bets and have great potential.

The only region I would not touch is Russia. You probably know all too well about the forced renegotiations on BP with its TNK venture, I would avoid Gazprom and Lukoil like the plague. I can see Putin and gang screw foreign investors again once oil and gas prices pick up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165726-why-exxon-should-significantly-increase-its-dividend?source=feed#comment-711523 711523
Buying the Kosmos stake in Ghana at $4 billion is chump change for Exxon. Exxon earns $40 billion profit per year and the Ghana stake would take them only 5 weeks to pay off in full.

I can see the "seven sisters" reunited as well in the near future. Already Exxon has swallowed up Mobil and Chevron has had Texaco and Gulf under their banner for a while. Exxon + Chevron is a definitely possibility. The non-US seven sister members like BP, Shell and the eighth sister Total (former CFP) might form a European super oil company. A XOM/CVX plus BP/RDS/TOT merger might be a bit trickier because of all the potential anti-trust issues. But then again American Lucent (former ATT) merged with French company Alcatel.]]> Sat, 10 Oct 2009 08:39:53 -0400
Buying the Kosmos stake in Ghana at $4 billion is chump change for Exxon. Exxon earns $40 billion profit per year and the Ghana stake would take them only 5 weeks to pay off in full.

I can see the "seven sisters" reunited as well in the near future. Already Exxon has swallowed up Mobil and Chevron has had Texaco and Gulf under their banner for a while. Exxon + Chevron is a definitely possibility. The non-US seven sister members like BP, Shell and the eighth sister Total (former CFP) might form a European super oil company. A XOM/CVX plus BP/RDS/TOT merger might be a bit trickier because of all the potential anti-trust issues. But then again American Lucent (former ATT) merged with French company Alcatel.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165726-why-exxon-should-significantly-increase-its-dividend?source=feed#comment-710257 710257
I agree the CEO at Exxon is overpaid, but Exxonmobil's finances are completely in order. Now, compare this to the CEO salaries in the following banking and investment firms in 2008.

1) Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., $42.9 million
2) Kenneth Chenault, American Express Co., $42.9 million
3) Vikram Pandit, Citigroup Inc., $38.2 million
4) Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase & Co., $35.7 million

As a shareholder of Exxon, I say I got my money's worth. If I were a shareholder of bank or investment firm I would say I was cheated.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:06:32 -0400
I agree the CEO at Exxon is overpaid, but Exxonmobil's finances are completely in order. Now, compare this to the CEO salaries in the following banking and investment firms in 2008.

1) Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., $42.9 million
2) Kenneth Chenault, American Express Co., $42.9 million
3) Vikram Pandit, Citigroup Inc., $38.2 million
4) Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase & Co., $35.7 million

As a shareholder of Exxon, I say I got my money's worth. If I were a shareholder of bank or investment firm I would say I was cheated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165726-why-exxon-should-significantly-increase-its-dividend?source=feed#comment-710195 710195
I have to disagree with you that investments in oil companies are all going to zero for several reasons:

1) All major oil companies are continuously buying up their competitors or new reserves (Exxon in Ghana, Shell in Australia, and everyone is a player in the Canadian oil sands), but I agree this is a losing game that ends in 10 to 20 yrs.

2) All major oil companies are buying back their shares. They are shrinking their share base. Exxon spends half its money (30 billion / yr) on share buybacks. At the current rate, Exxon will be a private company before 2020. Every buyback campaign cranks up the share value.

3) I am a believer that significant advances in alternative energy will come from big oil companies. They all know peak oil is real. CEO's from Total, BP, Chevron, etc. have all publicly admitted this. Their current spending on alternative technology is small at the moment, but they have they have money to scale up production when the time comes. You have Exxon investing algae, Chevron in biobutanol, Shell in biofuels &hydrogen, Total in biomass, GTL & hydrogen and BP in wind, solar & biofuels. Unlike the internet revolution where quantum leaps came from two guys working in their garage, alternative energy technology needs big money to advance.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 09:26:56 -0400
I have to disagree with you that investments in oil companies are all going to zero for several reasons:

1) All major oil companies are continuously buying up their competitors or new reserves (Exxon in Ghana, Shell in Australia, and everyone is a player in the Canadian oil sands), but I agree this is a losing game that ends in 10 to 20 yrs.

2) All major oil companies are buying back their shares. They are shrinking their share base. Exxon spends half its money (30 billion / yr) on share buybacks. At the current rate, Exxon will be a private company before 2020. Every buyback campaign cranks up the share value.

3) I am a believer that significant advances in alternative energy will come from big oil companies. They all know peak oil is real. CEO's from Total, BP, Chevron, etc. have all publicly admitted this. Their current spending on alternative technology is small at the moment, but they have they have money to scale up production when the time comes. You have Exxon investing algae, Chevron in biobutanol, Shell in biofuels &hydrogen, Total in biomass, GTL & hydrogen and BP in wind, solar & biofuels. Unlike the internet revolution where quantum leaps came from two guys working in their garage, alternative energy technology needs big money to advance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165726-why-exxon-should-significantly-increase-its-dividend?source=feed#comment-710035 710035
I would like to see Exxon increase its dividend as well. But I would prefer Exxon keeps its immaculate balance sheet over a higher dividend payment. Exxon has a higher credit rating than the US government at the moment. I think the best investments in big oil are Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell and Total.

I do not like Chesapeake or ConocoPhilips that are over extended in debt. I am quite surprised to see COP and CHK rising every day while XOM and CVX stay dormant. ]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 07:47:17 -0400
I would like to see Exxon increase its dividend as well. But I would prefer Exxon keeps its immaculate balance sheet over a higher dividend payment. Exxon has a higher credit rating than the US government at the moment. I think the best investments in big oil are Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell and Total.

I do not like Chesapeake or ConocoPhilips that are over extended in debt. I am quite surprised to see COP and CHK rising every day while XOM and CVX stay dormant. ]]>